GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[Hindsight was 2020]

Nate Cohn: D 51, R 29. Overal D 54, R 30 https://mobile.twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/848200288863432704

[Hindsight was 2020]

A Republican Super PAC just put out a new ad against Ossoff:

https://youtu.be/Xr4RYY7Mpw4

Looks like they are in kitchen sink mode.  Isn't it a bit ridiculous that they're portraying him as a window-shattering black bloc anarchist right after showing him in a goofy Han Solo costume?

That dislike to like ratio though

[Hindsight was 2020]

A Republican Super PAC just put out a new ad against Ossoff:

https://youtu.be/Xr4RYY7Mpw4

Looks like they are in kitchen sink mode.  Isn't it a bit ridiculous that they're portraying him as a window-shattering black bloc anarchist right after showing him in a goofy Han Solo costume?

That dislike to like ratio though

Here's what the Republicans don't seem to realize about this election - Ossoff's strong numbers don't come from a bunch of Republicans thinking "meh, maybe I'll vote for the Democrat this time," but previous non-voters showing up in droves while Republicans feel disheartened. Videos like this will only make that worse by getting Democrats to rally around their guy, while not giving Republicans any good alternative. That like-dislike ratio is a perfect example of this. If they really want to hurt Ossoff's chances, they'd be better off just handing the money over to the individual Republican campaigns and giving their voters something to get excited about.

This is purely conjecture. There is nothing to suggest previous non voters showing up, this race had the highest turnout of any congressional in Georgia in 2016...

Both Nate Cohn and Michael McDonald have first time/non-registered voters as a big chunk of the turnout

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RRH is commissioning a poll, so hopefully we get a decent picture soon.

Paul Ryan's PAC apparently has a poll out that has Ossoff with -17 favorables, which I'm gonna go ahead and say is biased.

No really?!?!?!

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Nate Cohn: day 6: 53 D/29 29 R. Overall 54 D/29 R with 9639 ballots https://mobile.twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/849069004614508544

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What are the odds with all the atttention here we fall short and actually pull off a win in MT-AL?

Better then most realize. I actually like MT-AL better then this

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GOP mailer against Ossoff as scummy as the TV ads.

https://twitter.com/peytoned/status/849713214405443585

But remember the dems are the ones who play identity politics

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An now we know why Moody's internal poll has generic rep up only 1% with 4% unsure vs generic dem (aka Ossoff) https://mobile.twitter.com/alexis_levinson/status/849724220535910402

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I am interested to see if it's Ossoff vs Handel what will happen cause Trump supporters on Twitter bash her as much as Ossoff

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High black an youth turnout

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Like KS-04 could Ossoff do really well with rep voters?

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It was fun while it lasted

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All jokes aside I really don't buy into the whole "he needs to hit 50 now" idea I can see him beating  Handel or Gray 1 on 1

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Democrats aren't going to win the House, or even make substantial gains. KS being close was a fluke because of the Brownback disaster but even there it was still a loss. Conservatrash turn out in droves for these elections to find an outlet for their sadistic urges against the poor and the "other". Decent people don't vote in midterms, for whatever reason.

Jeesh on bad poll an it's doom and gloom over here

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Democrats aren't going to win the House, or even make substantial gains. KS being close was a fluke because of the Brownback disaster but even there it was still a loss. Conservatives turn out in droves for these elections to find an outlet for their sadistic urges against the poor and the "other". Decent people don't vote in midterms, for whatever reason.

That's empirically wrong. The incumbent presidential party almost always loses seats in the midterm elections, Democrats included. Dem's made gains in 2006 with Bush and picked up house seats in '82 '86 and '90. This is well known fact of U.S. elections.

Yeah, but keyword seems to be substantial. Will, say, 15 seats gain, be considered a substantial gain?

