Irish general election, 26th Feb 2016

[Antonio the Sixth]

What is the date for the elections? I thought the rule was to put in in the thread title.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Oh dear, is Epic Fáil actually surging?

[Antonio the Sixth]

23% for Epic Fáil would still be quite a lot more than polls predicted a month or so ago, though?

[Antonio the Sixth]

So... we're not getting anything real at all today? Not even a national first pref count?

Was it like that in 2011 too? For some reason I remembered that counting had started on the night itself.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So... we're not getting anything real at all today? Not even a national first pref count?

Was it like that in 2011 too? For some reason I remembered that counting had started on the night itself.

Counting proper begins at 9AM GMT, as it always does.

Well, that sucks.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Jesus F**king Christ, this is depressing.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Jesus F**king Christ, this is depressing.

But on the flipside...there's no way these results hold, right? This seems to me like the exact sort of result that would result in a revote.

...which will result in a FF landslide and return Ireland to the dark age of Ahern.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is there any chance Social Democrats might end up with more seats than Labour? That would be a nice silver lining to this whole mess.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is there any chance Social Democrats could win more seats? It seems one of them could pull it off in Dublin Central.

[Antonio the Sixth]

What the hell are Dublin Bay North and Kerry doing?

[Antonio the Sixth]

What the hell are Dublin Bay North and Kerry doing?

..and just as I posted that, Kerry is in.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Gannon out

[Antonio the Sixth]

So the final first pref count is:
FG: 25.5% (-10.6)
FF: 24.3% (+6.9)
Ind: 17.2% (+4.6)
SF: 13.8% (+3.9)
Labor: 6.6% (-12.8)
AAA-PBP: 3.9% (+1.2)
SD: 3.0%
Green: 2.7% (+0.9)
Renua: 2.2%

[Antonio the Sixth]

"FF to demand Taoiseach's office in any deal"? Even though they clearly came in second? Dear Lord, their 2011 disaster hasn't shaken their sense of entitlement one bit!

[Antonio the Sixth]

Based on the remaining constituencies, it seems like the range of possible outcomes is something like that:

FG 49-52
FF 40-43
SF 20-26
Ind 20-22
Lab 6-8

[Antonio the Sixth]

Based on the remaining constituencies, it seems like the range of possible outcomes is something like that:

FG 49-52
FF 40-43
SF 20-26
Ind 20-22
Lab 6-8

FG 49-52
FF 43-45
SF 22-24
Ind 22-24
Lab 6-8

[Antonio the Sixth]

Thanks for the answers. One other question just for fun: which politician/party is equivalent to Sanders/Paul? (i.e. They have a lot of young, loud supporters and do much better on the internet than in real life?)

In the last year the Social Democrats have sort of fit into that pattern.

I think SF fit that better actually since the Social Democrats actually did do very well whereas SF kind of deflated in the last few months.

I support the Social Democrats and would have voted for them, but even with low expectations I wouldn't call getting 3% and 3 seats "doing very well".

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well yeah, Renua's obliteration is one of the few silver linings of this election.

If this is a good result for them, do you think Social Democrats might have room to grow in the future? Could they establish a durable presence in Irish politics?

[Antonio the Sixth]

If this is a good result for them, do you think Social Democrats might have room to grow in the future? Could they establish a durable presence in Irish politics?

Still interested in an answer on that.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So, the 9 seats left should break down:
- 1 FG basically guaranteed (L.-W.)
- 1 Ind basically guaranteed (L.-W.)
- 1 FF basically guaranteed (DBN)
- 1 seat that could go either FF, FG, SF or Lab (L.-W.)
- 3 seats to split between Ind, SF, Lab, and AAA-PBP. One of the two independents will probably get in (DBN)
- 1 seat that could go either FF or AAA-PBP (DSC)
- 1 seat that could go either FG or Ind (DSW)

This would give:
FG 50-52
FF 44-46
SF 22-23
Ind 20-23
Lab 6-7
AAA-PBP 5-7

[Antonio the Sixth]

God, it's been two days and 7 seats have yet to be filled...

[Antonio the Sixth]

For some reason, RTE doesn't show the count results in Longford-Westmeath anymore.

Can someone post the numbers at which it's standing right now?

[Antonio the Sixth]

For some reason, RTE doesn't show the count results in Longford-Westmeath anymore.

Can someone post the numbers at which it's standing right now?

The last declared count is still Count 13.


Longford-Westmeath
Seats: 4
Quota: 11,056

	Count 12	Count 13
Troy (FF)	Elected (Ct.1)
Moran (IndAll)	10,108	11,120
Burke (FG)	7,629	7,877
Hogan (SF)	6,641	7,370
Bannon (FG)	5,947	7,077
Penrose (Lab)	6,356	7,058
Gerety-Quinn (FF)	5,907

Count 14 is the distribution of Moran's surplus, which reported puts Penrose very narrowly ahead.
Prior to Count 14 being declared, Bannon was granted a recount which has been going on for some time.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/longford-westmeath-just-three-votes-separate-battling-fg-and-labour-tds/


Our own correspondent at the count suggests Penrose's lead may be as robust as 7.


At any rate, the count was suspended late last night at 02.15.
It is scheduled to recommence later this today at 14.30.

Haha, what a mess.

So Kevinstat's assessment still valid. FG is all but assured one more seat, and the final one could go to either SF, Labour or FG in that order of likelihood.

[Antonio the Sixth]

What the hell is going on with this recount? Shouldn't it have been finished by today?

[Antonio the Sixth]

RTE says Penrose has been elected.