Ontario 2018 election

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I have a feeling Jagmeet's win at the Federal level will help the Ontario NDP provincially in Peel region.  Perhaps his younger brother will run in Brampton East (the redistributed Bramalea Gore Malton)?  I'm not sure where he lives, but it would seem like a sure-win.

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I definitely think Singh could help the NDP in Brampton, I guess the question is does the NDP surge enough to win outright or does it just rise enough to split the votes enough so the PCs come up the middle as the PCs have a solid core of around 30% in Brampton and any gains the NDP makes will likely come at the expense of the Liberals not PCs.  Federally though I think he could do quite well there.  Also Surrey is another place to watch where I think Singh could help the NDP provided the BC NDP's approval ratings don't tank badly.

These are likely seats that would go PC in the next election (like they went for Harper federally), so even though technically it is a seat from the Liberal party, it's also a way to stop the PC majority.

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Deb Matthews and Liz Sandals are not running for re-election so huge blows as those are normally fairly safe Liberal ridings, but could be vulnerable based on current polling.  London North Centre could for any the three parties realistically and a key will be turnout amongst university students.  Strong turnout should benefit Liberals or NDP, while weak turnout PCs.  Guelph gets more interesting as Green Party leader Mike Schreiner is running there so maybe he will win.  Also with Tory support struggling to crack the 30% mark there, a three way split on the left makes it easier for them to win.  Will be interesting to see how many more pack it in.  Much as you saw with Harper in 2015, usually this is a bad sign that many don't like the party's chances.  The one exception where you had a lot of resignations but the party still won again was the BC Liberals in 2013, then again at the time of the resignations they were 20 points behind in the polls.

Schreiner's position on the selling of marijuana has been quite unpopular on the left, particularly amongst the Green party core.  I can't see him being a factor with those kinds of positions.

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Deb Matthews and Liz Sandals are not running for re-election so huge blows as those are normally fairly safe Liberal ridings, but could be vulnerable based on current polling.  London North Centre could for any the three parties realistically and a key will be turnout amongst university students.  Strong turnout should benefit Liberals or NDP, while weak turnout PCs.  Guelph gets more interesting as Green Party leader Mike Schreiner is running there so maybe he will win.  Also with Tory support struggling to crack the 30% mark there, a three way split on the left makes it easier for them to win.  Will be interesting to see how many more pack it in.  Much as you saw with Harper in 2015, usually this is a bad sign that many don't like the party's chances.  The one exception where you had a lot of resignations but the party still won again was the BC Liberals in 2013, then again at the time of the resignations they were 20 points behind in the polls.

Schreiner's position on the selling of marijuana has been quite unpopular on the left, particularly amongst the Green party core.  I can't see him being a factor with those kinds of positions.

He ran in Guelph in 2014 also and got nearly 20% there (and almost knocked the PCs into third, did knock the NDP into fourth) then, so clearly he is "a factor," even if he doesn't win.

I don't often consider candidates who receive less than 20% of the vote to be a "factor".  Admittedly, what each one of us considers to be "a factor" is a subjective thing.  My point is that Schreiner's positions lately have fallen more in line with the PC than they would with the ONDP and/or Liberal party.  And he holds different positions than the federal party, and very different than the BC Greens.  Schreiner is campaigning on lowering personal income taxes, wanting to privatize the soon-to-be-created CCBO, and has gotten into some trouble with Francophone communities in Ontario, as he advocates eliminating the French language school boards (he wants just 1, down from 4 current systems).  Hardly the picture of a "leftist" party, leader, or candidate.

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Exactly.  People said they same about Sam Osterhoff and his choice for Niagara West-Glanbrook, but at the end of the day didn't make a difference.  Candidates can make a minor difference but party label plays a much bigger role, particularly in urban ridings.  I find in rural ridings candidate tends to matter a bit more which is why for example Vic Fedelli has no trouble winning in Nipissing despite being a fairly solid Liberal riding federally or why Jim Bradley held on during the Mike Harris era in St. Catherines which is usually a bellwether.

