Redistricting 2020, doomed incumbents (user search)
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  Redistricting 2020, doomed incumbents (search mode)
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Author Topic: Redistricting 2020, doomed incumbents  (Read 6513 times)
Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,892


« on: January 01, 2020, 02:50:20 PM »

I personally think that the senate is going blue here (the map favors team Blue) but if it doesn't then we will cross the less likely bridge when we come to it. I got three Dem drawn styles of map here, and the overall result is 5 Clinton seats on both the 8 District and the 7 District map. It's really not hard, even if you avoid cutting towns like I did here since MN historically doesn't like cutting towns.

Here's a map whose theme is 'aggression.' The Northern tentacles really are not bad, they even maintain a COI; the native reservations. The southern tentacles are more notable. This map tries to get every blue bit inside a blue seat, and it shows. I don't think this map is very likely.



1: 62.6/29/7 Trump, R+13.5 CPVI
2: 47.5/43.1 Clinton, D+2.2
3: 53.2/37.7 Clinton, D+4.2
4: 56.3/37.5 Clinton, D+9.9
5: 61.7/29.6 Clinton, D+15.3
6: 62.5/29.4 Trump, R+15.7
7: 46.6/44.8 Clinton, D+3.1

This isn't as aggressive as it could be. The D+15 and D+10 districts could be un-packed, allowing you to either leave the map as 5-2 and make it appear visually cleaner by chopping off/broadening the tentacles in certain places, or alternatively possibly by making it into a 5-1-1 map (which might also allow it to look visually cleaner, because you could have the swing district take in a decent # of the tentacle-ish areas and also some surrounding R areas to smooth out the lines a bit, particularly in the north where there is very low population.

In addition, these maps are all using 2016 estimates. It should be easier to draw favorable maps (with relatively clean looking lines, if desired) for the Dems with the 2020 data, because more of the population share will have shifted into the MSP metro area and out of the rural areas.
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