Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

[Adam Griffin]

^^^ Curious what happened in Langlade...

[Doimper]

The Northern part of the improved for Walker, but not to the level he lost in the burbs. I might look at Walker's swing from 14-18 and population growth this decade by county. I'd be interested to see if there is any correlation.

#realignment

You have to wonder if a Madison/Milwaukee/WOW coalition represents the distant future of the Wisconsin Democrats.

LMAO, that'd be something to witness.

By the standards of Wisconsin electoral politics, yeah, but it's not like a suburb/urban vs. rural split is uncommon in broader American politics.

[Gass3268]

^^^ Curious what happened in Langlade...

Haha yeah, Langade makes no sense.

[Gass3268]

The Northern part of the improved for Walker, but not to the level he lost in the burbs. I might look at Walker's swing from 14-18 and population growth this decade by county. I'd be interested to see if there is any correlation.

#realignment

You have to wonder if a Madison/Milwaukee/WOW coalition represents the distant future of the Wisconsin Democrats.

It really is. We nationally we are really heading towards urban/suburban vs rural split or a college educated vs non-college educated split, then Wisconsin will go from being generally split East to West to being split North to South.

[IceSpear]

The Northern part of the improved for Walker, but not to the level he lost in the burbs. I might look at Walker's swing from 14-18 and population growth this decade by county. I'd be interested to see if there is any correlation.

Looks like some of that Trump WOW erosion was permanent. Baldwin's numbers in WOW were simply stunning as well. RIP hofoid.

[lfromnj]

The Northern part of the improved for Walker, but not to the level he lost in the burbs. I might look at Walker's swing from 14-18 and population growth this decade by county. I'd be interested to see if there is any correlation.

Looks like some of that Trump WOW erosion was permanent. Baldwin's numbers in WOW were simply stunning as well. RIP hofoid.

Washington looks like it hold on for a while but Ozaukee will vote democrat statewide in a non landslide election by 2036 atleast.

[Gass3268]

The Northern part of the improved for Walker, but not to the level he lost in the burbs. I might look at Walker's swing from 14-18 and population growth this decade by county. I'd be interested to see if there is any correlation.

Looks like some of that Trump WOW erosion was permanent. Baldwin's numbers in WOW were simply stunning as well. RIP hofoid.

Washington looks like it hold on for a while but Ozaukee will vote democrat statewide in a non landslide election by 2036 atleast.

Evers won Ozaukee last year in a non-partisan race.

[Oryxslayer]

The Northern part of the improved for Walker, but not to the level he lost in the burbs. I might look at Walker's swing from 14-18 and population growth this decade by county. I'd be interested to see if there is any correlation.

Looks like some of that Trump WOW erosion was permanent. Baldwin's numbers in WOW were simply stunning as well. RIP hofoid.

Washington looks like it hold on for a while but Ozaukee will vote democrat statewide in a non landslide election by 2036 atleast.

Evers won Ozaukee last year in a non-partisan race.

Mind you that was a landslide election, but the point is still somewhat true. Traditional D landslides always swept everything but WOW+a few SW counties, so Ozaukee breaking that historical alignment was noticeable. I'm interested in seeing how firmly Ozaukee voted for Grothman, considering that race was somewhat competitive.

[Gass3268]

I'm looking right now at the municipal data in Waukesha County, here are the %'s in some of the biggest cities/villages in the county in the Senate Race:

Brookfield (Vukmir's hometown): 59.60%-40.31% (19.30%)
Menomonee Falls: 57.45%-42.41% (15.04%)
Muskego: 65.90%-33.99% (31.91%)
New Berlin: 59.16%-40.70% (18.46%)
Waukesha: 52.38%-47.51% (4.81%)

That City of Waukesha number is nuts.

[Gass3268]

The Northern part of the improved for Walker, but not to the level he lost in the burbs. I might look at Walker's swing from 14-18 and population growth this decade by county. I'd be interested to see if there is any correlation.

Looks like some of that Trump WOW erosion was permanent. Baldwin's numbers in WOW were simply stunning as well. RIP hofoid.

Washington looks like it hold on for a while but Ozaukee will vote democrat statewide in a non landslide election by 2036 atleast.

Evers won Ozaukee last year in a non-partisan race.

Mind you that was a landslide election, but the point is still somewhat true. Traditional D landslides always swept everything but WOW+a few SW counties, so Ozaukee breaking that historical alignment was noticeable. I'm interested in seeing how firmly Ozaukee voted for Grothman, considering that race was somewhat competitive.

Grothman won Ozaukee County 60.28%-39.64%.

[Gass3268]

Has anyone heard about this???

http://www.dailyjournal.net/2018/11/08/wi-election-2018-14th-assembly/

Want to know the best part about this? This is the seat that Walker used to represent in the State Assembly.

