john cage bubblegum
Jr. Member
Posts: 361
Political Matrix
E: -6.58, S: -6.96
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« on: September 05, 2018, 03:06:44 PM » |
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I mean, given the significant amount of tied polls, and the recent inclusion of high quality polling, this race is clearly a pure toss-up *right now*.
However, I think it's reasonable to give Nelson the edge in this race, assuming no major shift in the national environment toward the Republicans. Recent history suggests that incumbents like Nelson almost always win in wave mid-terms. And of course, just because something's happened historically doesn't mean it can't go differently this year. That's why I'd give Nelson the edge, as opposed to viewing him as an overwhelming favorite.
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