Dick Morris: What Many Polls Are Missing

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The Libyan intervention had more to do with Atlanticism than anything else, but I guess that it's all globalism to you, brother.

Me?  No.  What bothers me is the changing story about Libya, the serial and the attacks on about 20 embassies since then.

I've generally given Obama high marks on foreign police, but he blew this latest crisis.

I just want to chime in how disappointed I am with Obama's failure to stand strong with Israel. These turn of events have completely negated his foreign policy achievements from 2009-2011 IMHO. I worry about our foreign policy being as poor as our domestic policy if Obama gets four more years. In any case, we're in big trouble if Obama gets back in.

What a frustratingly ridiculous thing to say, Bibi has been very complementary of his interaction with Obama. What does 'standing strong with Israel' even mean?

What is your point? Do you think you're going to change minds with baseless talking points? The only support you have is right-wing paranoia about an Obama that doesn't exist. You're more than welcome to believe it, but if he's re-elected, I'll look forward to hearing which candidate you're going to inflict your support upon next.

Obama is clinging to 8% unemployment and one trillion dollar deficits on the domestic front, and sending signals that he will abandon Israel and bow to Russian demands if re-elected. That's the point. You're more than welcome to cling to 8% unemployment, $4/gallon gasoline, one trillion dollar deficits, and abandoning our most important ally in the Middle East, but most of the rest of America have had enough with this administration's incompetence as you will witness on Election Night.

Hang on... did you just basically copy and paste that from somewhere else? Do you have a stump post?

Considering how bad you are at reading 'tea leaves', I'd be deeply impressed if you could show how Israel has been abandoned?

The deficits will be there... no matter who wins. The GOP House is too dogmatic to do anything serious about it. The difference is, Romney needs to cow-tow to these people... or he'll have a hell problem in 2016. They'll expect him to fix it... but won't allow him to do anything that might work. I'm fully expecting him to lose, but if he does win, it'll be in spite of him being the nominee and he'll probably have a disappointing and anxiety-ridden term.

[Averroës Nix]

A brain-damaged baboon would make a better Romney surrogate.

[J. J.]

A brain-damaged baboon would make a better Romney surrogate.

The Democrats already have Biden.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

A brain-damaged baboon would make a better Romney surrogate.

The Democrats already have Biden.

As I said in another thread, I for one am actually beginning to get seriously ticked off by this bullsh**t. Stop it. Now.

[patrick1]

A brain-damaged baboon would make a better Romney surrogate.

The Democrats already have Biden.

Envy is such an ugly thing.

[Averroës Nix]

Eh, it was dumb of me to stoop to name-calling, despite my statement being true in its most technical sense.

In any case, I'm baffled by the constant disparagement Biden. Much of it is as superficial as the feigned outrage over Michelle Obama's vegetable garden. What's the deal, Biden-haters? Still upset over him torpedoing Bork?

[Politico]

There comes a time in every man's life when they should retire, and Biden is at that point. That's the problem with Biden The Buffoon. He'll just have to be forced into retirement, I guess...

[Politico]

The Libyan intervention had more to do with Atlanticism than anything else, but I guess that it's all globalism to you, brother.

Me?  No.  What bothers me is the changing story about Libya, the serial and the attacks on about 20 embassies since then.

I've generally given Obama high marks on foreign police, but he blew this latest crisis.

I just want to chime in how disappointed I am with Obama's failure to stand strong with Israel. These turn of events have completely negated his foreign policy achievements from 2009-2011 IMHO. I worry about our foreign policy being as poor as our domestic policy if Obama gets four more years. In any case, we're in big trouble if Obama gets back in.

What a frustratingly ridiculous thing to say, Bibi has been very complementary of his interaction with Obama. What does 'standing strong with Israel' even mean?

What is your point? Do you think you're going to change minds with baseless talking points? The only support you have is right-wing paranoia about an Obama that doesn't exist. You're more than welcome to believe it, but if he's re-elected, I'll look forward to hearing which candidate you're going to inflict your support upon next.

