GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[Hindsight was 2020]

Karen Handel is so obnoxious. I think I've heard Nancy Pelosi's name at least a dozen times.

And could she stop using "liberal" as an insult. You are supposed to represent all your voters lady. Name calling and divisiveness is not very becoming despite who the President is.

There's nothing wrong with using "liberal" as an insult.

Sure if you aren't a whiny little hypocrite who claims "liberals look down on us" who ignores dems never attack a state like Texas while Karen herself rips on California an Massachusetts in every other sentence

[Hindsight was 2020]

"I don't support a livable wage."

Why would you say that?

Wow she screws up big right at the end of the debate

[Hindsight was 2020]

One things for sure Ossoff is doing a much better job then Quist

[Hindsight was 2020]

Early vote through today by county:

Cobb 10623 (16.9%)
DeKalb 15618 (24.8%)
Fulton 36722 (58.3%)
Total 62963

Again Kandel can't afford to have Cobb that far behind so that is very concerning for her

[Hindsight was 2020]

For reference:

In April (all votes), Fulton was 45%, Cobb 32% and Dekalb 23%.

In early vote, Fulton was 53%, Cobb 26% and Dekalb 21%.

Through today:

Cobb 11502 (16.5%)
DeKalb 17229 (24.8%)
Fulton 40828 (58.7%)
Total 69559

Not much change in proportions through today's update:

Cobb 12422 (16.5%)
DeKalb 18644 (24.7%)
Fulton 44397 (58.8%)
Total 75463

Man Cobb is not coming out for Handel

[Hindsight was 2020]

For reference:

In April (all votes), Fulton was 45%, Cobb 32% and Dekalb 23%.

In early vote, Fulton was 53%, Cobb 26% and Dekalb 21%.

Through today:

Cobb 11502 (16.5%)
DeKalb 17229 (24.8%)
Fulton 40828 (58.7%)
Total 69559

Not much change in proportions through today's update:

Cobb 12422 (16.5%)
DeKalb 18644 (24.7%)
Fulton 44397 (58.8%)
Total 75463

Man Cobb is not coming out for Handel

One factor may have been that Cobb had a favorite son in the first round but not in the second. If Judson Hill was focused on Cobb County and ginning up turnout there in the first round (a sensible decision, since he only had to beat Handel, not Ossoff, in the first round), the lack of his presence in the second round could be felt in terms of organization and enthusiasm there. Same for other regions with R candidates who lost, but Hill was the most regional of them and had little support outside of Cobb.

Which is not good for Handel

[Hindsight was 2020]

Funny isn't 51-44 also the number USA today had?

[Hindsight was 2020]

Also she makes the same mistakes Hillary did that by not countering your opponents message with your own message but by saying how awful your oppoent is this like Hillary did with Trump Handel is allowing Ossoff to dominate the race

[Hindsight was 2020]

For reference:

In April (all votes), Fulton was 45%, Cobb 32% and Dekalb 23%.

In early vote, Fulton was 53%, Cobb 26% and Dekalb 21%.

Early vote through yesterday:

Cobb 13199 (15.8%)
DeKalb 20622 (24.7%)
Fulton 49581 (59.4%)
Total 83402

The trend over the last few days is Cobb's share declining, Fulton's increasing, and DeKalb holding its own.  Today may be interesting; all three counties have Saturday voting.  Only Fulton was open last Saturday.

Holy moly Cobb never fell this far behind in April

[Hindsight was 2020]

So apparently Bikers for Trump are doing GOTV for Handel https://mobile.twitter.com/alexis_levinson/status/873663431857106944

[Hindsight was 2020]

It was likely at some point Cobb would pick some up but being in thrid will hurt Handel

[Hindsight was 2020]

A hint at also why Ossoff has an edge AHCA has horrible #'s in the 6th https://mobile.twitter.com/vgmac/status/874262190454435842

[Hindsight was 2020]

Ugh!!!!!!!!!!

[Hindsight was 2020]

For people freaking out about polls, an Ossoff+3 race would produce tied and +6 polls at about the same rate.

Also, interesting bit from this poll:

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There's also this, which shows the difference in polling from this pollster could be partially due to the sample used:

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Actual if you break those numbers down that is an Ossof 2-3 lead

[Hindsight was 2020]

GOP pollsters Trafalgar Group have it: Ossoff 50 Handel 47

There polls were super Republican in 2016, but most ended up being pretty accurate.

Trafalgar polled the LA runoff and the SC R runoff excellently. Their only error in 2016 was NV, which is ridiculously hard to poll. I'd imagine these numbers are pretty spot on. But remember that undecideds in Georgia go basically 100% republican, so this is basically a 50/50 finding.

Undecideds broke for Ossoff last time

[Hindsight was 2020]

These all seem to be saying the same thing about this race which is Ossoff wins 2-3 an it should really concern Handel that she has never came close to 50 in any poll but Ossoff has hit it a couple times

[Hindsight was 2020]

Wow maybe Cobb just fell to far behind early to catch up by EV an will be in third place which is awful for Karen

[Hindsight was 2020]

Tom Bonier did a breakdown of EV an Ossoff seems to be getting more black and female irregular voters then first round https://mobile.twitter.com/tbonier/status/875341387763519488

[Hindsight was 2020]

For reference:

In April (all votes), Fulton was 45%, Cobb 32% and Dekalb 23%.

In early vote, Fulton was 53%, Cobb 26% and Dekalb 21%.

Also for reference: the distribution of registered voters in the district is approximately Cobb 29%, DeKalb 23%, Fulton 48%.

Through today:

Cobb 24870 (19.4%)
DeKalb 29783 (23.3%)
Fulton 73316 (57.3%)
Total 127969

Am I wrong or doesn't in-person Ev end tomorrow? That means Cobb will be in third 

[Hindsight was 2020]

I must say though can we not let 2016 make us freak out over ever close race I mean while polling was off Trump did lead in polls in the ending days however Handel hasn't lead in one poll

[Hindsight was 2020]

New Fox/Alanta: Ossoff 49.7% vs Handel 49.4% https://mobile.twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/875740251540553732

[Hindsight was 2020]

Actually if you do a breakdown of that Fox poll Delalb seems to be underrepresented and the race breakdown heavier white then EV is so the fact Ossoff is still winning even by less than 1% is good

[Hindsight was 2020]

PPNumbers is giving Ossoff a 65% chance of winning https://mobile.twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/875794195314814981

[Hindsight was 2020]

This is a Nate Cohn tweet from Round 1 that I believe is helpful for context.

That lines up with most Ossoff by 2 polls

[Hindsight was 2020]

Getting back to the topic at hand how did EV yesterday breakdown?