OH: More Money Stuff (August)

[BuckeyeNut]

lol

Never a doubter, just never a believer.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I have this at Lean R (much closer to tilt R than Likely R) for now, but that could easily change.  Honestly, this may just come down to how big the Democratic wave is in Ohio (much like the SoS race), whereas the AG, Auditor, and (admitedly less confident about this one) Treasurer’s offices should flip even if the wave isn’t as big in Ohio as it is in most states.

[BuckeyeNut]

I think we pick up SOS before Treasurer. Clyde and Richardson are both strong, and while Sprague is weaker than LaRose, the fact of the matter is Richardson will have extra hurdles as a candidate of color. Does Richardson boost turnout in Cincinnati? Yes. Hamilton County in general? Yes. Maybe even in Warren County? Possibly. But looking at trends, he simply won't do as well in Trumbull and Mahoning, and even if, say, Zack Space and Sherrod Brown win back Monroe and Belmont, maybe even Jefferson, it's unlikely Richardson does.

[Ohioguy29]

I think we pick up SOS before Treasurer. Clyde and Richardson are both strong, and while Sprague is weaker than LaRose, the fact of the matter is Richardson will have extra hurdles as a candidate of color. Does Richardson boost turnout in Cincinnati? Yes. Hamilton County in general? Yes. Maybe even in Warren County? Possibly. But looking at trends, he simply won't do as well in Trumbull and Mahoning, and even if, say, Zack Space and Sherrod Brown win back Monroe and Belmont, maybe even Jefferson, it's unlikely Richardson does.

As a resident of the Cincinnati area, I don't see Richardson boosting turnout in Warren County. He's not well known outside of Cincinnati, and Warren County is very white and very racist.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I think we pick up SOS before Treasurer. Clyde and Richardson are both strong, and while Sprague is weaker than LaRose, the fact of the matter is Richardson will have extra hurdles as a candidate of color. Does Richardson boost turnout in Cincinnati? Yes. Hamilton County in general? Yes. Maybe even in Warren County? Possibly. But looking at trends, he simply won't do as well in Trumbull and Mahoning, and even if, say, Zack Space and Sherrod Brown win back Monroe and Belmont, maybe even Jefferson, it's unlikely Richardson does.

As a resident of the Cincinnati area, I don't see Richardson boosting turnout in Warren County. He's not well known outside of Cincinnati, and Warren County is very white and very racist.

This.  Shame the Republicans didn’t end up running Mingo   Oh well, hopefully Stinziano beats him in the Franklin County Auditor’s race.

[_]

Rest in peace Kucinich, freaking slaughtered

[BuckeyeNut]

I think we pick up SOS before Treasurer. Clyde and Richardson are both strong, and while Sprague is weaker than LaRose, the fact of the matter is Richardson will have extra hurdles as a candidate of color. Does Richardson boost turnout in Cincinnati? Yes. Hamilton County in general? Yes. Maybe even in Warren County? Possibly. But looking at trends, he simply won't do as well in Trumbull and Mahoning, and even if, say, Zack Space and Sherrod Brown win back Monroe and Belmont, maybe even Jefferson, it's unlikely Richardson does.

As a resident of the Cincinnati area, I don't see Richardson boosting turnout in Warren County. He's not well known outside of Cincinnati, and Warren County is very white and very racist.

This.  Shame the Republicans didn’t end up running Mingo   Oh well, hopefully Stinziano beats him in the Franklin County Auditor’s race.

I am very confident in Stinziano winning the Auditor's election. Mingo got 50% of the vote in 2014 and only won because a Libertarian got 5% of the vote. AFAIK, it's a two man race this year and I have a strong feeling Franklin County will give more votes to Democrats up and down the ballot than ever before.

Just look at OH-HD-21, which covers Dublin, Worthington, and some more conservative Townships. There were strongly contested primaries on both the Republican and Democratic side and Democrats got 53.8% of the primary vote share. This district has been R held since at least 1993. I have some small changes to make to my predictions post-primary, and one of them is changing OH-HD-21 from Tossup to Tilt D.

