Civil War in Syria

[kelestian]

Al-Nusra controlled Idlib province. Some times ago there were rumours that according to Astana agreement Turkey would attack Nusra positions and give these territories to moderate rebels, but at the end Turkish forces colluded with islamists against Kurds in Afrin canton.

[kelestian]

Election would solve the problem? In Syria? Where there were not fair elections in 50 years?

I think solution can be autonomy for kurdish regions and for de-escalation (opposition) territories and maybe if government give quarter of parliamentary seats to opposition and quarter to Kurds. But there are two major problems - kurds controll too much territory, half of their territory now is with Arab majority. And second - Idlib province and an-Nusra

[kelestian]

Rojava is the biggest enemy of the Turks in Syria. They'd prefer Assad ruling rather than Kurdish autonomy.

[kelestian]

http://www.dw.com/en/turkish-jets-bomb-syrias-kurdish-held-afrin/a-42234813

Turkey and proxy rebels have started an operation against SDF in Afrin canton. This is the smallest of Kurdish cantons, with no borders with others SDF-held territories.

[kelestian]

Syrian AA missiles shot down IAF F-16i during IAF raid in Syria. Plane crashed in Israel. Situation escalates quickly

[kelestian]

This looks so obviously stupid for Assad, and so obviously convenient for Western war hawks, that I am immediately suspicious and skeptical.

Not sure how it's stupid for Assad.  He's gotten away with chemical weapons attacks in the past, and he'll continue to do so in the future.

Well, I haven't been following the war super-closely, but from what I've been reading the Syrians-Russians-Iranians have it mostly won at this point. And Trump was just talking about pulling out last week.

So it Assad (or whoever calls the shots) is risking pulling the US back in in a big way, against the miniscule military benefit of a single act of terror. So it seems like a really dumb move.

Depends on what you mean by "mostly won".  Assad is winning, and not in any danger of losing any more territory.  Yet, it'll still take years for him to reclaim all the lost territory, if he ever manages to do it.

Last year's chemical weapons attack resulted in a single air strike from the US in response, and I'm not sure why this would be any different.  Trump already said that he wants to leave Syria anyway.  Maybe this'll help convince him to stay around a little longer.  But stay around in order to do what?  Attack ISIS more?  Assad would be fine with that.  Go to war against Assad?  I don't see any reason to believe that's going to happen.

US rockets destroyed about quarter of operational Syrian war planes year ago.

[kelestian]

It's a shame the Assad regime can't somehow be forced to finally accept they lost the Golan heights and it's Israeli now.

They accepted it, de-facto. But there is still ISIS enclave, near Israeli border.

[kelestian]

IS can return to their guerilla tactis, like in Iraq. Just yesterday tribal leaders in Hawija  asked Bagdad to launch military operation in their territories, because IS controlled all the roads in the nighttime.

[kelestian]

Well, yes, there is logic in Trump's decision, Turkey is more valuable ally to USA than Kurds, but with bipartisan anti-Turkish coalition in both House and Senate Turkey still would be drifting toward Moscow-Teheran axis. Erdogan had endless talks with Trump in the past, it didn't stop US sanctions and exclusion Turkey from F-35 program. Probably it just has hold over point of ho return in USA-Turkey relations.