[libertpaulian]

Has anyone heard about this???

http://www.dailyjournal.net/2018/11/08/wi-election-2018-14th-assembly/

Want to know the best part about this? This is the seat that Walker used to represent in the State Assembly.

George HW Bush's, Newt Gingrich's, and now Scott Walker's legislative seats are all represented by Democrats come January.  Crazy world.

[Scottholes 2.0]

Has anyone heard about this???

http://www.dailyjournal.net/2018/11/08/wi-election-2018-14th-assembly/

Want to know the best part about this? This is the seat that Walker used to represent in the State Assembly.

I kept telling Hofoid that the GOP margins in the WOW counties were going to go down post-Trump, but he just flat-out denied it!

[MasterJedi]

Has anyone heard about this???

http://www.dailyjournal.net/2018/11/08/wi-election-2018-14th-assembly/

Want to know the best part about this? This is the seat that Walker used to represent in the State Assembly.

I kept telling Hofoid that the GOP margins in the WOW counties were going to go down post-Trump, but he just flat-out denied it!

Remember, Calumet and Manitowac County would overcome the 45k ballots outstanding in Milwaukee!

[Sestak]

Has anyone heard about this???

http://www.dailyjournal.net/2018/11/08/wi-election-2018-14th-assembly/

Want to know the best part about this? This is the seat that Walker used to represent in the State Assembly.

George HW Bush's, Newt Gingrich's, and now Scott Walker's legislative seats are all represented by Democrats come January.  Crazy world.

don't forget hasterts.

Hastert’s has ben held by Dems ever since he resigned (IL-11 now)

[Gass3268]

^^^ Curious what happened in Langlade...

Haha yeah, Langade makes no sense.

I looked directly at Langade, I think it swung to Walker by about 1 point.

[Gass3268]

Has anyone heard about this???

http://www.dailyjournal.net/2018/11/08/wi-election-2018-14th-assembly/

It' means that a Democrat actually represents a sliver of Waukesha County. Not sure the last time that happened in the state legislature.

The suburban erosion is going to turn WI really ugly for Republicans. Western WI doesn't show any notable signs of movement, while Dane and MKE keep growing. If Republicans lose a significant share of their WOW support, which is what keeps them afloat and competitive, I don't see them doing well in the future.

The Northern part of the improved for Walker, but not to the level he lost in the burbs. I might look at Walker's swing from 14-18 and population growth this decade by county. I'd be interested to see if there is any correlation.

Here we go, looks like there was some correlation between population growth and the swing in the Governor's race:

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Has anyone heard about this???

http://www.dailyjournal.net/2018/11/08/wi-election-2018-14th-assembly/

It' means that a Democrat actually represents a sliver of Waukesha County. Not sure the last time that happened in the state legislature.

The suburban erosion is going to turn WI really ugly for Republicans. Western WI doesn't show any notable signs of movement, while Dane and MKE keep growing. If Republicans lose a significant share of their WOW support, which is what keeps them afloat and competitive, I don't see them doing well in the future.

The Northern part of the improved for Walker, but not to the level he lost in the burbs. I might look at Walker's swing from 14-18 and population growth this decade by county. I'd be interested to see if there is any correlation.

Here we go, looks like there was some correlation between population growth and the swing in the Governor's race:

Is there a list of the counties that were above or below that that line? Hard to tell in that graph. A list of residuals would be good.

[Gass3268]

County   Residual
ADAMS   -5.37%
ASHLAND   -2.52%
BARRON   0.21%
BAYFIELD   -5.18%
BROWN   1.96%
BUFFALO   -0.44%
BURNETT   -7.47%
CALUMET   5.04%
CHIPPEWA   -3.89%
CLARK   -0.28%
COLUMBIA   1.18%
CRAWFORD   -2.84%
DANE   -0.62%
DODGE   2.67%
DOOR   5.60%
DOUGLAS   -2.59%
DUNN   0.63%
EAU CLAIRE   3.26%
FLORENCE   -4.15%
FOND DU LAC   0.88%
FOREST   -3.94%
GRANT   -1.70%
GREEN   5.17%
GREEN LAKE   2.14%
IOWA   5.61%
IRON   8.47%
JACKSON   -4.99%
JEFFERSON   3.74%
JUNEAU   -7.64%
KENOSHA   3.14%
KEWAUNEE   0.48%
LA CROSSE   3.70%
LAFAYETTE   -0.79%
LANGLADE   1.03%
LINCOLN   -3.02%
MANITOWOC   3.66%
MARATHON   -0.20%
MARINETTE   -2.98%
MARQUETTE   -2.86%
MENOMINEE   -8.47%
MILWAUKEE   5.97%
MONROE   -5.15%
OCONTO   -4.85%
ONEIDA   -1.83%
OUTAGAMIE   2.29%
OZAUKEE   9.83%
PEPIN   2.31%
PIERCE   0.43%
POLK   -1.95%
PORTAGE   1.32%
PRICE   -2.39%
RACINE   1.94%
RICHLAND   7.45%
ROCK   2.78%
RUSK   -3.77%
SAUK   0.43%
SAWYER   -7.86%
SHAWANO   0.05%
SHEBOYGAN   7.74%
ST. CROIX   5.08%
TAYLOR   -1.67%
TREMPEALEAU   -8.16%
VERNON   -4.90%
VILAS   -5.50%
WALWORTH   5.25%
WASHBURN   -3.43%
WASHINGTON   2.59%
WAUKESHA   7.54%
WAUPACA   1.90%
WAUSHARA   -4.00%
WINNEBAGO   3.58%
WOOD   0.35%

