2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3

[TarHeelDem]

AK-AL (Alaska Survey Research):

https://twitter.com/lruskin/status/1049756787082219520

What's the margin of error on this?

[GeorgiaModerate]

AK-AL (Alaska Survey Research):

https://twitter.com/lruskin/status/1049756787082219520

What's the margin of error on this?

4.4%.  The poll details are here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/13gTXhrZlbn3FRMbCoSIC1PkIyUWa3gEN/view.

[TheRocketRaccoon]

FL-9 SurveyUSA: Soto (D-inc) 48, Liebnitzky (R) 40

http://www.mynews13.com/fl/orlando/news/2018/10/09/race-tightens-for-u-s--house-district-9

[Person Man]

AK-AL (Alaska Survey Research):

https://twitter.com/lruskin/status/1049756787082219520

What's the margin of error on this?

4.4%.  The poll details are here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/13gTXhrZlbn3FRMbCoSIC1PkIyUWa3gEN/view.

Tossup Alaska?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

FL-9 SurveyUSA: Soto (D-inc) 48, Liebnitzky (R) 40

http://www.mynews13.com/fl/orlando/news/2018/10/09/race-tightens-for-u-s--house-district-9

Darren (aka "2luv") Soto

http://gawker.com/congressional-candidate-wrote-about-banging-drunk-law-s-1771789249

[NOVA Green]

AK-AL (Alaska Survey Research):

https://twitter.com/lruskin/status/1049756787082219520

What's the margin of error on this?

4.4%.  The poll details are here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/13gTXhrZlbn3FRMbCoSIC1PkIyUWa3gEN/view.

Tossup Alaska?

They are technically part of the Pacific Northwest, albeit a bit more ornery (Throw in a decent dash of Maine, Coastal Oregon, Native Voters, then mix it up a bit with some Resource based communities (Mining & Petro), add in a MatSu, et voila you have a unique Molotov cocktail that could potentially hit a tank turret against a Panzer Mark I circa WW II....

Not saying this will happen, but honestly it wouldn't surprise me to see something unusual happen in Alaska-AL in '18 or '20....

[Antonio the Sixth]

Alaska polls are usually junk. Galvin could win but this doesn't tell us very much.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

https://twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/1049264710808494080?s=19

Also important: In 2016, the GOP lost seats.

2014 was the best year for House Republicans since 1928, though.

[TheRocketRaccoon]

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/10/poll-kavanaugh-midterms-885940

Politico/MC: GCB D+10 (48-38)

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[ON Progressive]

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/10/poll-kavanaugh-midterms-885940

Politico/MC: GCB D+10 (48-38)

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Where’s the Kavanaugh bump? I was told by Beltway pundits that we were going to get a red wave because of the least popular Supreme Court nominee in history.

[wbrocks67]

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/10/poll-kavanaugh-midterms-885940

Politico/MC: GCB D+10 (48-38)

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Where’s the Kavanaugh bump? I was told by Beltway pundits that we were going to get a red wave because of the least popular Supreme Court nominee in history.

And just like that... pundits are wrong again. My problem I think with these pundits though is that they are so assured they are right, and then get defensive when presented with evidence that they were wrong.

[MillennialModerate]

This thread is looking less and less as a “needless” “concern trolling” by the day.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

This thread is looking less and less as a “needless” “concern trolling” by the day.

Generic ballot has been trending up by the day... you peed your pants too quick.

[TheRocketRaccoon]

This thread is looking less and less as a “needless” “concern trolling” by the day.

My sympathies to your parents for having to raise an intellectually dishonest child

[Brittain33]

I’m so tempted to sticky this thread so the OP can collect his accolades on Election Day when Republicans enjoy a 2016-type surprise red wave.

[TheSaint250]

AK-AL (Alaska Survey Research):

https://twitter.com/lruskin/status/1049756787082219520

#IndependentWave #NoBlueWave #NoRedWave #PeoplesWave

[MillennialModerate]

This thread is looking less and less as a “needless” “concern trolling” by the day.

Generic ballot has been trending up by the day... you peed your pants too quick.