Though Fedeli underperformed in 2014 (even if a split opposition gave the illusion otherwise), and  Bradley came close to losing in 2011.

Also, I still wouldn't knock ONDP dreams for Ottawa Centre "a delusion"--at least as long as federal memories of Paul Dewar remain fresh.  However, in light of polling numbers and recent OC provincial history, I also wouldn't rule out the PCs leapfrogging ahead of the NDP...

True enough, although Fidelli still did significantly better than Jay Aspin did federally whereas Harper outperformed Hudak in Ontario as a whole in vote percentages, only similar in seats as the splits were much weaker for him than Hudak.  I do think though Jim Bradley is vulnerable as the Liberals have never been as unpopular as they are now, that being said he probably gives the Liberals a bit of a boost.  Without him they would be toast in that riding whereas with him they have a fighting chance.

I think the NDP could win Ottawa Centre, one advantage they will have is they know they cannot win any other Ottawa ridings so volunteers from all Ottawa ridings will likely campaign here whereas for the Liberals they are fighting in multiple ridings and the PCs may not be competitive here but are in other Ottawa area ridings where they will be putting their resources.  Finally there is the strategic voting.  Although this may seem strange, I actually could see some PC voters in Ottawa Centre strategically voting NDP to defeat the OLP in that riding.  In 2006 I saw many Conservatives on the internet in NDP-Liberal battles saying they would vote NDP to get rid of the Liberals so you could have that here. 

The federal riding includes much of what is Nipissing-Temiskaming provincially, which is NDP territory.  Jay Aspen, or the federal Conservatives doing worse there is to be expected.

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Exactly.  People said they same about Sam Osterhoff and his choice for Niagara West-Glanbrook, but at the end of the day didn't make a difference.  Candidates can make a minor difference but party label plays a much bigger role, particularly in urban ridings.  I find in rural ridings candidate tends to matter a bit more which is why for example Vic Fedelli has no trouble winning in Nipissing despite being a fairly solid Liberal riding federally or why Jim Bradley held on during the Mike Harris era in St. Catherines which is usually a bellwether.

Though Fedeli underperformed in 2014 (even if a split opposition gave the illusion otherwise), and  Bradley came close to losing in 2011.

Also, I still wouldn't knock ONDP dreams for Ottawa Centre "a delusion"--at least as long as federal memories of Paul Dewar remain fresh.  However, in light of polling numbers and recent OC provincial history, I also wouldn't rule out the PCs leapfrogging ahead of the NDP...

True enough, although Fidelli still did significantly better than Jay Aspin did federally whereas Harper outperformed Hudak in Ontario as a whole in vote percentages, only similar in seats as the splits were much weaker for him than Hudak.  I do think though Jim Bradley is vulnerable as the Liberals have never been as unpopular as they are now, that being said he probably gives the Liberals a bit of a boost.  Without him they would be toast in that riding whereas with him they have a fighting chance.

I think the NDP could win Ottawa Centre, one advantage they will have is they know they cannot win any other Ottawa ridings so volunteers from all Ottawa ridings will likely campaign here whereas for the Liberals they are fighting in multiple ridings and the PCs may not be competitive here but are in other Ottawa area ridings where they will be putting their resources.  Finally there is the strategic voting.  Although this may seem strange, I actually could see some PC voters in Ottawa Centre strategically voting NDP to defeat the OLP in that riding.  In 2006 I saw many Conservatives on the internet in NDP-Liberal battles saying they would vote NDP to get rid of the Liberals so you could have that here. 

The federal riding includes much of what is Nipissing-Temiskaming provincially, which is NDP territory.  Jay Aspen, or the federal Conservatives doing worse there is to be expected.

Nipissing-Timiskaming is mostly Nipissing provincially with only a small portion in Timiskaming-Cochrane which votes NDP.  Nipissing has never gone NDP although in the past 30 years has usually gone Liberal federally and Tory provincially.  This was Mike Harris' old riding.  Also Anthony Rota was a popular Liberal MP and only narrowly lost in the 2011 meltdown.  He blamed the gun registry as a major reason as it was quite unpopular in this riding like much of Northern Ontario. 

