Canada 2011 Official Thread

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Would anyone care to fill me in on why the NDP is doing so well in Quebec?

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Layton

[Marokai Backbeat]

Layton

That, the heaviest advertising campaign in the NDP's history I believe, Mulcair, and Bloc fatigue.

[minionofmidas]

And it's not as if, elephants in the room aside, much of Quebec wasn't natural social democratic territory.

[Holmes]

Today's Nanos.

Conservative - 36.4 (-0.2)     
NDP - 31.2 (+0.8)    
Liberal - 22.0 (+0.1)    
BQ - 5.7 (-0.3)    
Green - 4.0 (-0.1)

http://www.nanosresearch.com/election2011/20110428-BallotE.pdf

With the royal wedding, and then the weekend, there's probably not going to much much change.

(fwiw, Nanos shows Tories down to 36% in Ontario, although I wouldn't read too much into it, they have Liberals winning the Atlantic by 6%, small subsamples etc etc. There seem to be massive swings in every province/region every day and big MoE's anyway.)

I wish there'd be a poll of BC before election day though, seems like it might be tightening according to Nanos, but small sample. Also seems the Tories are recovering in the Prairies, I wonder if that'll affect gains in Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

[Hatman 🍁]

And that, is where the NDP will peak.

[minionofmidas]

Somebody ought to do a trendline to show how long the campaign would theoretically need to be until the NDP overtakes the Tories.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And it's not as if, elephants in the room aside, much of Quebec wasn't natural social democratic territory.

Which has been a big part of the PQ's appeal provincially (especially in its first few decades) and to the BQ federally.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Also seems the Tories are recovering in the Prairies, I wonder if that'll affect gains in Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

It looks as though a good Tory sample just rolled on; the problems with Prairies breakdowns are so massive that there's little point in saying what they are. Though 22% in all three would still represent a significant increase on 2008. I wish some proper polls were done of Saskatchewan and Manitoba though; right now it's impossible to work out what's actually going on there.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Speculation on possible NDP pick-up's from a newspaper that doesn't much like them.

Linked to here because it mostly seems to be based on academic commentators that the journalist who wrote the piece up has talked to emailed.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

More CROP riding (har, har) polls from Quebec.

Though, again, we do have to remember that the record of constituency polling is what it is...

[Hash]

Verner losing is unlikely, but seeing her go would be glorious. I'm sure Harpo probably hates her after what she did in 2008.

[Meeker]

More CROP riding (har, har) polls from Quebec.

Though, again, we do have to remember that the record of constituency polling is what it is...

Could someone put those in English for us francophobes?

[Holmes]

For those that can't read French, Conservative and NDP tied at 37% in Louis-Saint-Laurent, Bloc at 17%, Liberal at 8%.

In Beauport-Limoilou, NDP at 36%, Bloc at 30%, Conservative at 27%.

In Charlesbourg-Haute-Saint-Charles, 35% for NDP, 31% for Conservative, 22% for Bloc.

In Quebec, 34% for NDP and Bloc, others have less than 15% (not too clear).

Louis-Hébert is 32% NDP, 30% Bloc.

In Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier, NDP at 31%, Arthur at 29% and Bloc at 28%.

In Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean, Conservatives at 34%, NDP at 32%, Bloc at 25%.

Conservatives ahead at 47% in Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean, NDP at 27%.

And in Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, Bloc at 43%, NDP at 27%, Conservative at 18%.

[Hash]

More CROP riding (har, har) polls from Quebec.

Though, again, we do have to remember that the record of constituency polling is what it is...

Could someone put those in English for us francophobes?

Basically:

high profile Tory idiot Josée Verner is tied 37-37 with the NDP in Louis-Saint-Laurent
incumbent Tory down 36-27 to NDP in Beauport-Limoilou with the Bloc seemingly on 30%
incumbent Tory down 35-31 to NDP in Charlesbourg-Haute-Saint-Charles
Bloc incumbent tied 34-34 with NDP in Québec
Bloc incumbent down 2 pts in Louis-Hébert
Union Nationale-like like idiot independent André Arthur down 31-29 to NDP in Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier with Bloc on 28%
Tory cabinet minister JP Blackburn up 2 (34-32) on the NDP in Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean
Tory incumbent up 47-27 in Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean
Bloc incumbent up 43-27 in Chicoutimi-Le Fjord

[minionofmidas]

Arthur losing to the NDP? Oh how sweet would it be.

