Canada 2011 Official Thread

[MaxQue]

Hmm. I don't think anyone saw T-R as a possible pick up. Ok, so what does this mean?

More than 10 MPs for NDP in Quebec and trouble for Duceppe?

[Hatman 🍁]

Ooh, Berthier-Maskinonge is coming up too. That's the riding where the NDP candidate is on vacation to Las Vegas.  And works at my alma mater's pub (in OTTAWA).

[Verily]

Hmm. I don't think anyone saw T-R as a possible pick up. Ok, so what does this mean?

It always (as in, since the NDP started polling 1st in Quebec) seemed more likely to me than one of the more rural ridings in eastern Quebec. Similar for Drummond, Sherbrooke, Jonquiere-Alma, etc. Where the Bloc holds on will be the most rural places (save the far north, of course).

[Linus Van Pelt]

Applying the "if it weren't in Quebec" test, Saint-Maurice-Champlain should also be a target.

[Holmes]

According to the poll, even though 51% of respondents in Trois-Rivières don't know their MP, she is currently the most known candidate at 47%. 42% couldn't name any candidate, 28% named the Conservative, and 24% named the NDP candidate. So being in the 40's when only a quarter of the riding knows your name isn't bad. 75% of voters have also locked in their vote. And only Layton's popularity increased, by a net of 59%. Harper seems to be hit the most (- 38%), but Duceppe and Ignatieff aren't in a better position.

And yeah, the Berthier-Maskinonge results will be available tomorrow at 12:25 pm. If it's the same there and 75% of people can't name the NDP candidate, maybe her incompetence won't be reflected in her numbers. Of course, having her elected would be a disaster.

[Verily]

I don't know, it doesn't seem like her fault. When she planned her vacation, she had no way of knowing there would even be an election campaign on at the same time. When she left on her vacation, it still looked like she was a paper candidate with no real chance of being elected. It seems a bit rich to demand a person of average means to pay $1000 for a last-minute ticket from Las Vegas back to Montreal just so she can show her face a few times. It also seems extremely absurd to demand that she have cancelled her likely very expensive vacation at the last minute to campaign when she could not reasonably have anticipated being more than a paper candidate.

Meh. Maybe she is incompetent. But this non-scandal doesn't show it.

[Hatman 🍁]

After seeing these numbers, I would be coming home immediately and doing some canvassing if I were her.

I don't know anything about her, but I assume she wouldn't be terrible.  I mean, she's a single mother. It's like Jack said, his candidates reflect the Canadian public.

[Holmes]

I know it's a non-scandal, and I don't think she's a bad person, but I kinda get the feeling she doesn't wanna be an MP? At least for that riding anyway... doesn't speak French and works in Ottawa, doesn't seem like much of a desire to me. And if she somehow is elected, making a jump from bartender to MP would be a big change.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

In all seriousness, we are looking at between 25, and 50 NDP seats in Quebec.

[Hatman 🍁]

I heard rumours of a candidate not speaking French. Is it her? I also heard that those rumours were lies and that infact the candidate is bilingual.

[MaxQue]

I heard rumours of a candidate not speaking French. Is it her? I also heard that those rumours were lies and that infact the candidate is bilingual.

A local radio who called said her French was too bad to be broadcasted.

[2952-0-0]

Looks like some people will be going to cram schools over the next month.

[Hatman 🍁]

I heard rumours of a candidate not speaking French. Is it her? I also heard that those rumours were lies and that infact the candidate is bilingual.

A local radio who called said her French was too bad to be broadcasted.

*sigh*

Well, if she does end up leading in this poll, I predict it wont last.

[Holmes]

You seem to have high hopes for her.

[Hatman 🍁]

Anyways...

Interestingly, Hull-Aylmer and its predecessors have not voted for a non Liberal in 120 years. The last Tory to win there was Alonzo Wright, the "king of Gatineau".

[DL]

I'm not that surprised about Trois-Rivieres. If it was in any other province it would a classic NDP seat to begin with. Its a very working class small city - not unlike ridings like Welland or Hamilton. The NDP candidate there Robert Aubin i actually one of the most impressive ones - he is a professor of music at a seminary and is a well-known local figure in the music and arts sub-culture.  It should be noted that Trois-Rivieres has always been considered a bellwether riding in Quebec. Whatever party wins there tends to carry the province!

