VA-GOV 2017: It's a Wave (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2)

[Dr. Arch]

Around when do results start coming in tomorrow?

[Dr. Arch]

Falls Church turnout 2 hours after polls opened

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Nearly a quarter this early?

[Dr. Arch]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kwE1_XMLOZy-WWDRS5Jzf1I-anVbT2OH7w1g4QFL_Zs/edit#gid=0

I'm keeping track of turnout reports here too, for reference.

Nice. You should consider putting the 2013/2016 turnouts somewhere for comparison. That would really push your sheet to the next level.

[Dr. Arch]

This guy *supposedly* posted these same polls last year and got Wisconsin Michigan and Pennsylvania right https://mobile.twitter.com/mrbeercrusher/status/927951887369981959

Here’s the tweet showing trump up https://mobile.twitter.com/mrbeercrusher/status/796079698501599232

Now I don’t think this guy is real since he says Phil Murphy is only up 4.
Still he could be right.

I don't know about y'all but I just don't trust someone named "Mr. Beer Crusher" for polling

lol

[Dr. Arch]

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Meaning turnout has already exceeded 2013, with many hours to go.

[Dr. Arch]

My goodness with the bed wetting.

[Dr. Arch]

Petersburg is heavily AA city turnout may not even match 2013 levels, this is a disaster.

Can you just leave the thread until the polls close?

[Dr. Arch]

What are the actual turnout numbers in NOVA right now?

[Dr. Arch]

What are the actual turnout numbers in NOVA right now?

Over 325k as of 5

@ElectProject
Fairfax County with about 325,000 votes surpasses 2013 votes for gov of 306,430 with 2 hours still to go

Those are actually amazing numbers.

[Dr. Arch]

Where is Greedo The Hunter?

Figuring out how to say Northam+8 is no more than 3 either way.

[Dr. Arch]

Virginia HoD at D+11 and growing. Ds look poised to flip the HoD, exceeding WAYYY beyond expectations.

[Dr. Arch]

Virginia HoD at D+11 and growing. Ds look poised to flip the HoD, exceeding WAYYY beyond expectations.

Not paying that close of attention so I don't know which one but NYT has it D +12 now.

Following VPAP right now.

Edit: It's at +12 now.

[Dr. Arch]

Virginia HoD is now at D+14, 2 more flips to take control and Ds lead in 2 uncalled seats still. This was believed to be impossible initially.

[Dr. Arch]

Virginia House of Delegates, D+15! One more to flip and the Democrat is leading. Absentee ballots still outstanding, and they are more Democrat than the election day vote.

Link: https://www.vpap.org/electionresults/house/

[Dr. Arch]

Not sure anybody posted yet.

Wow,  VA-7 was close!

Give it another year of Trump, and those pink districts are slipping right away.

[Dr. Arch]

I'm proud of you, Virginia, absolute Freedom State.

[Dr. Arch]

Even if the House of Delegates is split, the Senate is still GOP so it doesn't change much. Dems will only need 1 seat in each in 2019 and with the GOP likely to stay unpopular, this shouldn't be too hard. Looking like a Democratic map in Virginia after 2020.

Yep, per VPAP, it is now D+16. It is now up to likely D friendly absentee ballots and recounts to determine control.

Absolutely outstanding results.

[Dr. Arch]

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HD-40 might have flipped back

HD-40 was classified as a D pickup by VPAP already (50.11-49.89), so it's a bigger margin than before. However, if this continues to be the case, we'll get 17-18 seats (and the house), as there are a number of HDs that were really close.

[Dr. Arch]

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HD-40 might have flipped back

HD-40 was classified as a D pickup by VPAP already (50.11-49.89), so it's a bigger margin than before. However, if this continues to be the case, we'll get 17-18 seats (and the house), as there are a number of HDs that were really close.

Hugo is the Republican incumbent.

Oh, crap, that might be enough to flip it if Tanner didn't pick up anything, which I doubt. Have absentees been counted yet?

[Dr. Arch]

Ffx County just came in. Hugo has won by 115 votes. http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2017%20November%20General/Site/Member%20House%20of%20Delegates%20(040).html

Let's give it a bit.

[Dr. Arch]

Ffx County just came in. Hugo has won by 115 votes. http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2017%20November%20General/Site/Member%20House%20of%20Delegates%20(040).html

Let's give it a bit.

If Hugo won, would that mean a 51-49 Republican advantage or a tie? I haven’t been able to keep track.

It would make the ceiling 51R, but it could be 53D. We just don't know yet. We need to wait on provisionals and the likely recounts.

[Dr. Arch]

VPAP still has a timestamp of 1:30 a.m. 11/8 on their site for this race, meaning their numbers are old. VA Dept of Elections numbers have been updated as of 28 mins ago.

Update: Not all of Ffx data is up to date on the DoE page by precincts, provisionals, and absentees so Tanner still has a shot.

Yep

[Dr. Arch]

That suburban Republican curb-stomping comin to an area near you

[Dr. Arch]

VPAP has the gubernatorial race by state senate district.

Northam won 24 state senate districts out of 40, including 3 Trump-won districts.

2019 is looking good.

[Dr. Arch]

Latest VPAP update has Tanner leading Hugo in HD-40. This would put it at 50-50 if it holds, correct?