In many ways North Bay is the dividing point with the NDP tending to do well north of that, but once you get south of it, it is more Central Ontario thus largely conservative with occasionally the Liberals pulling off upsets but never the NDP.

Provincially the riding has about 75000 people and federally around 90000, so it ads 15 thousand people.  I wouldn't say that is a "small portion".  And provincially the riding ends at North Bay, wheres the federal riding goes up into Temismaking Shores.  And I never said the NDP did well in North Bay, I'm just saying you would expect the Conservatives to have a tougher time in a riding where a large portion (about 15k people) are largely NDP supporters, people the provincial PCs don't have to worry about.

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Patrick Brown, leader of the Progressive Conservatives, released a plan that is much more progressive than conservative. 

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-election-pc-party-patrick-brown-platform-1.4420959

With all three parties looking to grab the centre-left vote, it's going to be tough for Andrea Horwath without something more drastic (i.e., eliminating funding for catholic schools?  free tuition for all?  etc).

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How many people in Ontario even know what it means to be an “urban progressive”? In my experience about 90% of voters don’t even know the difference between “right” and “left” in political terms

I think most people under 35 know the difference.  Think your comment applies much more to baby boomers. 
In terms of "urban progressives", i would hardly describe someone from London or Windsor as an "urban progressive".  Outside of DT-TO (and maybe Glebe-ites of Ottawa-Centre), much more ONDP support is populist and blue-collar.  Kind of more like the traditional Quebec socialist/left-ists with some libertarian in there (Let people do what they want to do..  BUT, you better help us when we need it).  This, of course, doesn't apply to DT Toronto elites who want big government, and want to be able to tell you what to do / what you can buy (and thereby limiting your right to do what you want).

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Kathleen Wynne is now suing Patrick Brown for defamation.  I'm not sure if this is a political decision, or if her campaign manager is ok with this, but this just re-establishes her as the establishment/elite candidate.  In the South-west and North, you take care of your own problems.  You don't sue when someone says something about you.  Only place this doesn't hurt her is the 416 and maybe downtown Ottawa.  (All just my opinion/alleged..  don't want her coming after me).

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Kathleen Wynne is now suing Patrick Brown for defamation.  I'm not sure if this is a political decision, or if her campaign manager is ok with this, but this just re-establishes her as the establishment/elite candidate.  In the South-west and North, you take care of your own problems.  You don't sue when someone says something about you.  Only place this doesn't hurt her is the 416 and maybe downtown Ottawa.  (All just my opinion/alleged..  don't want her coming after me).

Because Premier Patrick Brown would totally not do that....

Yes, apparently it's now 'elitist' to sue somebody for defamation of character.  I suspect the OP, though, only believes it's 'elitist' for somebody on the left to sue somebody for defamation of character.

I'm actually on the left of centre (labour/populist/libertarian left), and support Andrea Horwath's NDP.  It's not a right/left thing.  Union workers in Sudbury or Timmins are of the left, and would likely feel the same way.  Not sure if Patrick Brown would do the same thing, but he also comes off as elitist/establishment.  The only one out of the three that doesn't is Andrea (who is admittedly populist).

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The other thing with the NDP being at 28% (and tied for second) is that when people see that, they feel more like they aren't wasting their vote on the NDP, which could push them up further.  Do those 905 numbers include Hamilton?  Or is Hamilton included in the South-West?  If those 905 numbers don't include Hamilton, that is very high for the NDP in the 905.

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Now that Jagmeet's gone from Queen's Park (but not forgotten), it'll be *really* interesting to see what happens in Brampton in his absence--particularly given how his coattails lead to surprising second and near-second places in the other Brampton seats in 2014.  And consider that we're no longer dealing with 3 Brampton seats, but 5--and 6, if you include Malton.

OTOH the NDP 905 dilemma remains the same as always--on a municipal rather than prov-fed level, they have an infrastructure that's rudimentary at best...