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm starting to get worried about the media hitting the party. I suspect we'll see a modest decline in the polls for the NDP over the next couple of days. The question is, to who will it go?

[Meeker]

The wedding is going to consume media coverage tomorrow and then it's the weekend... bit late for a media attack to do much of anything.

[MaxQue]

The wedding is going to consume media coverage tomorrow and then it's the weekend... bit late for a media attack to do much of anything.

If true, the NDP should thank a monarchy than a big (?) part of the their voters dislike?

[Marokai Backbeat]

Also, the NDP isn't really taking any abuse without having anything to counter it with. Their ads have been great, I think.

[bullmoose88]

So, supposing the Tories come out of this election with another minority government (reduced or not)...which also supposes no NDP-Liberal coalition...

How long does this government last?  I mean...wouldn't the liberals be hesitant to give the NDP another opportunity so soon to cement themselves as the natural tory alternative?

[Dan the Roman]

So, supposing the Tories come out of this election with another minority government (reduced or not)...which also supposes no NDP-Liberal coalition...

How long does this government last?  I mean...wouldn't the liberals be hesitant to give the NDP another opportunity so soon to cement themselves as the natural tory alternative?

Best case for the Tories is that the NDP/Bloc/Liberals vote down the throne speech, despite the Tories being the largest party, and form an NDP minority. Layton will have to scrape the floor to come up with Ministers, especially if the Liberals decline to participate, the markets will panic, and scandals and gaffes will plague the government for its likely sub-18 month tenure. Then everyone goes back to the polls and its Tory majority.

[Foucaulf]

Best case for the Tories is that the NDP/Bloc/Liberals vote down the throne speech, despite the Tories being the largest party, and form an NDP minority.

As much as I support the NDP, there will be no "NDP minority". The seats will be split too evenly between the Liberals and the NDP that it will have to be a coalition of the NDP and the Liberals with confidence and supply from the Bloc. Ideally the NDP + Liberals will have more seats than the Conservatives, but failing that the NDP + Liberals popular vote will definitely be greater than the Conservative one.

If the budget is defeated, the GG will seek out the leader of the opposition since he would command the second highest number of seats. Which brings me to my next point...

Layton will have to scrape the floor to come up with Ministers, especially if the Liberals decline to participate, the markets will panic, and scandals and gaffes will plague the government for its likely sub-18 month tenure.

You're assuming that Layton is going to wait until the Throne Speech to form negotiations. Problem is that he already has a Shadow Cabinet, like the Liberals. If Ignatieff is going out the door, Layton could offer the Liberals power in the form of a major cabinet position. Surely the party will take it to avoid collapse in the wilderness.

If the markets haven't panicked yet over Belgium being without a government for over a year, surely it won't happen with a diluted administration. If the G-20, KAIROS and patronage problems did not kill the Conservatives, it would not do so for a NDP-involved government.

Then everyone goes back to the polls and its Tory majority.

Harper letting Layton take power will be a major screwup, and the caucus will be planning for a leadership convention. Even if the government lasts 18 months, we will see changes in leadership for the Liberals, Conservatives and the Bloc, followed by Layton's handling over the reins. The election after that would be a whole new ballgame.

[minionofmidas]

Applying the "if it weren't in Quebec" test, Saint-Maurice-Champlain should also be a target.

Forget these kinds of tests. What we're looking at by now is: Any seat in Québec, except for those where voters are accustomed to choosing tactically between Bloc and Liberals, or between Bloc and Conservatives based on the last two elections, or where the Bloc or Liberal incumbent is personally popular or the NDP candidate is an obvious dud, is likely to go NDP at this point. It is possible that this actually does not apply to Anglo Montréal, in which case it's even truer of the remainder of the province.
The NDP will be the largest party in Québec in terms of seats; whether it will win over half of them remains questionable.

There. I've put myself on the line. Though Nick said it before me.

Foucaulf, Dan might be a bit of an anti-NDP hack, but he did describe that scenario as a Tories' best case. As such, it seems perfectly reasonable.

[minionofmidas]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

A bit value-impacted by the lack of a question as to whether it's a positive opinion in absolute terms.