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

County   Residual
ADAMS   -5.37%
ASHLAND   -2.52%
BARRON   0.21%
BAYFIELD   -5.18%
BROWN   1.96%
BUFFALO   -0.44%
BURNETT   -7.47%
CALUMET   5.04%
CHIPPEWA   -3.89%
CLARK   -0.28%
COLUMBIA   1.18%
CRAWFORD   -2.84%
DANE   -0.62%
DODGE   2.67%
DOOR   5.60%
DOUGLAS   -2.59%
DUNN   0.63%
EAU CLAIRE   3.26%
FLORENCE   -4.15%
FOND DU LAC   0.88%
FOREST   -3.94%
GRANT   -1.70%
GREEN   5.17%
GREEN LAKE   2.14%
IOWA   5.61%
IRON   8.47%
JACKSON   -4.99%
JEFFERSON   3.74%
JUNEAU   -7.64%
KENOSHA   3.14%
KEWAUNEE   0.48%
LA CROSSE   3.70%
LAFAYETTE   -0.79%
LANGLADE   1.03%
LINCOLN   -3.02%
MANITOWOC   3.66%
MARATHON   -0.20%
MARINETTE   -2.98%
MARQUETTE   -2.86%
MENOMINEE   -8.47%
MILWAUKEE   5.97%
MONROE   -5.15%
OCONTO   -4.85%
ONEIDA   -1.83%
OUTAGAMIE   2.29%
OZAUKEE   9.83%
PEPIN   2.31%
PIERCE   0.43%
POLK   -1.95%
PORTAGE   1.32%
PRICE   -2.39%
RACINE   1.94%
RICHLAND   7.45%
ROCK   2.78%
RUSK   -3.77%
SAUK   0.43%
SAWYER   -7.86%
SHAWANO   0.05%
SHEBOYGAN   7.74%
ST. CROIX   5.08%
TAYLOR   -1.67%
TREMPEALEAU   -8.16%
VERNON   -4.90%
VILAS   -5.50%
WALWORTH   5.25%
WASHBURN   -3.43%
WASHINGTON   2.59%
WAUKESHA   7.54%
WAUPACA   1.90%
WAUSHARA   -4.00%
WINNEBAGO   3.58%
WOOD   0.35%

I'm gonna put this on Excel later on and sort by regions. This data is juicy. 

[Gass3268]

Some of the discussions about what restrictions they might place on the Governor

Most of these are about restricting some of the rule making ability of the execurtive branch and preventing Evers from doing anything to alter the voter ID law or Act 10 plus proecting Wisconsin Economic Development Corp, as Evers wanted to bring back the state's Commerce Department. The legislature is clearly not showing good faith here, but I don't think we are looking at North Carolina style awfulness. Still have to wait and see for the lame duck to be sure.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/banditelli/status/1060375618041212928

[Adam Griffin]

^^^ Curious what happened in Langlade...

Haha yeah, Langade makes no sense.

I looked directly at Langade, I think it swung to Walker by about 1 point.

Atlas shows Walker won Langlade by 30.1 in 2014; NYT is showing Walker won it by 18.5 in 2018.

[Gass3268]

^^^ Curious what happened in Langlade...

Haha yeah, Langade makes no sense.

I looked directly at Langade, I think it swung to Walker by about 1 point.

Atlas shows Walker won Langlade by 30.1 in 2014; NYT is showing Walker won it by 18.5 in 2018.

I got Walker 61.66% | Evers 30.50% for a 31.17% margin and a 1.03% Swing to Walker.

You can see the results here

[Adam Griffin]

^^^ Curious what happened in Langlade...

Haha yeah, Langade makes no sense.

I looked directly at Langade, I think it swung to Walker by about 1 point.

Atlas shows Walker won Langlade by 30.1 in 2014; NYT is showing Walker won it by 18.5 in 2018.

I got Walker 61.66% | Evers 30.50% for a 31.17% margin and a 1.03% Swing to Walker.

You can see the results here

Well, that appears to be correct: must be a glitch on NYT then. Makes a lot more sense!