Obama is clinging to 8% unemployment and one trillion dollar deficits on the domestic front, and sending signals that he will abandon Israel and bow to Russian demands if re-elected. That's the point. You're more than welcome to cling to 8% unemployment, $4/gallon gasoline, one trillion dollar deficits, and abandoning our most important ally in the Middle East, but most of the rest of America have had enough with this administration's incompetence as you will witness on Election Night.

Hang on... did you just basically copy and paste that from somewhere else? Do you have a stump post?

Considering how bad you are at reading 'tea leaves', I'd be deeply impressed if you could show how Israel has been abandoned?

It is not just about where we are, but where we are headed. Obama has sent strong signals of division with Israel, signalling the potential of us abandoning them in a future hour of need. On the domestic front, Obama has us headed off a fiscal cliff. We cannot run $1 trillion deficits for four more years, or we'll go bankrupt by the end of the decade (on the watch of Obama's successor, whomever it may be). This is the path that Obama has us set on. With Obama, there is no light in sight. The next four years will look like the past four years.

In contrast, Romney will right the ship and produce the right results.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

So you haven't answered my question... a mix of your interpretations and talking points without a basis in fact.

You are aware what the Romney Budget plan, what little of we know would do to the deficit and debt? The Congress knows there would be a public revolt if they attempted to cuts service levels down to the point they would need to be to pay for $4 trillion more tax cuts. So all that does is add to both.

If you have an economic reform plan that doesn't include revenue raising to any degree, then you aren't serious about fixing an economy. You just want to cut taxes.

[Mister Twister]

Once again, it's just eerie to me how much this sounds like what I was thinking at this time in 2004.

I don't know any democrat who thought Bush's policies couldn't be changed or defeated even if he won a second term.  Our belief is that if Obama wins a second term, the policies that are enacted will stay permanently - developing a society that functions around cradle to grave government care that in short time gives way to an economic collapse that tips the balance of power in the world to Russia and China whilst the rest of the western world collapses into chaos. 

The democratic opposition to Bush was for a much less motivating reason.  It was primarily a combination of a feeling of delegitimacy left over from the 2000 election, anti-war protest and support for gay rights.  That's not like the opposition we have to Obama.  It wasn't the end of the country if Bush won a second term.  The country would make its typical cyclical shift between democrats and republicans every 8-12 years.  It certainly did during the 2008 election.  This year truly is different.  The feelings I described in the paragraph above are not just felt by a bubble of conservatives pushing conspiracy theories.  The view is near uniform among every single registered republican, even the republican moderates I know and many independents. 

You have no clue about the anger people felt about Bush in 2004. Hell, I still get angry thinking about it. We were fighting for the morals of the nation! We were fighting for the good name of America, a country that doesn't go around invading people just because it can.

That anger isn't even close to the feeling that your country will be irrevocably lost and destroyed. 

[J. J.]

Eh, it was dumb of me to stoop to name-calling, despite my statement being true in its most technical sense.

In any case, I'm baffled by the constant disparagement Biden. Much of it is as superficial as the feigned outrage over Michelle Obama's vegetable garden. What's the deal, Biden-haters? Still upset over him torpedoing Bork?

Ah, who is complaining about the garden.

Biden has had a sting of blunders, including some recently.  A joke on SNL last night was that Obama was doing well, and not hearing Biden's name in a month was an example.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Eh, it was dumb of me to stoop to name-calling, despite my statement being true in its most technical sense.

In any case, I'm baffled by the constant disparagement Biden. Much of it is as superficial as the feigned outrage over Michelle Obama's vegetable garden. What's the deal, Biden-haters? Still upset over him torpedoing Bork?

Ah, who is complaining about the garden.

Biden has had a sting of blunders, including some recently.  A joke on SNL last night was that Obama was doing well, and not hearing Biden's name in a month was an example.

We're aware that Biden isn't well-spoken. The thing is, he's not poorly-spoken in a way that indicates actual stupidity unless you're already invested in that being the case.

[Northeast Rep Snowball]

The Libyan intervention had more to do with Atlanticism than anything else, but I guess that it's all globalism to you, brother.

Me?  No.  What bothers me is the changing story about Libya, the serial and the attacks on about 20 embassies since then.

