2011 State Elections in Germany

[Franzl]

Amusing how hugely the Greens jumped after getting out of the CDU-led coalition.

Doesn't surprise me really....I suspect several "old style" Greens are going to come home without the prospect of entering into a CDU led coalition again.

[Tender Branson]

(At least Germany provides an interesting election year 2011, there are almost no good elections anywhere elese in the world next year, maybe Italy ...)

Uh; Spain (regionals), Finland, Turkey, Thailand, Ireland, Wales/Scotland/NI, Argentina, Peru, Denmark, Estonia, Nicaragua don't count?

I must have remembered the 2011 calendar slightly wrong then ...

What about Schleswig-Holstein ?

Will they vote in 2011 or 2012 now after the court ruling ?

(At least Germany provides an interesting election year 2011, there are almost no good elections anywhere elese in the world next year, maybe Italy ...)

September 2012 at the latest.

-------------------------------------------

First post-coalition breakup poll for Hamburg (FGW):

SPD 41%
CDU 22%
Greens 21%
Left 7%
FDP 4%
Others 5%

There's also another poll out today by Psephos for the Hamburger Abendblatt:

45% (+11) SPD
28%  (-15) CDU
14%   (+4) GAL
  6%    (nc) Left
  3%    (-2) FDP
  4%   (+2) Others

[Lief 🗽]

SPD is almost at an outright majority with those numbers.

[Franzl]

SPD is almost at an outright majority with those numbers.

I wouldn't really mind them getting it in Hamburg (although I doubt it).

[Hans-im-Glück]

New polls:

Baden-Württemberg,  Infratest dimap (02.12.2010)

CDU  39 %
SPD  18 %
GREEN  28 %
FDP  5 % 
LEFT  5 %
Others  5 %

No big changes. The Greens still in a all-time-high.


Germany, Infratest dimap (02.12.2010)

CDU/CSU  32 %
SPD  27 %
GREEN  21 %
FDP  5 %
LEFT  10 %
Others  5 %

Germany, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (03.12.2010)

CDU/CSU  34 % 
SPD  27 %
GREEN  20 %
FDP  5 %
LEFT  9 %
Others  5 %

CDU wins a little bit, but the CDU/CSU-FDP coalition have problems

[Tender Branson]

Baden-Württemberg,  Infratest dimap (02.12.2010)

CDU  39 %
SPD  18 %
GREEN  28 %
FDP  5 %  
LEFT  5 %
Others  5 %

Well, then let's hope that FDP/Left gets less than 5% and that we see Green-Red, which would have a majority.

[DL]

The FDP could just as easily drop below 5% and cause a Green/SPD majority.

[Tender Branson]

2 more state polls by Infratest dimap:

BERLIN:

(voting preferences in the next state elections)



(voting preferences in the next state elections in West and East Berlin)



(historical voting preferences in state elections)



(approval ratings of Berlin politicians)



(direct vote for Berlin mayor)



...

RHEINLAND PFALZ:

(voting preferences in the next state elections)



(direct vote for state governor)

[Tender Branson]

Is Red-Green a done deal in Rheinland-Pfalz ?

[minionofmidas]

Is that Rhineland-Pfalz thing comparing with a recent poll or what?

[Franzl]

Is Red-Green a done deal in Rheinland-Pfalz ?

What else would happen?

[Hans-im-Glück]

New polls:

Hamburg,  Infratest dimap (13.12.2010)

CDU  22 %
SPD  43 %
GREEN  19 %
FDP  4 % 
LEFT  7 %
Others  5 %

I think the SPD can order the champagne for the victory celebrations.


Germany, Emnid (12.12.2010)

CDU/CSU  35 %
SPD  25 %
GREEN  19 %
FDP  5 %
LEFT  10 %
Others  6 %


The first poll since many weeks, the Greens are under 20%, but 19% very good too.

[Tender Branson]

Is Red-Green a done deal in Rheinland-Pfalz ?

What else would happen?

SPD-CDU would also be possible.

