GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[Hindsight was 2020]

Getting back to the topic at hand how did EV yesterday breakdown?

I posted it last night after the absentee file updated:

For reference:

In April (all votes), Fulton was 45%, Cobb 32% and Dekalb 23%.

In early vote, Fulton was 53%, Cobb 26% and Dekalb 21%.

Also for reference: the distribution of registered voters in the district is approximately Cobb 29%, DeKalb 23%, Fulton 48%.

In-person early voting ended today.  Here are the updated early vote totals (mail plus in-person):

Cobb 27381 (19.5%)
DeKalb 32410 (23.1%)
Fulton 80518 (57.4%)
Total 140309

Man putting cobb vs delkab ev in April vs now looks really good for Ossoff

[Hindsight was 2020]

I’ve been playing with the early vote data between the first round and the runoff.  Obviously, early voting is way up in the runoff: a 148% increase from the first round!  But this increase isn’t uniform across the district.  I’ve attempted to relate the amount of increase to the party breakdown in round 1 votes.

The charts below show one bubble for each precinct.  The size of the bubble represents the total D+R vote in round 1.  The horizontal axis is the D percentage of the D+R vote in round 1. The vertical axis is the percentage increase of early votes from round 1 to the runoff.  Bubbles in the upper right and lower left quadrants should be good news for Ossoff: upper right is a higher increase in EV for D-leaning precincts, while lower left is a lower increase for R-leaning precincts.  Similarly, the upper left and lower right quadrants should be good for Handel.

Here’s the district-wide plot:



This seems good for Ossoff.  But since DeKalb had more EV locations in the runoff than in the first round, while Cobb had fewer locations, this may not be a fair comparison.  So I looked at each county individually.  Here’s Fulton County:



IMO Fulton looks slightly favorable to Handel. 

DeKalb:



DeKalb, not surprisingly, looks quite good for Ossoff, although since it has mostly D-leaning precincts it's hard to be sure.

Cobb:



Since Cobb has mostly R-leaning precincts, it’s difficult to compare D vs R here.  But the increases here are certainly less than in the other two counties.  However, a lot of this is probably due to the fewer EV locations.

Thoughts?

Looks good for Ossoff

[Hindsight was 2020]

Some disgusting RW troll group is putting out a last minute ad tying Ossoff to the Scalise shooting https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sh7ZiddrkmI

[Hindsight was 2020]

The Atlanta poll has been updated to Ossoff 49.7 to Handel's 48 http://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/6th-district-poll-fewer-voters-undecided/534524963

[Hindsight was 2020]

For anyone from GA-06 or near by what's the story on Fulton? It seems to be the purple district with the most % so what is the word on the street of how this is looking compared to April

[Hindsight was 2020]

Good article on the fallout of this race having on 2018 https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/06/18/us/politics/high-stakes-referendum-on-trump-takes-shape-in-a-georgia-special-election.html?_r=0&referer=https://t.co/odVgVfdR5M?amp=1

[Hindsight was 2020]

I can't help but be annoyed at the hypocrisy of Jfern an other hard leftist on this topic. On the one hand they constantly rip on "the establishment" for "talking about Russia and not healthcare" yet Quist brought up Russia all the time in Montana while Ossoff is the one who doesn't bring up Russia and talks about healthcare

[Hindsight was 2020]

Yeah the guys who blew the VA primary are not a good source

[Hindsight was 2020]

Though Nate Cohn has been sending cryptic tweets that Handel will win

[Hindsight was 2020]

Though Nate Cohn has been sending cryptic tweets that Handel will win

Example please?  The tweets I've seen seem to indicate he's really on the fence in this one.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/876522974752493568

[Hindsight was 2020]

I do wonder if Ossoff wins would any more big GOP names retire like Ros

[Hindsight was 2020]

Harry Enten did a poll breakdown an saw not effect from the shooting on GA06

[Hindsight was 2020]

From Harry Enten:

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It really should be cause for optimism that while SE are hard to poll they were pretty accurate last time an if anything under polled Ossoff

[Hindsight was 2020]

Man I leave for a couple hours an Ossoff has lost

[Hindsight was 2020]

But seriously if Ossoff does lose what do dems do? He did everything right while Handel did so much wrong yet reps fell in line

[Hindsight was 2020]

But seriously if Ossoff does lose what do dems do? He did everything right while Handel did so much wrong yet reps fell in line

Maybe realize that this is still one individual race, and a lot can happen in a year and a half...

Dude they spent 30 mil on this race if he loses recruiters will freak out

[Hindsight was 2020]

Harry Enten is giving Ossoff chances of winning 60/40 https://mobile.twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/876936161796661248

[Hindsight was 2020]

Win or lose, $23+ million for a House race is a waste. That money could have gone to other races, helping broke state parties recover, stop ALEC from calling a constitutional convention, and so on. There is much better bang for the buck elsewhere than this.

How much was from small donors? The kind of donors everyone has been saying Democrats should rely on. I keep reading your posts and getting the feeling that you think the establishment has been fully funding Ossoff.

Thank you I keep bring this up but its in one ear and out the other

[Hindsight was 2020]

Any thoughts on this guys thread? https://mobile.twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/876972215174037504