The Wisconsin Cheese Showdown

[MasterJedi]

Walker is not going to back down, so my only question is what happens if the Dems don't come back to Madison? I really don't know what the rules are about that such as if they'd lose their jobs after a certain amount of time or more likely they get to be paid for doing nothing.

[Brittain33]

None of this is any different from what Walker and the Republicans already had planned for this session, and could pass without the Democrats' votes.

The real action is whether any of the moderate Republican senators are wavering on his union busting bill. At least one is.

Here it comes. Fight back!

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0211/49919_Page3.html


There had been some fear from Democrats earlier Monday that Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald might try to separate the collective bargaining provisions from the overall budget bill and hold a vote on the legislation’s most controversial piece, because it technically does not involve the budget and would not require a quorum of 20 members. But, for now, Fitzgerald does not intend to do so, according to local reports. A spokesman for Fitzgerald did not immediately respond to a request for comment.


Fitzgerald said Republicans may try to force the Democrats to return this week by calling a bill to the floor that would require voters to show identification at polling places - a bill Democrats oppose because they worry it will disenfranchise some voters. And Walker tried to add fear in his press conference Monday night by saying that if the legislature does not act on his budget soon, he will have to lay off 1,500 state workers because of the savings that will be lost.



Time to move on these bills. They will pass unanimously.

[Brittain33]

Walker is not going to back down, so my only question is what happens if the Dems don't come back to Madison? I really don't know what the rules are about that such as if they'd lose their jobs after a certain amount of time or more likely they get to be paid for doing nothing.

Walker isn't going to back down, but 3 Republican senators might.

We've seen what happens when the minority party obstructs and forces the majority to take tough decisions that make a subset of voters very angry and unhappy... the electorate goes for balance. Some of those Republican senators want to stay in office past next year and don't share Walker's desire for a total clash of civilizations with a good chunk of their constituents.

Check out this chart:

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/8405/wisconsin-presidential-results-by-state-senate-district

Three Republican senators represent districts won by John Kerry, with a fourth going 49%-50%. The number of Republican senators in districts not won by Obama is, um, 5 out of 19. These senators may recognize that while 2008 isn't coming back, neither is 2010, and gerrymandering is only going to do so much to save them from the consequences of Walker's overreach. How many of them want to be the Dina Titus, John Salazar, or Dan Maffei to Walker's Obama?

[Brittain33]

Two polls—one commissioned by the AFL-CIO with a reputable pollster, another by WeAskAmerica—show Walker upside down on this issue. I encourage people to look at the polls rather than just the sponsorship, although of course sponsorship can't be ignored.

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2011/02/new_poll_of_wisconsin.php?ref=fpblg

I think there's a Rasmussen poll on the other side which Nate Silver picked apart for leading questions before asking people's approval.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/02/21/rasmussen-poll-on-wisconsin-dispute-may-be-biased/

[Torie]

Walker is not going to back down, so my only question is what happens if the Dems don't come back to Madison? I really don't know what the rules are about that such as if they'd lose their jobs after a certain amount of time or more likely they get to be paid for doing nothing.

One story suggested the GOP is thinking of enacting into law one bill after another that the Dems hate for which you don't need a quorum because it does not involve financial issues apparently. First up is requiring that you show ID to vote. The thought is that this series of tactical nuclear strikes will induce to Dems to fold in order to stop the bleeding.

And at this point, if some Pubbie state senators desert, they had better either change parties or retire I suspect. A division of the House has been called, and whichever door you walk through is one from which you can't walk back out. That seems to be the lay of the land to me.

[Brittain33]

Walker is not going to back down, so my only question is what happens if the Dems don't come back to Madison? I really don't know what the rules are about that such as if they'd lose their jobs after a certain amount of time or more likely they get to be paid for doing nothing.

One story suggested the GOP is thinking of enacting into law one bill after another that the Dems hate for which you don't need a quorum because it does not involve financial issues apparently. First up is requiring that you show ID to vote. The thought is that this series of tactical nuclear strikes will induce to Dems to fold in order to stop the bleeding.

Won't those bills pass anyway when the Dems return? Republicans had already announced that they would introduce and pass those bills, and if they need only a simple majority, they'll have it with or without a fiscal bill quorum. I don't see how this constitutes a trump card.