False. Generic ballot trending up but not enough AND the Senate races are all slipping away.

We need to keep the Senate at 53-47/52-48 range to have any shot whatsoever of taking the Senate in ‘20 and thus having a somewhat reasonable supreme court in the future and to fix what the Trumpers have screwed up in recent years.

And at this point the GOP is gonna end up with 54 seats at a minimum and the house may be in our favor but it wouldn’t be by much. I think you’d need a tsunami like number in the generic ballot for anywhere near a GOOD wave.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

This thread is looking less and less as a “needless” “concern trolling” by the day.

Generic ballot has been trending up by the day... you peed your pants too quick.

False. Generic ballot trending up but not enough AND the Senate races are all slipping away.

We need to keep the Senate at 53-47/52-48 range to have any shot whatsoever of taking the Senate in ‘20 and thus having a somewhat reasonable supreme court in the future and to fix what the Trumpers have screwed up in recent years.

And at this point the GOP is gonna end up with 54 seats at a minimum and the house may be in our favor but it wouldn’t be by much. I think you’d need a tsunami like number in the generic ballot for anywhere near a GOOD wave.

I am sure going to take the analysis of someone who thinks NV Senate is fools gold because Rosen was down by 2 in a recent poll seriously. It's not like NV has an extremely consistent pro repub bias in polls (just like TN has a consistent pro dem bias in polls).


Watch your favorite show or work out or something. No one likes an anxious Annie.

[Brittain33]

And at this point the GOP is gonna end up with 54 seats at a minimum

That is quite a prediction.

I mean, it's a reasonable prediction that the GOP ends up with 54 seats. That could happen, and it would be a crappy night for Dems. But not as a *minimum*.

[GeorgiaModerate]

This thread is looking less and less as a “needless” “concern trolling” by the day.

Generic ballot has been trending up by the day... you peed your pants too quick.

False. Generic ballot trending up but not enough AND the Senate races are all slipping away.

We need to keep the Senate at 53-47/52-48 range to have any shot whatsoever of taking the Senate in ‘20 and thus having a somewhat reasonable supreme court in the future and to fix what the Trumpers have screwed up in recent years.

And at this point the GOP is gonna end up with 54 seats at a minimum and the house may be in our favor but it wouldn’t be by much. I think you’d need a tsunami like number in the generic ballot for anywhere near a GOOD wave.

Are we sure this isn't LimoLiberal?  Anyway, off to the Ignore list.

[2016]

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/10/poll-kavanaugh-midterms-885940

Politico/MC: GCB D+10 (48-38)

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Where’s the Kavanaugh bump? I was told by Beltway pundits that we were going to get a red wave because of the least popular Supreme Court nominee in history.

And just like that... pundits are wrong again. My problem I think with these pundits though is that they are so assured they are right, and then get defensive when presented with evidence that they were wrong.

Generic Polls do not translate into deep Red State Senate Races. How often do I need to tell that?

[2016]

This Poll should give Democrats some pause...

http://www.mynews13.com/fl/orlando/news/2018/10/09/race-tightens-for-u-s--house-district-9

The FL-9 has become a heavy Minority District because FL was forced to redistrict their Congressional Lines ahead of the 2016 Elections.

And I personally think the D's Support among Latinos are heavily overblown in a MidTerm Year cuz they don't vote they usually do in a POTUS year.

[KingSweden]

For the sake of consistency, I will be skeptical of those Politico/MC numbers

[ON Progressive]

This Poll should give Democrats some pause...

http://www.mynews13.com/fl/orlando/news/2018/10/09/race-tightens-for-u-s--house-district-9

The FL-9 has become a heavy Minority District because FL was forced to redistrict their Congressional Lines ahead of the 2016 Elections.

And I personally think the D's Support among Latinos are heavily overblown in a MidTerm Year cuz they don't vote they usually do in a POTUS year.

This same pollster was only Soto +7 in the primary (he ended up winning by 32 points), so they are very likely undersampling Latinos.

[TheRocketRaccoon]

Rasssssss GCB: 45-45

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot