Dick Morris: What Many Polls Are Missing

[Badger]

Dick morris. Lol.

I love how has epic fail map above labels himself 'political analyst extraordinaire'.

EDIT: My offer still stands, Politico. Time to walk the walk....

[Badger]

Dick Morris can and is amazingly wrong most of the time.  However, he is borrowing this line of thought from other people and thus he is correct.  There is absolutely no way that Obama is going to outperform his 2008 numbers and pollsters are using democratic sample sizes larger than 2008.  I also disagree with the myth of the Reagan polls.  Reagan did lead throughout much of the summer.  That has nothing to do with the belief that the polls are wrong in my view.

1st - The feeling isn't in the air.  I don't see the enthusiasm like I saw in 2008 where nearly every single person I knew outside of my family was voting for Obama.  I don't see signs, shirts and other campaign materials.  In 2008, all I saw was a sea of Obama signs.  This year I see much more enthusiasm for Romney and I know multitudes of people who voted for Obama that are either staying home or voting for Romney - and yes, this is post-convention.  I live in a heavily democratic city too.  In the recent primary, turnout was 48% on the republican side, 52% on the democratic side.  Make what you will.

2nd - If there is a groundswell it's deeply hidden as if democrats are embarrassed to reveal that they are voting for Obama.  I remember in 2008 seeing people proudly proclaim their allegiance.  It's not so this year.  I see dismay, dissappointment and anger by people who voted for him other than the most left wing.

3rd - Among conservatives, the anger at what Obama is doing is unbelievably deep and increases daily.  It's not even close to the anger that democrats had at Bush or republicans had of Clinton in the 90s.  Republicans truly feel that they will lose their country if the president wins another term.  Go watch the ending of 2016: Obama's America and that is exactly what republicans see in a second Obama term.  So put yourself in our shoes for a second, if that's what we see for the future, do you honestly believe that we're staying home?

So yes, its very logical to believe that the polls are using hilariously bad models. That's why I will take great pleasure in watching the false hope fade from democrats' eyes as the president gives his concession speech on election night.

HI NHMAGIC!

The offer below is now open to you as well. I've already got Politico in, so you can either add/share your choice of sig for me to display, or I'll brandish your choice for the 2 months (or however many exact days there are between election day and inauguration day) after the inauguration--your choice.

Still feeling confident?

POLITICO!!!

There, now that I have your attention....

You talked about "talking the talk, but not walking the walk". I am MORE than happy to give you the chance.

Try to be more a statatician then a zealot in analyzing elections, and I think that's your shortcoming here.

I willing to bet you the outcome of any current 08 Obama state at $5 each EXCEPT CO & FL & NC; I'll also give you 5-8 odds on OH, VA, IA, NH and WI (yes, I'm excluding NV from that list) and 2-1 odds on any other Obama 08 states.

I'll be glad to give you 3-2 odds on a $20 bet over the entire election as well. Alternatively, we can bet the other having to bare a (non-TOS violating) sig of the other's choice until Inauguration Day.

Time to walk the walk, Mr. Optomist........

[Badger]

1st - The feeling isn't in the air.  I don't see the enthusiasm like I saw in 2008 where nearly every single person I knew outside of my family was voting for Obama.  I don't see signs, shirts and other campaign materials.  In 2008, all I saw was a sea of Obama signs.  This year I see much more enthusiasm for Romney and I know multitudes of people who voted for Obama that are either staying home or voting for Romney - and yes, this is post-convention.  I live in a heavily democratic city too.  In the recent primary, turnout was 48% on the republican side, 52% on the democratic side.  Make what you will.

J. J.'s Third Rule of Elections:  Supposed indicators, crowd size, signs and bumper stickers, letters to the editor, are meaningless in terms of actual voter support, though might be an indicator of campaign organization.

I have seen more Obama signs left over from 2008 than I have for 2012, but I'm not in a hotly contested state.

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The polling seems to be lower and if Obama is reelected, it will likely be with fewer EV's.  The polls indicate a tight race.

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The conservative might be more fired up by events.  Obama is dead, but al Qaeda lives.  The handling of the Islamic world may inspire more Republicans than Democrats; Libya may turn into a net minus for Obama.  Operation Fast and Furious will inspire many on the right to vote against Obama, and may energize the base.

How about you, J.J.? You admittedly haven't been nearly as over the top unrealistic as Politico or NH Magic, but I still detect enough confidence in your posts to satisfy a betting man.

Consider the offer below open to you too.

POLITICO!!!

There, now that I have your attention....

You talked about "talking the talk, but not walking the walk". I am MORE than happy to give you the chance.

Try to be more a statatician then a zealot in analyzing elections, and I think that's your shortcoming here.

I willing to bet you the outcome of any current 08 Obama state at $5 each EXCEPT CO & FL & NC; I'll also give you 5-8 odds on OH, VA, IA, NH and WI (yes, I'm excluding NV from that list) and 2-1 odds on any other Obama 08 states.

I'll be glad to give you 3-2 odds on a $20 bet over the entire election as well. Alternatively, we can bet the other having to bare a (non-TOS violating) sig of the other's choice until Inauguration Day.

Time to walk the walk, Mr. Optomist........

[Badger]

How about you, J.J.? You admittedly haven't been nearly as over the top unrealistic as Politico or NH Magic, but I still detect enough confidence in your posts to satisfy a betting man.

Consider the offer below open to you too.

POLITICO!!!

There, now that I have your attention....

You talked about "talking the talk, but not walking the walk". I am MORE than happy to give you the chance.

Try to be more a statatician then a zealot in analyzing elections, and I think that's your shortcoming here.

I willing to bet you the outcome of any current 08 Obama state at $5 each EXCEPT CO & FL & NC; I'll also give you 5-8 odds on OH, VA, IA, NH and WI (yes, I'm excluding NV from that list) and 2-1 odds on any other Obama 08 states.

I'll be glad to give you 3-2 odds on a $20 bet over the entire election as well. Alternatively, we can bet the other having to bare a (non-TOS violating) sig of the other's choice until Inauguration Day.

Time to walk the walk, Mr. Optomist........

Ask me next Tuesday.

There are some good signs. 

Catch me Tuesday if I don't catch you first.

Or tell me when those "good signs" are enough to make you want to bet more than espuse maybes.