[DL]

When has the SPD EVER formed a coalition with the CDU when they could get a majority just with the Greens? Just because something is mathematically possible doesn't make it politically possible. I suppose one could argue that another mathematically possible coalition would be made up of the CDU, the FDP and the Linke and Greens (ie: everyone except the SPD)

[Middle-aged Europe]

When has the SPD EVER formed a coalition with the CDU when they could get a majority just with the Greens?

Bremen, 1995-2007.

[Hans-im-Glück]

When has the SPD EVER formed a coalition with the CDU when they could get a majority just with the Greens?

Bremen, 1995-2007.

That is true, but in the moment I don't see that the SPD wants a coalition with the CDU. When the polls are the final result it will give 100% a red-green coalition.

[minionofmidas]

The SPD has everything to gain from keeping the RhP CDU as the certified joke that it is. It's not as if the SPD was the natural party of government in the state or anything.

That said, for somewhat similar reasons they have been wary of getting the Greens into state government. They went with the FDP instead of the Greens in the 90s.

[Tender Branson]

Quite a few polls out today by Emnid, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen and Forsa:

EMNID (GERMANY)

34%   (nc) CDU/CSU
26%  (+3) SPD
20%  (+9) Greens
10%   (-2) Left
  5% (-10) FDP
  5%   (-1) Others

FORSCHUNGSGRUPPE WAHLEN (GERMANY)

34%   (nc) CDU/CSU
28%  (+5) SPD
19%  (+8) Greens
  9%   (-3) Left
  5% (-10) FDP
  5%   (-1) Others

FORSA (BERLIN STATE ELECTION)

27%    (-4) SPD
25% (+12) Greens
19%    (-2) CDU
15%    (-1) Left
  4%    (-4) FDP
10%    (-1) Others

FORSA (BERLIN FEDERAL ELECTION)

24% (+7) Greens
23% (+3) SPD
23%  (nc) CDU
17%  (-3) Left
  4%  (-8) FDP
  9% (+1) Others

EMNID (BADEN-WÜRTTEMBERG STATE ELECTION)

41%    (-3) CDU
29% (+17) Greens
19%    (-6) SPD
  4%   (+1) Left
  4%    (-7) FDP
  3%    (-2) Others

EMNID (RHEINLAND-PFALZ STATE ELECTION)

39%  (-7) SPD
37% (+4) CDU
11% (+6) Greens
  4% (+1) Left
  4%  (-4) FDP
  5%  (-1) Others

[Tender Branson]

Still waiting for really new polls from Bremen, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Sachsen-Anhalt.

They also have state elections in 2011 and the last polls are more than 1/2 year old, in MV the last poll is even older than 1 year ...

[Tender Branson]

A new WDR/Infratest-Dimap poll for NRW:

36% (+1) SPD
32%  (-3) CDU
18% (+6) Greens
  5%  (-1) Left
  4%  (-3) FDP
  5% (nc) Others

54-37 majority for SPD-Greens, because the FDP fails to get more than 5%.

[Hans-im-Glück]

FORSA (BERLIN STATE ELECTION)

27%    (-4) SPD
25% (+12) Greens
19%    (-2) CDU
15%    (-1) Left
  4%    (-4) FDP
10%    (-1) Others

I think the difference between SPD and the Greens will be bigger in the next weeks. Wowereit is still very popular in Berlin. I see the Greens only on a very good second place, but this would be a very good result.

To the bad polling numbers of the FDP. I'm sorry to say that they will survive this crisis, but for Guido I haven't a good feeling

[Franzl]

Would you vote SPD or Green in Berlin, Hans?

I'd even vote Green tactically..

[Hans-im-Glück]

Would you vote SPD or Green in Berlin, Hans?

I'd even vote Green tactically..

It is good that I don't live there

I very like Wowereit, but I'm not a friend of the Berlin-SPD

Renate Künast is not my favourite Politician of the Greens, but the Berlin-Greens are Greens what I really like.

In this moment I don't know, but it is lean Green

[Middle-aged Europe]

I happen to live in Berlin now and I'm proud to say that I'm going to be one of the 16% who will vote Green next year.

[minionofmidas]

Whereabouts?