[Ohioguy29]

In Hamilton County, the county party's endorsed candidate for county commissioner, James Wolf, lost the primary to Stephanie Summerow Dumas. She has no campaign site, not even a social media account. All she has is a personal facebook and a crowdpac page that doesn't give much information. I was confident in us winning this with Wolf but if Dumas doesn't step up her game we might not do as well here as I originally thought. Here's hoping she gets it together. I do think it's about time we have a black person elected countywide, but she has to get elected for that to happen.

[BuckeyeNut]

Oh. My. God. Wolf lost? That's a damn shame.

[Ohioguy29]

Yeah, if I'd realized there was a chance of that happening I would've canvassed for him. At least I went out and voted for him. He would've been a great candidate.

[BuckeyeNut]

Yeah, if I'd realized there was a chance of that happening I would've canvassed for him. At least I went out and voted for him. He would've been a great candidate.

I didn't even realize that race was contested. Heard Mayor Wolf on the Ohio Democratic Podcast and thought he was great and the real hump was going to be winning in November. Remind me, is this an open seat?

[Ohioguy29]

Yeah, if I'd realized there was a chance of that happening I would've canvassed for him. At least I went out and voted for him. He would've been a great candidate.

I didn't even realize that race was contested. Heard Mayor Wolf on the Ohio Democratic Podcast and thought he was great and the real hump was going to be winning in November. Remind me, is this an open seat?

No, we'd be running against tea partier Chris Monzel. I didn't think it was a competitive primary at all. Dumas has name recognition from her previous run for commissioner and her tenure as Forest Park mayor, but I'm puzzled how she managed to win the nomination.

It's important to win this because Todd Portune is probably gonna retire within the next few years. Wolf wouldn't have had any problem doing it but I'm doubtful Dumas can if I'm being honest. It seems like she's not even trying.

[GMantis]

Map of Democratic and Republican primaries results (unofficial):

[TJ in Oregon]

Map of Democratic and Republican primaries results (unofficial):

The Dem map makes sense, Cordray did best in Central and western Ohio, where there is a low amount of Trumpiness, meanwhile Schiavoni/Kucinich were strongest in the industrial/Ohio River areas.

I have no idea how to interpret the Rep gubernatorial primary map. The assortment of counties won by Taylor have no obvious connection. The only thing I can think of is that DeWine has been in office for enough years that those counties are places with some miscellaneous grievance with something he or his office has done.

[BuckeyeNut]

Yeah, if I'd realized there was a chance of that happening I would've canvassed for him. At least I went out and voted for him. He would've been a great candidate.

I didn't even realize that race was contested. Heard Mayor Wolf on the Ohio Democratic Podcast and thought he was great and the real hump was going to be winning in November. Remind me, is this an open seat?

No, we'd be running against tea partier Chris Monzel. I didn't think it was a competitive primary at all. Dumas has name recognition from her previous run for commissioner and her tenure as Forest Park mayor, but I'm puzzled how she managed to win the nomination.

It's important to win this because Todd Portune is probably gonna retire within the next few years. Wolf wouldn't have had any problem doing it but I'm doubtful Dumas can if I'm being honest. It seems like she's not even trying.

Well, Pillich will probably run for Portune’s seat when he retires/resigns over health problems. She’s not done yet and is still sitting on $800k in state level campaign funds.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sherrod Brown who defeated Mike DeWine is an asset to Cordray.

[Ohioguy29]

Map of Democratic and Republican primaries results (unofficial):

The Dem map makes sense, Cordray did best in Central and western Ohio, where there is a low amount of Trumpiness, meanwhile Schiavoni/Kucinich were strongest in the industrial/Ohio River areas.

I have no idea how to interpret the Rep gubernatorial primary map. The assortment of counties won by Taylor have no obvious connection. The only thing I can think of is that DeWine has been in office for enough years that those counties are places with some miscellaneous grievance with something he or his office has done.