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This sounds like Democrats talking about whipping votes for the health care bill. They got their wish. Is it hard to imagine that many state senators in Wisconsin support a compromise that cuts costs without going to the full monty on union-busting? Walker is Governor, not Prime Minister. He is elected statewide and has the luxury of building a 50+1% coalition that senators from districts with less anti-union voters don't have. I think that what Walker, and what partisans in other parts of the country want, should not be presumed to be what the senate Republican caucus wants, and certainly not what the voters of Wisconsin want. The governor can draw a line in the sand but the senators are not obligated to deliver 100% when they find they are personally more than happy with 70%.

[Torie]

It won't look good if the Dems are AWOL while bill after bill is passed. But we shall see. As I said, it is a mere tactical nuke, that the "big one."

You don't think Pubbie turncoats will be primaried? 

I would have done this all more subtly myself. I support the goal of truncating public employee union power. They can be a voice for their members, but the structure needs to be changed, so they don't have the power to be so toxic to the public interest in the future as I see it, both as to how schools are run (or other institutions for which they serve), and as to off balance sheet pension benefits, and other maneuvers that don't instantly bust the budget, but will in due time, not to mention cause the classrooms to be loaded with incompetents at the front of the room facing the kids. Just how to do that requires some thought, but that is what I would do.

The way state and local governments operate needs to be changed. It just isn't working. Interestingly, as to federal employees, most of these issues do not exist nearly to the same degree. The dirty little secret is that the federal government is run better than most of the more local ones. I have to laugh at the Pubbies for suggesting otherwise, when the evidence is so clear and convincing that it is the opposite that is true.

[Brittain33]

You don't think Pubbie turncoats will be primaried?  

In some of these districts? No, I don't. Sam has often mentioned that the Tea Party is a suburban phenomenon. The suburban senators aren't the ones at risk here. Many senators were elected just because the electorate was old and anti-PPACA last year, not because they all read Atlas Shrugged in October. I don't think that even Republican primary voters in many parts of Wisconsin are as hard-line as you and Walker are on this issue, although I'm only guessing, especially when the Republicans have already secured massive givebacks of money from the unions.

[opebo]

Food service department at a historical attraction.

So how do you survive?  And don't you find your poverty would tend to serve as an argument near-at-hand in favor of unions?

I actually like making money, so I show up to work.  And I'm not exactly in poverty.

I get a salary and rarely go to work.  How can you imagine you are not in poverty if you work in food service?  Tell us how much you make.

[Torie]

You don't think Pubbie turncoats will be primaried? 

In some of these districts? No, I don't. Sam has often mentioned that the Tea Party is a suburban phenomenon. The suburban senators aren't the ones at risk here. I don't think that even Republican primary voters in many parts of Wisconsin are as hard-line as you and Walker are on this issue, although I'm only guessing, especially when the Republicans have already secured massive givebacks of money from the unions.

I certainly don't claim to be an expert on the Pubbie mindset in small town and rural Wisconsin. Krazen77 may have a thought or two about that. In any event, it seems reasonable that this contretemps has polarized voters, and I would be surprised that even assuming this cohort of voters have not been in the front lines of the tea party phalanxes, they have not moved somewhat in their direction.

I do think we should have learned something from the Obamacare cf. It can be a mistake to not try to get what is most critical done with a bit more consensus, rather than go for the gold and do a divide of the House, where the losing side will be working 24/7 to undermine what has been wrought at every turn.  We did that with the abortion issue (well SCOTUS did), and we have been living with the negative consequences ever since. It simply increases exponentially the toxicity quotient in the public square. As I say, if I were Walker I would have been more subtle - and patient - and flexible at least to some extent, if only for cosmetic reasons.

One thought (as an alternative to a law that unions simply can't talk about pension and medical benefits at all) is if you change the accounting rules to put all pension liabilities on the balance sheet now, thereby busting the budget, with  budgets really do needing to be balanced with no accounting games, that in and of itself might put an end to the sordid practice of politicians of both parties juicing up public employee pension plans which just coincidentally juice up their own. That is what the Pubbie Supervisors in Orange County did, a majority of them. They juiced up County employee pension plans - retroactively - thereby putting their own compensation on steroids. The first imperative is greed.

Do politicians try to think creatively at all?  Just asking.

[Torie]

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I could not exist like that myself. It would not comport with my conscience.