[Meeker]

Is this significant at all? http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/story/2011/04/29/bloc-quebecois-members-support-ndp.html

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Obviously most historical precedents raised anywhere and everywhere have been pessimistic ones; surges from miles behind that ended in despair, social democratic contenders for government peaking too soon and losing by large margins, and so on. The main exception being the occasional reminder of Ontario 1990; the too-good-to-be-true scenario, perhaps. For a precedent of the cautiously optimistic kind, how about Britain in 1922? In 1918 Labour won 57 seats; fourth place behind the Coalition Tories on 332, the Coalition Liberals on 127 and Sinn Fein on 73 (who didn't take their seats, etc, etc). In 1922, Labour came a clear second with 142 seats and have been a serious contender for government ever since.

[Dan the Roman]

Today's Nanos.

Conservative - 36.4 (-0.2)     
NDP - 31.2 (+0.    
Liberal - 22.0 (+0.1)    
BQ - 5.7 (-0.3)    
Green - 4.0 (-0.1)

http://www.nanosresearch.com/election2011/20110428-BallotE.pdf

With the royal wedding, and then the weekend, there's probably not going to much much change.

(fwiw, Nanos shows Tories down to 36% in Ontario, although I wouldn't read too much into it, they have Liberals winning the Atlantic by 6%, small subsamples etc etc. There seem to be massive swings in every province/region every day and big MoE's anyway.)

I wish there'd be a poll of BC before election day though, seems like it might be tightening according to Nanos, but small sample. Also seems the Tories are recovering in the Prairies, I wonder if that'll affect gains in Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

Worth noting that the CPC was at 48% two days ago, 41% yesterday, and 36% today. That indicates a very very poor CPC sample on Tuesday, probably similar to the Harris Decima one, a better one(but still probably below 40% on Wednesday, and a better one on Thursday, due to Monday's very positive(51%+) sample falling off.

And I apologize for anti-NDP sentiment. Just not a big fan of fads. While I would enjoy them doing well, the prospect of them winning is quite terrifying.

[minionofmidas]

You don't have to apologize for your hideous views, this is a nonpartisan politics forum.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think a prediction contest might be especially 'fun' this year...

[ObserverIE]

Berthier-Maskinongé (ciblerecherche.com/fichiers/File/Sondage-Cible-recherche_TVA_Election_fed_complet.pdf):

André, Guy / Bloc Québécois 36%
Brosseau, Ruth Ellen / Nouveau Parti démocratique 29%
Gaudet, Francine / Parti libéral du Canada 17%
Godue, Marie-Claude / Parti conservateur du Canada 15%
Jubinville, Martin / Parti Rhinocéros 1%
Matteau, Léonie / Le Parti Vert du Canada 2%

The non-French-speaking barmaid who's on holiday in Vegas isn't winning. At least not yet...

[Holmes]

Oh, that's kinda sad, but entertaining.

51% can't name any candidate, 35% can name the Bloc candidate, 31% can name the Liberal candidate and... only 10% can name the NDP candidate. Also, 79% of voters are locked on the NDP, whereas 64% are locked with the Bloc (second lowest).

Ignatieff's favorabilities actually hardly moved at all here, with a net of -4%. Layton is up +59% here as well. Duceppe at -27%, Harper at -39%.

[Verily]

EKOS also has a new poll today.

CON: 34.5 (-0.3)
NDP: 29.7 (+2.2)
LIB: 20.0 (-2.3)
GRN: 6.9 (+0.1)
BQ: 6.3 (+0.2)

Not much of real interest. They do have the Liberals in third everywhere except Ontario (where they lead the NDP only 26.6-26.2, with the Conservatives at 38.9) and Quebec (where they are in fourth with 13.0, behind the NDP at 39.6, the Bloc at 26.2 and the Conservatives at 13.6). The Liberals are barely ahead of the Greens in British Columbia.

http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full_report_april_29_2011.pdf

[minionofmidas]

The non-French-speaking barmaid who's on holiday in Vegas isn't winning.

Shame really. More waitresses in parliament would be a good thing indeed.