If There's a Second UK Referendum on Brexit...

[Frodo]

Since this option seems as plausible as any other, given the reluctance to Brexit displayed by the UK Parliament of late.  They have rejected everything so far, from Prime Minister Theresa May's attempts at a compromise to a 'hard' Brexit.  The only thing they seem open to is to beg the EU for more time, even after three years of preparation since the first referendum.  So maybe they will punt, and once again ask voters if they are really, really sure about this...  

And here's the link to my poll on the original referendum.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Don't know. Much will depend on whether the perception amongst the UK public is that the deal they thought they could get the first time they voted isn't actually available or if the perception is that May bollocksed up things so that whilst she couldn't get it, some other PM could.

[PSOL]

Now the situation has changed in Remain’s favor, but I wouldn’t doubt the trolls at Murdoch’s payroll wouldn’t make it competitive.

[Oryxslayer]

I have a relative who works at YouGov. Under NDA so no names, but one of the upper management, when asked about this question, said there is nothing in the data that suggests the situation has changed. Remain looks better then it really is on paper. The elderly favor leave, and the turnout curve that holds true around the globe is biased in their favor.

The scary thing though is that if a second referendum is called with Remain on the ballot, it is in the rational interest of Leavers to boycott in an organized manner. They already won the referendum after all. It's an argument that is easy for people like Boris to make, 'the Remainers are trying to steal our brexit.' This is scary because it both wastes time and gives the government a unworkable result. They cannot follow a delegitimzed referendum, but they also cannot ignore the will of the voters. It's a situation where no matter what happens, a third of the county ends up believing that their vote is useless and Democracy no longer works.

[Lechasseur]

Yeah probably

[Helsinkian]

I don't know, but I do know that if Leave were to win again then the remainiacs would demand a third referendum.

[Deep Dixieland Senator, Muad'dib (OSR MSR)]

Let's just get them to hold Brexit referenda till the British public "get it right"

[DaWN]

Let's not pretend a second referendum would be anything other than a tossup. Even after the previous three years, enough people will vote based on 'mooslems taking are jobs' to provide Leave with a very solid base.

I think Remain would narrowly take it, but it could go either way.

[Deep Dixieland Senator, Muad'dib (OSR MSR)]

"BREXIT MEANS BREXIT" - PM May

"No deal is better than a bad deal" - PM May

Yet this PM can seem to follow up on her own words.
She's worse than the last 5 Australian PMs

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

You either have a second referendum or you leave on schedule. I'm sorry, but this is just getting too far.

[Omega21]

Let's not pretend a second referendum would be anything other than a tossup. Even after the previous three years, enough people will vote based on 'mooslems taking are jobs' to provide Leave with a very solid base.

I think Remain would narrowly take it, but it could go either way.

Leaving has nothing to do with Muslims, as there is no Muslim country in the EU.

90% of UK Muslims come from 3rd Countries (non-EU/non-European).

So I am going to correct you on that, as it was about poorer EU migrants "taking jobs".

I agree the argument is ridiculous, as EU migrants are far less likely to commit serious crimes than 3rd Country migrants, and are much more likely to integrate, and plus, East/Central EU migrants mostly take jobs the Brits don't want anyway. 

[parochial boy]

Let's not pretend a second referendum would be anything other than a tossup. Even after the previous three years, enough people will vote based on 'mooslems taking are jobs' to provide Leave with a very solid base.

I think Remain would narrowly take it, but it could go either way.

Leaving has nothing to do with Muslims, as there is no Muslim country in the EU.

90% of UK Muslims come from 3rd Countries (non-EU/non-European).

So I am going to correct you on that, as it was about poorer EU migrants "taking jobs".

I agree the argument is ridiculous, as EU migrants are far less likely to commit serious crimes than 3rd Country migrants, and are much more likely to integrate, and plus, East/Central EU migrants mostly take jobs the Brits don't want anyway. 

[Omega21]

Let's not pretend a second referendum would be anything other than a tossup. Even after the previous three years, enough people will vote based on 'mooslems taking are jobs' to provide Leave with a very solid base.

I think Remain would narrowly take it, but it could go either way.

Leaving has nothing to do with Muslims, as there is no Muslim country in the EU.

90% of UK Muslims come from 3rd Countries (non-EU/non-European).

So I am going to correct you on that, as it was about poorer EU migrants "taking jobs".

