OH-14: LaTourette won't seek re-election

[krazen1211]

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2012/07/30/Steve-LaTourette-no-re-election.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

A source said LaTourette is leaving because of a dispute with House leadership about future committee assignments.




Good thing Democrats have a no name loser here. What a mess; I wonder how Boehner's point guy has an issue with his committee assignments.

[krazen1211]

(A) Notwithstanding section 3513.31 of the Revised Code, if a person nominated in a primary election as a party candidate for the office of representative to congress for election at the next general election withdraws as such candidate prior to the ninetieth day before the day of such general election, or dies prior to the ninetieth day before the day of such general election, the vacancy in the party nomination so created shall be filled by a special election held in accordance with division (B) of this section.

[Miles]

RRH confirms it.

The Democrat running here got 32% in 2000 and 28% in 2002...

[Gass3268]

RRH confirms it.

The Democrat running here got 32% in 2000 and 28% in 2002...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KX5jNnDMfxA

[Mr.Phips]

Democrats should be trying to get Dennis Eckert or Ed Feighan to run here.  They both represented much of this district in the 1980's and were very popular there.  

[TJ in Oregon]

Depending on who runs for the Republicans this could be a huge loss for the GOP. LaTourette was basically a guaranteed win in a somewhat marginal seat.

My personal choice for the Republican to run in his place would be former State Senator Matt Dolan, who could serve a similar role as a consistent moderate Republican voice fitting well with his district.

[Keystone Phil]

Naso used to (and may once again) live in this district...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Congress could certainly do with some... what was it again... vigour and decisiveness.

[Torie]

LaTourette must have got really mad. Still the CD has a plus 4% GOP PVI. I doubt it will flip this year assuming the Pubs put up someone competent.

[mondale84]

Safe Dem

[TJ in Oregon]

LaTourette must have got really mad. Still the CD has a plus 4% GOP PVI. I doubt it will flip this year assuming the Pubs put up someone competent.

I suppose that seemingly ridiculous path of Republican municipalities the GOP used to connect Cleveland and Akron in the VRA black district is looking better than ever considering going further west allowed OH-14 to scoop up some deep red suburbs in the Cuyahoga Valley. It seemed dumb at the time but might have actually saved the seat.

[BigSkyBob]

LaTourette must have got really mad. Still the CD has a plus 4% GOP PVI. I doubt it will flip this year assuming the Pubs put up someone competent.

I suppose that seemingly ridiculous path of Republican municipalities the GOP used to connect Cleveland and Akron in the VRA black district is looking better than ever considering going further west allowed OH-14 to scoop up some deep red suburbs in the Cuyahoga Valley. It seemed dumb at the time but might have actually saved the seat.

The simple fact is that the political class is better at remapping than the armchair quarterbacks here. Many of the folks here started with a Black district linking Akron with Cleveland. They chose the most direct route. The map makers in the legislature took a more holistic approach.  They did a much better job.

[Torie]

LaTourette must have got really mad. Still the CD has a plus 4% GOP PVI. I doubt it will flip this year assuming the Pubs put up someone competent.

I suppose that seemingly ridiculous path of Republican municipalities the GOP used to connect Cleveland and Akron in the VRA black district is looking better than ever considering going further west allowed OH-14 to scoop up some deep red suburbs in the Cuyahoga Valley. It seemed dumb at the time but might have actually saved the seat.

Actually, no matter how you drew the LaTourette seat, it was always about 3.8% to 4.1% GOP PVI. If you don't do the cut to Akron as far west as it was done, you can pick up some territory on the CD's southern boundary from the Youngstown CD, or dig a bit more into the Akron burbs. The link actually used was a surprise, because the mappers wanting to avoid cutting townships and cities (except for the cut along the lake for OH-09 in Lorain County), was a surprise. Thus the link was fatter than expected. 

[TJ in Oregon]

LaTourette must have got really mad. Still the CD has a plus 4% GOP PVI. I doubt it will flip this year assuming the Pubs put up someone competent.

I suppose that seemingly ridiculous path of Republican municipalities the GOP used to connect Cleveland and Akron in the VRA black district is looking better than ever considering going further west allowed OH-14 to scoop up some deep red suburbs in the Cuyahoga Valley. It seemed dumb at the time but might have actually saved the seat.

Actually, no matter how you drew the LaTourette seat, it was always about 3.8% to 4.1% GOP PVI. If you don't do the cut to Akron as far west as it was done, you can pick up some territory on the CD's southern boundary from the Youngstown CD, or dig a bit more into the Akron burbs. The link actually used was a surprise, because the mappers wanting to avoid cutting townships and cities (except for the cut along the lake for OH-09 in Lorain County), was a surprise. Thus the link was fatter than expected. 

You could have drawn OH-11 down from Bedford to Akron via Walton Hills, Sagamore Hills Twp, and Boston Mills Twp without splitting municipalities at a fraction of the population from the route they drew. But in doing so, OH-14 would be ~R+3. By taking the western route they added a handful of very Republican Cuyahoga County suburbs instead of more marginal rural parts of Portage and Trumbull Counties. With a more easterly bridge, it becomes much more difficult to make OH-14 a McCain district (it can still be done but requires a hook-shaped cut into Portage County that really drives up the erosity of OH-13 and even then is barely a McCain district).

[Miles]

There's absolutely no chance that Blanchard is dropping out so that a stronger Democrat can run:

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[Torie]

LaTourette must have got really mad. Still the CD has a plus 4% GOP PVI. I doubt it will flip this year assuming the Pubs put up someone competent.

I suppose that seemingly ridiculous path of Republican municipalities the GOP used to connect Cleveland and Akron in the VRA black district is looking better than ever considering going further west allowed OH-14 to scoop up some deep red suburbs in the Cuyahoga Valley. It seemed dumb at the time but might have actually saved the seat.

Actually, no matter how you drew the LaTourette seat, it was always about 3.8% to 4.1% GOP PVI. If you don't do the cut to Akron as far west as it was done, you can pick up some territory on the CD's southern boundary from the Youngstown CD, or dig a bit more into the Akron burbs. The link actually used was a surprise, because the mappers wanting to avoid cutting townships and cities (except for the cut along the lake for OH-09 in Lorain County), was a surprise. Thus the link was fatter than expected.  

You could have drawn OH-11 down from Bedford to Akron via Walton Hills, Sagamore Hills Twp, and Boston Mills Twp without splitting municipalities at a fraction of the population from the route they drew. But in doing so, OH-14 would be ~R+3. By taking the western route they added a handful of very Republican Cuyahoga County suburbs instead of more marginal rural parts of Portage and Trumbull Counties. With a more easterly bridge, it becomes much more difficult to make OH-14 a McCain district (it can still be done but requires a hook-shaped cut into Portage County that really drives up the erosity of OH-13 and even then is barely a McCain district).

This little gem has a 3.7% GOP PVI.    Give me more time, and I probably can squeeze out another 15 Pub basis points. If I am allowed more cuts, I can get it up to 4.0% without much sweat.