The southwest Ohio counties I think happened because this is where she ran ads. Not effective enough to deliver wins in DeWine's home base in the Dayton area, but the Cincinnati area has no particular loyalty to him and her branding was a good fit for the counties she won.

[GMantis]

The Dem map makes sense, Cordray did best in Central and western Ohio, where there is a low amount of Trumpiness, meanwhile Schiavoni/Kucinich were strongest in the industrial/Ohio River areas.

Maybe this explains the results for Kucinich, though the fact that Kucinich was mayor of Cleveland and Representative from a district in Cuyahoga was probably just as important (which makes his performance there really abysmal). On the other hand Schiavoni was a state Senator with a district composed of Mahoning and Columbiana.  Cordray also did worse in the Ohio river valley because  the fourth placed candidate, Bill O'Neill, achieved his best results in the southwestern corner of the state, despite him being once an appellate judge from northwestern Ohio (and his running mate is also from this region).

I have no idea how to interpret the Rep gubernatorial primary map. The assortment of counties won by Taylor have no obvious connection. The only thing I can think of is that DeWine has been in office for enough years that those counties are places with some miscellaneous grievance with something he or his office has done.

On the other hand, Taylor is from Summit county and was a member of the Ohio House with a district in that county, yet did no better there than her average performance in Ohio.

[CatoMinor]

Kucinich's statewide performance is about what I expected, strongest in Cleveland but not enough to really win anywhere. I had a feeling Kucinich was being way over hyped, at least more so than his candidacy warranted. A failed congressional primary following two failed Presidential bids, does not the best springboard to Governor.

I am sure Cordray can win, but I'm feeling this as tilting ever so slightly R at the moment.

[catographer]

Ohio Governor GOP Primary Map Explained:



Left is the 2016 Presidential primary, red is Kasich while orange is Trump. Right is 2018 gubernatorial primary, blue is DeWine, red is Taylor.

The GOP 2018 gov primary was essentially DeWine=Kasich, Taylor=Trump, except Taylor didn't have Trump's regional base in the southeast so her vote wasn't geographically concentrated. DeWine, like Kasich, was strongest in urban areas and the northwest. Taylor's pro-Trump strategy sort of worked, but she was just way too unpopular with the rest of the electorate (the vast majority). Also DeWine appealed to Trump primary voters too.

[Oryxslayer]

Ohio Governor GOP Primary Map Explained:



Left is the 2016 Presidential primary, red is Kasich while orange is Trump. Right is 2018 gubernatorial primary, blue is DeWine, red is Taylor.

The GOP 2018 gov primary was essentially DeWine=Kasich, Taylor=Trump, except Taylor didn't have Trump's regional base in the southeast so her vote wasn't geographically concentrated. DeWine, like Kasich, was strongest in urban areas and the northwest. Taylor's pro-Trump strategy sort of worked, but she was just way too unpopular with the rest of the electorate (the vast majority). Also DeWine appealed to Trump primary voters too.

This. Her coalition is basically the Trump one, minus a bunch of voters so it looks disconnected. But that doesn't explain Erie - does she have a running mate or any history there? Or is DeWine hated in Erie? Or is it just a one off result?

[junior chįmp]

Kasich Refuses To Endorse DeWine For Ohio Governor Over Medicaid Fears

[BuckeyeNut]

Kasich Refuses To Endorse DeWine For Ohio Governor Over Medicaid Fears

LOL.

I really dislike Kasich, because he's still a quite conservative Governor in comparison to his Sunday show persona, but good for him for standing by his convictions. I'd have voted for Bill O'Neill in the Fall had it come to it. Medicaid expansion is too important.

[_]

Kasich Refuses To Endorse DeWine For Ohio Governor Over Medicaid Fears

Good on Kasich!

[Young Conservative]

Kasich is such a showboat. He doesn't have any real positions.