[Brittain33]

You don't think Pubbie turncoats will be primaried? 

In some of these districts? No, I don't. Sam has often mentioned that the Tea Party is a suburban phenomenon. The suburban senators aren't the ones at risk here. I don't think that even Republican primary voters in many parts of Wisconsin are as hard-line as you and Walker are on this issue, although I'm only guessing, especially when the Republicans have already secured massive givebacks of money from the unions.

I certainly don't claim to be an expert on the Pubbie mindset in small town and rural Wisconsin. Krazen77 may have a thought or two about that.

Krazen lives in NJ, I think?

[Torie]

Two polls—one commissioned by the AFL-CIO with a reputable pollster, another by WeAskAmerica—show Walker upside down on this issue. I encourage people to look at the polls rather than just the sponsorship, although of course sponsorship can't be ignored.

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2011/02/new_poll_of_wisconsin.php?ref=fpblg

I think there's a Rasmussen poll on the other side which Nate Silver picked apart for leading questions before asking people's approval.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/02/21/rasmussen-poll-on-wisconsin-dispute-may-be-biased/

I have to agree that that Ras poll is simply awful. What a joke! I am beginning to worry that Ras is turning into a whore.

[Torie]

You don't think Pubbie turncoats will be primaried? 

In some of these districts? No, I don't. Sam has often mentioned that the Tea Party is a suburban phenomenon. The suburban senators aren't the ones at risk here. I don't think that even Republican primary voters in many parts of Wisconsin are as hard-line as you and Walker are on this issue, although I'm only guessing, especially when the Republicans have already secured massive givebacks of money from the unions.

I certainly don't claim to be an expert on the Pubbie mindset in small town and rural Wisconsin. Krazen77 may have a thought or two about that.

Krazen lives in NJ, I think?

Oh. I thought Wisconsin, since he seems so informed on the doings there on this issue.

[Landslide Lyndon]

You don't think Pubbie turncoats will be primaried? 

In some of these districts? No, I don't. Sam has often mentioned that the Tea Party is a suburban phenomenon. The suburban senators aren't the ones at risk here. I don't think that even Republican primary voters in many parts of Wisconsin are as hard-line as you and Walker are on this issue, although I'm only guessing, especially when the Republicans have already secured massive givebacks of money from the unions.

I certainly don't claim to be an expert on the Pubbie mindset in small town and rural Wisconsin. Krazen77 may have a thought or two about that.

Krazen lives in NJ, I think?

Didn't he say that he's from Florida?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I remember a fuss here when some Republicans in the State House switched sides to override Pawlenty's gas tax veto. The one who was primaried was from a suburban more liberal district which Obama ended up winning solidly. At least one of the others was from a very conservative rural district, and they won with no problems. Please note this was 2008 as well.

[opebo]

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I could not exist like that myself. It would not comport with my conscience.

Your conscience is an ass.  I toil for my bread, but it just so happens that I toil for a more reasonable amount of time than the 40 hours most unfortunates must do.

[krazen1211]

Krazen lives in NJ, I think?

Yep. We are exhibit A of union abuse, or maybe exhibit B after New York.. Wisconsin, to their credit, was not quite near as bad.

[krazen1211]

Oh. I thought Wisconsin, since he seems so informed on the doings there on this issue.

Information is freely available on the internet. It merely takes someone willing to go read it.

[Brittain33]

NJ is also an example of the Baumol effect:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease

Here's a good summary of the impact of the trap:

http://yglesias.thinkprogress.org/2011/02/schools-and-the-baumol-effect/

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The problem is that as our society gets wealthier as a result of technological change and improvements in productivity, labor-intensive occupations that do not have opportunities for new efficiencies will lose out relative to others unless pay is raised or society decides to employ fewer people doing the job, or worse-trained people. NJ is a state with a high cost of living and good opportunities for people with college degrees. Consequently, teacher pay will get higher over time, which means fewer teachers or higher taxes, or a serious degradation in the quality of people becoming teachers. That is not the full story of costs, far from it, but it is part of the reason pay has increased, as you've cited.

This is also why Downton Abbey is set in the 1910s and not today. Baumol's cost disease killed off skilled servant labor for all but the wealthiest people along with technical change. But who's going to replace teachers the way that valets have proven dispensable?