I've generally given Obama high marks on foreign police, but he blew this latest crisis.

I just want to chime in how disappointed I am with Obama's failure to stand strong with Israel. These turn of events have completely negated his foreign policy achievements from 2009-2011 IMHO. I worry about our foreign policy being as poor as our domestic policy if Obama gets four more years. In any case, we're in big trouble if Obama gets back in.

What a frustratingly ridiculous thing to say, Bibi has been very complementary of his interaction with Obama. What does 'standing strong with Israel' even mean?

What is your point? Do you think you're going to change minds with baseless talking points? The only support you have is right-wing paranoia about an Obama that doesn't exist. You're more than welcome to believe it, but if he's re-elected, I'll look forward to hearing which candidate you're going to inflict your support upon next.

Obama is clinging to 8% unemployment and one trillion dollar deficits on the domestic front, and sending signals that he will abandon Israel and bow to Russian demands if re-elected. That's the point. You're more than welcome to cling to 8% unemployment, $4/gallon gasoline, one trillion dollar deficits, and abandoning our most important ally in the Middle East, but most of the rest of America have had enough with this administration's incompetence as you will witness on Election Night.

Hang on... did you just basically copy and paste that from somewhere else? Do you have a stump post?

Considering how bad you are at reading 'tea leaves', I'd be deeply impressed if you could show how Israel has been abandoned?

It is not just about where we are, but where we are headed. Obama has sent strong signals of division with Israel, signalling the potential of us abandoning them in a future hour of need. On the domestic front, Obama has us headed off a fiscal cliff. We cannot run $1 trillion deficits for four more years, or we'll go bankrupt by the end of the decade (on the watch of Obama's successor, whomever it may be). This is the path that Obama has us set on. With Obama, there is no light in sight. The next four years will look like the past four years.

In contrast, Romney will right the ship and produce the right results.

So whats your answer to the fiscal cliff (which we already have), cut taxes and increase spending to have the same problem in Europe, or keep the tax increase and spending cuts which could lead to a recession. The deficits are going to increase with Romney's tax cuts unless he cuts out all help for those who need it, and finally you offer no evidence of what you are saying, and wrap it all in subjective things such as "no light in sight" which sounds nice but means nothing

[Politico]

The central achievement of the Romney Administration will be tax reform. We'll downgrade all of the marginal rates by 20% and eliminate deductions that only benefit lawyers/accountants in order to ensure tax receipts do not fall too much in the short-run. Here is a good paper on the issue: http://www.nber.org/feldstein/wsj08282012.pdf

Spending that can be cut or transferred onto the states will be cut or transferred onto the states. Obviously it needs to be done in such a way that we do not cause a recession.

[Marokai Backbeat]

The central achievement of the Romney Administration will be tax reform. We'll downgrade all of the marginal rates by 20% and eliminate deductions that only benefit lawyers/accountants in order to ensure tax receipts do not fall too much in the short-run. Here is a good paper on the issue: http://www.nber.org/feldstein/wsj08282012.pdf

Spending that can be cut or transferred onto the states will be cut or transferred onto the states. Obviously it needs to be done in such a way that we do not cause a recession.

Hey guys, an adviser to the Romney campaign with magic numbers he made up himself in a two page paper says the plan will work!

[Politico]

The central achievement of the Romney Administration will be tax reform. We'll downgrade all of the marginal rates by 20% and eliminate deductions that only benefit lawyers/accountants in order to ensure tax receipts do not fall too much in the short-run. Here is a good paper on the issue: http://www.nber.org/feldstein/wsj08282012.pdf

Spending that can be cut or transferred onto the states will be cut or transferred onto the states. Obviously it needs to be done in such a way that we do not cause a recession.

Hey guys, an adviser to the Romney campaign with magic numbers he made up himself in a two page paper says the plan will work!

If you want the next four years to look like the past four years, by all means vote to give Obama four more years. Otherwise, you may want to reconsider...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The central achievement of the Romney Administration will be tax reform. We'll downgrade all of the marginal rates by 20% and eliminate deductions that only benefit lawyers/accountants in order to ensure tax receipts do not fall too much in the short-run. Here is a good paper on the issue: http://www.nber.org/feldstein/wsj08282012.pdf

Spending that can be cut or transferred onto the states will be cut or transferred onto the states. Obviously it needs to be done in such a way that we do not cause a recession.

