Canada 2011 Official Thread

[cinyc]

I am going to go out and make a prediction, that the Tories will massively outperform polls on Monday.

Why? The NDP is peaking several days too soon. The narrative at the end of this week will shift from Jack Layton as leader of the opposition to Jack Layton as a potential PM, and despite what some NDP supporters may think, that is a prospect that terrifies 60% of Canadians. When Newspapers start to run with it later this week, you are going to see two things:

1. Centrist Liberal voters voting strategically for the Tories
2. Soft-NDP supporters deserting as they learn more about the platform, and read the slew of stories about lunatic NDP paper candidates that are going to dominate media coverage for the rest of the week.

This is what happened to the Liberal Democrats to an extent, but here it will be far worse. NDP government has a disastrous record in the key swing areas(BC, Ontario), and a large portion of the likely NDP MPs are paper candidates, separatists, crazies, or all three.

People may be ready for an NDP opposition. They clearly are ready to dump the Liberals. But I doubt they really want an NDP government, and if polls in the next few days show them close to the Tories, its the worst thing that could happen to the NDP.

It's starting:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/ndp-candidate-takes-mid-campaign-vacation-in-vegas/article1999879/

[Verily]

I am going to go out and make a prediction, that the Tories will massively outperform polls on Monday.

Why? The NDP is peaking several days too soon. The narrative at the end of this week will shift from Jack Layton as leader of the opposition to Jack Layton as a potential PM, and despite what some NDP supporters may think, that is a prospect that terrifies 60% of Canadians. When Newspapers start to run with it later this week, you are going to see two things:

1. Centrist Liberal voters voting strategically for the Tories
2. Soft-NDP supporters deserting as they learn more about the platform, and read the slew of stories about lunatic NDP paper candidates that are going to dominate media coverage for the rest of the week.

This is what happened to the Liberal Democrats to an extent, but here it will be far worse. NDP government has a disastrous record in the key swing areas(BC, Ontario), and a large portion of the likely NDP MPs are paper candidates, separatists, crazies, or all three.

People may be ready for an NDP opposition. They clearly are ready to dump the Liberals. But I doubt they really want an NDP government, and if polls in the next few days show them close to the Tories, its the worst thing that could happen to the NDP.

It's starting:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/ndp-candidate-takes-mid-campaign-vacation-in-vegas/article1999879/

That's been in the news for a week with little discernable impact.

Plus, the Globe and Mail is a bit of an establishment hack paper. It bashing the NDP is nothing new.

[Marokai Backbeat]

Yeah, I'm pretty sure I saw that story several days ago. It clearly hasn't had any noticeable impact, if it will have any at all.

[cinyc]

Yeah, I'm pretty sure I saw that story several days ago. It clearly hasn't had any noticeable impact, if it will have any at all.

Several days ago?  It was first published Tuesday night. 

Many NDP candidates have not been scrutinized because the talking heads and partisan pundits thought they had no shot of winning.  Now that they do, they will be.  And the dirt will come out, as it had on Liberal and Conservative candidates earlier in the campaign.

[MaxQue]

cinyc, it was published by the Globe and Mail on Tuesday, but it was in other neswpapers during the weekend, if not before.

And people aren't dumb. They know than paper candidates exists and even vote for them.
See ADQ in 2007. People are voting for Layton and NDP, not the random local candidate.

NDP in Quebec has a true problem, it is than some candidates in Quebec doesn't speak French.
It is not a problem. It already happened with PC in 1984, and the person just learned the language.

[Holmes]

*shrug* I dunno what's the big deal about filler candidates that were probably picked when the NDP was on track to lose seats in ridings they don't have a chance of winning, even if they perform very well in Quebec. It's not like a party such as the NDP has the clout to get star candidates in every riding, and I'm sure the Liberals and Conservatives have a lot of joke candidates all over too. Just as I'm sure a lot of congressional Republican nominees in cities like New York or LA are non-committal, too, for example.

[Hash]

My Tory friend is in NDP-mass-panic mode and doesn't find the Liberals as evil as before.

[bullmoose88]

My Tory friend is in NDP-mass-panic mode and doesn't find the Liberals as evil as before.

Save the fact he wore a Habs jersey for votes, Layton seems like a good, competent leader...unlike the others.  It won't be soooo bad.  If at all.

[Lief 🗽]

Does it really matter if there are a couple incompetents/crazies in the NDP caucus? If it ends up being 80 or 90 MPs, it's not like they're going to be in positions of power. And in Westminster systems everyone just does what the party leader tells them to do anyway.

[Хahar 🤔]

Wait, I know it's not a federal question, but how can BC have a premier that's not even an MPP? That's possible?

She's running in a byelection on May 11 in Campbell's seat.

General election, but yeah.

My Tory friend is in NDP-mass-panic mode and doesn't find the Liberals as evil as before.

Save the fact he wore a Habs jersey for votes, Layton seems like a good, competent leader...unlike the others.  It won't be soooo bad.  If at all.

It doesn't bother me all that much that he did that, considering that he's from Montreal. If the Maroons were still around, he'd presumably be a fan of that team, but they're not.

[Lief 🗽]

Some Quebec riding polls, I don't if people have seen them yet.



Unfortunately four of them are from before the NDP surge really began.