It would seem your argument is that class size should steadily increase over time. (Many of the new staff that have lowered teacher:pupil ratio have gone into special needs one-on-one; as angus cited, regular and advanced students have worse options than ever.)

Anyway, we can't discuss teacher pay without discussing this dilemma.

[Brittain33]

If the state senate had the votes to abolish collective bargaining now, they could "go nuclear" and do it. They have no reason not to strip that out from the fiscal bill and pass it with their reduced quorum. Many people feared Walker would do it.

But the fact that they haven't and the GOP leader in the State Senate said he would not move on this until the Dems returned is a tell that they haven't got the votes within their caucus to do so.

[Franzl]

If the state senate had the votes to abolish collective bargaining now, they could "go nuclear" and do it. They have no reason not to strip that out from the fiscal bill and pass it with their reduced quorum. Many people feared Walker would do it.

But the fact that they haven't and the GOP leader in the State Senate said he would not move on this until the Dems returned is a tell that they haven't got the votes within their caucus to do so.

Alternatively, though....if there isn't a majority in favor of the bill, why are Democrats having a problem showing up? If there aren't enough votes to pass, there would be no reason to stay in Illinois.

[Landslide Lyndon]

If the state senate had the votes to abolish collective bargaining now, they could "go nuclear" and do it. They have no reason not to strip that out from the fiscal bill and pass it with their reduced quorum. Many people feared Walker would do it.

But the fact that they haven't and the GOP leader in the State Senate said he would not move on this until the Dems returned is a tell that they haven't got the votes within their caucus to do so.

Alternatively, though....if there isn't a majority in favor of the bill, why are Democrats having a problem showing up? If there aren't enough votes to pass, there would be no reason to stay in Illinois.

Because Walker is refusing to compromise?
Seriously, the guy rejected his own party leader's proposal. Obviously he sees himself as some kind of conservative hero and accepting any kind of compromise will undercut that image.

[krazen1211]

NJ is also an example of the Baumol effect:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease

Here's a good summary of the impact of the trap:

http://yglesias.thinkprogress.org/2011/02/schools-and-the-baumol-effect/

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The problem is that as our society gets wealthier as a result of technological change and improvements in productivity, labor-intensive occupations that do not have opportunities for new efficiencies will lose out relative to others unless pay is raised or society decides to employ fewer people doing the job, or worse-trained people. NJ is a state with a high cost of living and good opportunities for people with college degrees. Consequently, teacher pay will get higher over time, which means fewer teachers or higher taxes, or a serious degradation in the quality of people becoming teachers. That is not the full story of costs, far from it, but it is part of the reason pay has increased, as you've cited.

This is also why Downton Abbey is set in the 1910s and not today. Baumol's cost disease killed off skilled servant labor for all but the wealthiest people along with technical change. But who's going to replace teachers the way that valets have proven dispensable?

It would seem your argument is that class size should steadily increase over time. (Many of the new staff that have lowered teacher:pupil ratio have gone into special needs one-on-one; as angus cited, regular and advanced students have worse options than ever.)

Anyway, we can't discuss teacher pay without discussing this dilemma.

This is a good post and it requires a more clever solution. There is, however, an answer, or at least something in the direction of an answer.


http://www.newjerseynewsroom.com/state/nj-turns-to-rosetta-stone-over-language-teachers


Touted as the No. 1 computer program of its kind on the Rosetta Stone Web site, the software "uses rich visual imagery to help students learn and think in a new language."

And it has amounted (and will likely amount) to thousands in cost savings for the following schools:

Ridgewood saved just under $200,000 by ridding of three teaching positions.
Manalapan-Englishtown Regional is expected to save about $140,000 by ridding of five teaching positions.
Randolph is due to save about $90,000 by using the program.

[Franzl]

Because Walker is refusing to compromise?
Seriously, the guy rejected his own party leader's proposal. Obviously he sees himself as some kind of conservative hero and accepting any kind of compromise will undercut that image.

You misunderstand me.

Brittain was saying that the fact that Republicans aren't using "the nuclear option" means that they don't have the necessary majority to pass the bill.

I'm asking why the Democrats need to flee Wisconsin if the Republicans do not have enough votes. It seems like the only reason to be in Illinois is to prevent a 60% quorum being present....but that only seems logical if they know 50%+ support passing the bill.