I agree the argument is ridiculous, as EU migrants are far less likely to commit serious crimes than 3rd Country migrants, and are much more likely to integrate, and plus, East/Central EU migrants mostly take jobs the Brits don't want anyway.  

The post I replied to was talking about "Muslims taking jobs", not immigration.

I know about the various groups who claimed a connection, I'm just saying the main argument was about other EU member nationals (Romanians, Poles, Bulgarians etc.) "taking jobs", at least that's what I gathered from news/interviews.

Edit: Clarification

[Progressive Pessimist]

I would hope that the British (particularly the English and Welsh) would be able to see through the bulls*** this time.

[DaWN]

Let's not pretend a second referendum would be anything other than a tossup. Even after the previous three years, enough people will vote based on 'mooslems taking are jobs' to provide Leave with a very solid base.

I think Remain would narrowly take it, but it could go either way.

Leaving has nothing to do with Muslims, as there is no Muslim country in the EU.

90% of UK Muslims come from 3rd Countries (non-EU/non-European).

So I am going to correct you on that, as it was about poorer EU migrants "taking jobs".

I agree the argument is ridiculous, as EU migrants are far less likely to commit serious crimes than 3rd Country migrants, and are much more likely to integrate, and plus, East/Central EU migrants mostly take jobs the Brits don't want anyway. 

I am well aware of all of that. My point was that a large swathe of the British electorate will vote based on Muslims and other brown people 'taking our jobs' even though the referendum has nothing to do with that. Rational thinking about how the EU has nothing to do with that kind of immigration doesn't enter the equation.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I don't think the majority of the Brexit voting population were thinking of Muslims (and it's worth noting that BME voters weren't as uniformly for Brexit as you might think...), but the Leave campaign certainly used prospect of Turkey joining the EU (I got a few maps that helpfully highlighted Syria and Iraq bordering turkey in the mail) with the backdrop of the Syrian migrant crisis to whip up fear.

[Helsinkian]

the Leave campaign certainly used prospect of Turkey joining the EU

And yet Boris Johnson wanted Turkey to join the EU: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NLQ3Gbiopc4

[Indy Texas]

I thought the way they went about it was ridiculous.

It doesn't make sense to have a referendum where the choices are between the (known) status quo and a hypothetical, unknown alternative that is ridiculously and dishonestly misrepresented by proponents.

The UK should have gone to the EU and said, "If we want to leave, what are the terms?"

And then, once the terms were there, the voters should have been given a referendum to choose between remaining in the EU and taking that specific Leave deal.

[Lechasseur]

You either have a second referendum or you leave on schedule. I'm sorry, but this is just getting too far.

Yeah, honestly I think a second referendum is necessary at this point

[CumbrianLefty]

A petition on the UK government website calling for A50 to be rescinded (and thus the Brexit process stalled) is about to pass the 5 million mark - a record since these were set up.

That doesn't indicate that loads of leave voters in 2016 have changed their minds, but it does maybe show that "remainers" will be more fired up for any new referendum than they were back then.

[Smid]

A petition on the UK government website calling for A50 to be rescinded (and thus the Brexit process stalled) is about to pass the 5 million mark - a record since these were set up.

That doesn't indicate that loads of leave voters in 2016 have changed their minds, but it does maybe show that "remainers" will be more fired up for any new referendum than they were back then.

Here's a map of petition signatories by constituency

[GoTfan]

If a second referendum happens, there's little doubt as to who'd win.

Doesn't change the fact that they should've been fired up during the actual vote. Remainers lived in an echo chamber, and it showed. One side was fired up, the other wasn't, and that's how we got here.

[CumbrianLefty]

People getting excited because strong remain areas have the most signatures - who knew??

The real point is that the LOWEST supporting seats have nearly 2k who have signed.

This has significant support literally everywhere.

Which might give those in the government who believe they could plunge us into a no deal Brexit and get away with it unscathed, pause for thought. OK it probably won't, but you never know......

[brucejoel99]

A petition on the UK government website calling for A50 to be rescinded (and thus the Brexit process stalled) is about to pass the 5 million mark - a record since these were set up.

That doesn't indicate that loads of leave voters in 2016 have changed their minds, but it does maybe show that "remainers" will be more fired up for any new referendum than they were back then.

Here's a map of petition signatories by constituency

What's really funny is that Andrea Leadsom said on the floor of the Commons last week, "Should it reach more than 17.4 million respondents then I am sure there would be a very clear case for taking action." It'd be really hilarious if those words come back to haunt her with the petition actually getting more than 17.4 million signatures.