Problem most of those midterms is the rep presidents weren't hated like Trump the best midterm comparison is Bush in '06 so based off that yes 15 is bad

[Hindsight was 2020]

UPDATE

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Christ

[Hindsight was 2020]

I always thought this would be the toughest lift due to the type of voters Osoff would've had to win over.  I can only go by my anecdotal experiences in OH, but I know plenty of affluent, educated suburban Republicans who - while they plan to switch from Trump to whoever the Democratic nominee is in 2020 - don't blame any Republicans outside the Trump administration for the current state of the nation.  If turnout is depressed among this crowd, you'll get a Democratic wave, but if they turnout, most of them are not going to vote Democratic.  The affluent, suburban Republicans in Franklin County who reluctantly backed Trump in 2016 (and even many Never Trump ones) are extremely inelastic Republicans and I'm sure this is even more true in places like GA-6. 

This isn't to say we shouldn't target suburban seats, but they won't be enough on their own (it's good to compete in rural, suburban, urban and any other kinds of districts where we can realistically put a seat in play, even if it's just wave insurance).  Depressed Republican turnout in affluent suburbs across America and strong candidate recruitment will be more important than how many Never Trump suburban Republicans we can get to vote Democratic against non-Trump Republicans (hint: it won't be nearly enough without depressed Republican turnout). 

I get why the DCCC is competing in GA-6 and it wasn't a bad call, but I also think they should've been much more careful about managing expectations.  Not too long ago, I even convinced myself Osoff might just miss the runoff, but realistically my gut tells me he's looking at 40-42% on Tuesday.  The only Republican I could see Osoff even having a chance against is Bob Gray, but he'll likely face Handel in the runoff and while neither her nor Hill are particularly good candidates, they're generic and inoffensive enough to the type of Republicans in the district who backed Clinton that Osoff wouldn't stand a chance in the run-off.  Handel's incompetence might keep things close-ish, but I could even see Hill winning by low double-digits.  The other issue, and this is a recurring issue for House Democrats, is recruitment.  Despite the hype, Osoff is neither the strongest candidate we could've run nor is he the right type of candidate to flip a district like this.  That said, I think this district is a bridge too far this cycle (in 4-8 years that will probably change though) and while we should've helped Osoff a bit, building this up as some sort of canary-in-the-coal mine/marquee race was an unforced error.  I maintain (as I always have) that while losing here and/or MT-AL should scare Republicans, it doesn't mean all that much of the Democrats lose both (especially GA-6 which may in hindsight have never been winnable in the first place). 

But of course, mainstream Democrats will play chicken little and then make some weak excuse for why this was a "fluke," Republicans will pretend they have a mandate in the most obnoxious way possible, and Berniecrats will try to pretend this is some sort of damning indictment of Tom Perez (LOL)/"proof" that suburban seats are all fool's gold and we can only win by running fire-breathing liberals in such noted bastions of socialism as KS-4 and WV-3   In case, you can't tell I'm pretty annoyed with the whole situation

^ That about sums it up if he loses

[Hindsight was 2020]

I take that poll with a grain of salt with Ossoff only at 33% in Cobb and doing better in Fulton over Dekalb

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This will be an embarrassing loss like KS, and MT will follow suit. Justice Democrats need to start recruiting candidates to run. Without grass roots liberalism is finished in America.

Oh for f**k sake what is with you leftwingers thinking that a place like KS-04 is a socialist safe haven ready to happen there was nothing wrong with that loss

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Trump makes a robo call:

https://mobile.twitter.com/Phil_Mattingly/status/854110507560783873/photo/1

Has someone told him he is not that liked in this district?

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Midterm level turnout in the most Democratic precinct in DeKalb County:

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This is good to hear with the concern that he blew too much on EV

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A lot of people in DeKalb are going to the polls thinking they live in District 6 while in reality they don't.
https://mobile.twitter.com/BPetersenWSB/status/854361655844769792

Those tweets don't make it sound like alot but that does mean DeKalb is coming out to vote

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DeKalb county turnout now at: 8,873 https://mobile.twitter.com/DeKalbVotes/status/854388139787517952

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This is Trump's 4th GOTV tweet today on this race.

It's easier then governing

[Hindsight was 2020]

Ossoff is most likely heading toward something like 45-47% which is great heading into the runoff