Hey guys, an adviser to the Romney campaign with magic numbers he made up himself in a two page paper says the plan will work!

If you want the next four years to look like the past four years, by all means vote to give Obama four more years. Otherwise, you may want to reconsider...

If the ONLY evidence you have to attest that Romney will do anything other than blow out the deficit and debt further, is a puff piece by a Romney Campaign adviser and disciple of trickle-down... then you've already lost the argument.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

The central achievement of the Romney Administration will be tax reform. We'll downgrade all of the marginal rates by 20% and eliminate deductions that only benefit lawyers/accountants in order to ensure tax receipts do not fall too much in the short-run. Here is a good paper on the issue: http://www.nber.org/feldstein/wsj08282012.pdf

Spending that can be cut or transferred onto the states will be cut or transferred onto the states. Obviously it needs to be done in such a way that we do not cause a recession.

Hey guys, an adviser to the Romney campaign with magic numbers he made up himself in a two page paper says the plan will work!

If you want the next four years to look like the past four years, by all means vote to give Obama four more years. Otherwise, you may want to reconsider...

Unless one is some sort of reverse Dr Pangloss it is entirely reasonable to want that if the alternative looks to be worse or more nonsensical.

[Averroës Nix]

I imagine that discussing the last four years with Politico would be Rashomon-esque experience.

[Ronnie]

Thanks a lot, Dick.  Now I know Romney won't win.

[Politico]

I imagine that discussing the last four years with Politico would be Rashomon-esque experience.

You're clinging to 8% unemployment and one trillion dollar deficits. Go watch John Kerry's commercials from 2004. I would have called you nuts had you told me in 2004 that Democrats would be defending this economic environment in 2012.

Everybody knows that Obama inherited a bad situation, but so did Ronald Reagan in 1981. The difference between the two is that Reagan made things better whereas Obama has put the long-term future at risk without achieving promised gains in the short-term (i.e., Obama has sacrificed the future in order to reward special interest groups in the present). Like it or not, the last four years belong to Obama. If you want the next four years to look like the past four years, by all means vote to give Obama four more years...

[Torie]

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I would hope his central achievement would be entitlement reform, if elected.  Romney's tax ideas in general make some sense, but the numbers don't add up, because he won't own up to doing away with all those big ticket but very popular Schedule A deductions - mortgage interest, state and local taxes, and most particularly, charitable deductions (how popular will that be with the LDS I wonder?). Nor has he even come up with a means testing finesse. So he won't be able to get the rates down as advertised. Mittens is going the all gain, no pain, supply side route. Would that it be so easy. Sadly it isn't. Even sadder, is that both candidates have a big courage gap. It's discouraging.

[Northeast Rep Snowball]

You have to have a stump speech with this mess that you repeat


"If you want the next four years to look like the past four years, by all means vote to give Obama four more years..."

also we started out in 2008 way worse than Reagan, also in !983, 30 states still had double digits unemployment, and the total unemployment rate was the same as when he came into office

[Badger]

Dick Morris can and is amazingly wrong most of the time.  However, he is borrowing this line of thought from other people and thus he is correct.  There is absolutely no way that Obama is going to outperform his 2008 numbers and pollsters are using democratic sample sizes larger than 2008.  I also disagree with the myth of the Reagan polls.  Reagan did lead throughout much of the summer.  That has nothing to do with the belief that the polls are wrong in my view.

1st - The feeling isn't in the air.  I don't see the enthusiasm like I saw in 2008 where nearly every single person I knew outside of my family was voting for Obama.  I don't see signs, shirts and other campaign materials.  In 2008, all I saw was a sea of Obama signs.  This year I see much more enthusiasm for Romney and I know multitudes of people who voted for Obama that are either staying home or voting for Romney - and yes, this is post-convention.  I live in a heavily democratic city too.  In the recent primary, turnout was 48% on the republican side, 52% on the democratic side.  Make what you will.