[Hash]

Haute-Gaspesie-La Mitis-Matane-Matapedia was a very close BQ-Liberal quasi-tie in 2008 because of a Liberal star candidate (who's running again) and an archaic BQ incumbent who has since retired. If the poll is accurate, it seems as if it was close in 2008 only because the incumbent wasn't popular. It isn't the traditional Liberal area of Gaspesie, so it makes sense. Low NDP is fishy, though.

[MaxQue]

Haute-Gaspesie-La Mitis-Matane-Matapedia was a very close BQ-Liberal quasi-tie in 2008 because of a Liberal star candidate (who's running again) and an archaic BQ incumbent who has since retired. If the poll is accurate, it seems as if it was close in 2008 only because the incumbent wasn't popular. It isn't the traditional Liberal area of Gaspesie, so it makes sense. Low NDP is fishy, though.

Poll was done between April 6 and April 13.

[2952-0-0]

I think he made that very very clear in 2008. He'll prorogue parliament, indefinitely if need be.

I'm not very sure he can do that. In 2008 Harper had the excuse that he had just passed a throne speech and therefore had confidence in the first place. Now he will never have passed anything and could not claim to hold any confidence from the house. In 2008 Harper could plausibly claim the coalition was dependent on the Bloc and therefore was harmful to the country, Now that clearly is not the case. In 2008 Harper increased his minority and could plausibly claim he had a mandate. Now he has clearly lost seats and could not claim so.

Finally, questions about his leadership will arise within the party, which has given him four chances to lead them to a majority. Nasty infighting will undoubtedly erupt and Harper will have to fight two wars at once. And given how public opinion has changed since 2008, I doubt he can do that without decimating his party.

[Hatman 🍁]

Hmm... didn't realize these were old riding polls (except for Hull). Again, I'd like to see some 514/450 polls!

[DL]

Harris Decima phone poll April 20-27

CPC - 35%
NDP - 30%
Libs - 22%

Identical to Angus Reid at the national level and HD also has the NDP 20 points ahead of the BQ in Quebec!

Regarding the NDP having some NOB (name on the ballot) candidates in Quebec. Its not as if the other parties don't also have some dim bulbs running in unwinnable seats - the Liberals have a white supremacist who calls First Nation people "featherheads" running for them in Quebec. The Tories are even worse - they have elected MPs who are total crackpots - like Cheryl Gallant who is Canada's answer to Sharron Angle and few racist homophobes from the Prairies!

[Lief 🗽]

Hmm... didn't realize these were old riding polls (except for Hull). Again, I'd like to see some 514/450 polls!

Yeah, all but the Hull poll are from when the NDP was still below 20% in Quebec. Which is probably good news for the NDP in the two Tory seats.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Tories just came to my door. Some old guy just gave me a pamphlet and left. Epic fail. Where's the engagement?

Actually, what's the point... the Tories will do very badly in this apartment complex, it's very poor.

On second thought, he probably smelled cat pee and didn't want to bother. lol

[Hatman 🍁]

Actually, the Tories finished second in my poll last time:

NDP: 87
Cons: 46
Libs: 33
Greens: 17
Others: 4

Turnout was 44%. W00t. No long lineups!

'06 results
NDP: 104
Liberals: 65
Cons: 42
Greens: 18
Others: 3

Turnout: 45%

'04 results
NDP: 106
Liberals: 48
Tories: 28
Greens: 22
Others: 8

Turnout: 44%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Rumours of a riding poll in Trois Rivières showing an NDP lead.

[Foucaulf]

Worth a read: http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/981471--hebert-a-liberal-campaign-of-self-destruction?bn=1

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This is a crucial quote. Precedent has established that the Liberals and the Conservatives were the only two parties with cross-country appeal throughout Canadian history. The CCF -> NDP chronology, until now, has been a Western movement drifting into Ontario; so were the Progressives. Reform and Bloc are painfully regionalist, while Social Credit leaped from Alberta into Quebec. What happens if the NDP takes over the Liberals as that cross-country party? The Liberals would be fenced in Vancouver and Toronto, and become a third party. Liberalism will never be seen as a cross-country ideology again, and the Liberals will be forever seen working for Toronto's interests.

Nothing in the culture of the federal Liberals has prepared them for life as a third party because that would mean the death of today's federal Liberals. As the Liberals move from uniter to sectarian, the internal political system of the Liberals must change completely. Perhaps the election was supposed to do that, but all it did was accelerate the Liberal decline. The party just has to deal.

[2952-0-0]

All the more reason for electoral reform of some sort. Without it we will be reduced to a vanilla left-right two-party system, which simply does not account for the unique conditions of Canada.

[Hatman 🍁]

Rumours of a riding poll in Trois Rivières showing an NDP lead.

Sources please.

[Foucaulf]

Rumours of a riding poll in Trois Rivières showing an NDP lead.

Sources please.

NDP candidate Robert Aubin has a 14-point lead over the BQ incumbent...

Cible-Recherche seems like a local outfit. MoE is +/- 4.3%.

This represents a swing of 33% to the NDP and 17% away from the Bloc! Then again, you would expect swings from a riding where half the electorate don't know their MP's name.

[Hatman 🍁]

Hmm. I don't think anyone saw T-R as a possible pick up. Ok, so what does this mean?