I have a feeling Jagmeet will be campaigning alongside Andrea, particularly in the Peel region.  While Malton has the demographics for an NDP win, it contains only about 30% of the population; the Britannia area (West side of the riding) is much more wealthy (and not NDP friendly).  I could see the NDP keep Brampton East, and Brampton Centre is too close to call (they have a good shot), particularly at 28% across the province.  The other Brampton seats, not likely.

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People living in Toronto making over 100k a year can't even afford a McMasion in the city.

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Gilles Bisson has stated he will be running in the new Timmins ridings for the ONDP.
Guy Bourgouin, who appears to be a Francophone from Kapuskasing, will be seeking the ONDP nomination Mushkegowuk-James Bay.  No other candidates yet, but I really don't think in the case of the North-East anyway, that there will be an Indigenous candidate winning, as was the hope with the creating of the new ridings.

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I'm just a little worried for Gilles.  In the last election, in the transposed election results for just the city of Timmins (which is the new riding) from the 2014 election are as follow (from ElectionsPredictions/Kyle Hutton):

LIB    20.49%
PC     31.34%
NDP   45.98%
Green  1.97%

With a stronger PC candidate, higher PC polling, and the total angst against the Liberals in the North, it can be close.

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I'm surprised some of the other stuff that's happened in Ottawa (with other leaders) still hasn't been revealed (alleged / from what I've heard).

Looking at this politically, surely will hurt Brown.  Who knows if the party will survive this.  Doesn't body well for the NDP in Toronto (where would-be PC voters will go back to the Liberals), but helps their chances in the South West/North.  This may have been exactly what Kathleen Wynne needed, as sad as that is.

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Just curious, does Vic Fedeli speak French?  North Bay is probably the least French region of North-Eastern Ontario.

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Just curious, does Vic Fedeli speak French?  North Bay is probably the least French region of North-Eastern Ontario.

Not sure.  While federally one must speak French to be prime-minister, I think it is more of an asset as opposed to requirement Ontario premiers speak French.  Not sure that Wynne speaks much French and Harris and Davis certainly did not.  Don't think Howarth does either.

I understand that.  I just remember that Brown (along with Wynne) had agreed to a leaders debate in French this upcoming election (Horwath speaks barely any French).  Wynne's is ok, she can get by.  Guess it doesn't matter, I'm just curious.  There is almost always someone from R-C (or TFO) at press events with French questions, so it is a good thing.

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The odd thing about Etobicoke North is that while it is Ford stomping ground municipally, it is one of the safest Liberal seats (both provincially and federally) in Ontario.  I'm not 100% sure he would win, as a 2 way race would also motivate NDP voters to vote Liberal.  Let's not forget the PCs finished third here the last time around, and they only won during the Mike Harris government by a couple of points over the Liberals.

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Is there any way Brown creates/leads another party into the election if he isn't allowed to run for the leadership?

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The 20% for other in Northern Ontario in that poll likely includes the Northern Ontario Party.

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The 20% for other in Northern Ontario in that poll likely includes the Northern Ontario Party.

Who would even vote for them? Aside from my dad.

No idea, but I can't imagine what else would make the "other" option so unusually high. 

Anyway, doesn't a Doug Ford victory hurt Horwath in the Southwest and parts of the North, where the NDP support is much more blue collar populist?

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Just as I had suspected.  Etobicoke - Lakeshore went for Elliott.  This part of Etobicoke will not go for Ford, and Peter Milczyn will likely be the one (out of the 3 Etobicoke ridings) to stay red.

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The GTA vs. non-GTA difference is less pronounced than I think many would have suspected. 

What was expected exactly? You could have argued for Ford doing better in the GTA (more immigrants, familiarity) or outside (more blue collar).

I’m surprised how well Elliott did in Peel actually.

It's a little shocking that Elliott won Mississauga Malton,which is right next to Etobicoke-North, and has pretty much the same demographics.

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Yup, I'd place this as third highest target for the NDP in Brampton, probably all of Peel... After Brampton East and Brampton North. 

Brampton East - Jagmeet's brother is running, but I do believe Brampton Centre is next on their list in all of Peel.