2nd - If there is a groundswell it's deeply hidden as if democrats are embarrassed to reveal that they are voting for Obama.  I remember in 2008 seeing people proudly proclaim their allegiance.  It's not so this year.  I see dismay, dissappointment and anger by people who voted for him other than the most left wing.

3rd - Among conservatives, the anger at what Obama is doing is unbelievably deep and increases daily.  It's not even close to the anger that democrats had at Bush or republicans had of Clinton in the 90s.  Republicans truly feel that they will lose their country if the president wins another term.  Go watch the ending of 2016: Obama's America and that is exactly what republicans see in a second Obama term.  So put yourself in our shoes for a second, if that's what we see for the future, do you honestly believe that we're staying home?

So yes, its very logical to believe that the polls are using hilariously bad models. That's why I will take great pleasure in watching the false hope fade from democrats' eyes as the president gives his concession speech on election night.

HI NHMAGIC!

The offer below is now open to you as well. I've already got Politico in, so you can either add/share your choice of sig for me to display, or I'll brandish your choice for the 2 months (or however many exact days there are between election day and inauguration day) after the inauguration--your choice.

Still feeling confident?

POLITICO!!!

There, now that I have your attention....

You talked about "talking the talk, but not walking the walk". I am MORE than happy to give you the chance.

Try to be more a statatician then a zealot in analyzing elections, and I think that's your shortcoming here.

I willing to bet you the outcome of any current 08 Obama state at $5 each EXCEPT CO & FL & NC; I'll also give you 5-8 odds on OH, VA, IA, NH and WI (yes, I'm excluding NV from that list) and 2-1 odds on any other Obama 08 states.

I'll be glad to give you 3-2 odds on a $20 bet over the entire election as well. Alternatively, we can bet the other having to bare a (non-TOS violating) sig of the other's choice until Inauguration Day.

Time to walk the walk, Mr. Optomist........

[Badger]

1st - The feeling isn't in the air.  I don't see the enthusiasm like I saw in 2008 where nearly every single person I knew outside of my family was voting for Obama.  I don't see signs, shirts and other campaign materials.  In 2008, all I saw was a sea of Obama signs.  This year I see much more enthusiasm for Romney and I know multitudes of people who voted for Obama that are either staying home or voting for Romney - and yes, this is post-convention.  I live in a heavily democratic city too.  In the recent primary, turnout was 48% on the republican side, 52% on the democratic side.  Make what you will.

J. J.'s Third Rule of Elections:  Supposed indicators, crowd size, signs and bumper stickers, letters to the editor, are meaningless in terms of actual voter support, though might be an indicator of campaign organization.

I have seen more Obama signs left over from 2008 than I have for 2012, but I'm not in a hotly contested state.

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The polling seems to be lower and if Obama is reelected, it will likely be with fewer EV's.  The polls indicate a tight race.

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The conservative might be more fired up by events.  Obama is dead, but al Qaeda lives.  The handling of the Islamic world may inspire more Republicans than Democrats; Libya may turn into a net minus for Obama.  Operation Fast and Furious will inspire many on the right to vote against Obama, and may energize the base.

How about you, J.J.? You admittedly haven't been nearly as over the top unrealistic as Politico or NH Magic, but I still detect enough confidence in your posts to satisfy a betting man.

Consider the offer below open to you too.

POLITICO!!!

There, now that I have your attention....

You talked about "talking the talk, but not walking the walk". I am MORE than happy to give you the chance.

Try to be more a statatician then a zealot in analyzing elections, and I think that's your shortcoming here.

I willing to bet you the outcome of any current 08 Obama state at $5 each EXCEPT CO & FL & NC; I'll also give you 5-8 odds on OH, VA, IA, NH and WI (yes, I'm excluding NV from that list) and 2-1 odds on any other Obama 08 states.

I'll be glad to give you 3-2 odds on a $20 bet over the entire election as well. Alternatively, we can bet the other having to bare a (non-TOS violating) sig of the other's choice until Inauguration Day.

Time to walk the walk, Mr. Optomist........