Canada 2011 Official Thread

[Holmes]

He's going to campaign hard on the "coalition" and spread his lies about how coalitions are evil illegal things. What a pathological liar.

People will eat it up. They do up in northern Ontario, and though everyone hates Harper there, they believe his verbal diarrhea.

[Holmes]

It amuses me how much of an impact people think the gun registry issue will have in northern Ontario. It'll probably be a bigger issue in the rural areas of Ontario that already are held by Conservatives, so whatever.

Also. I've been seeing more ads on TV. I like the NDP ads, although they have creepy animation. And is it just the ones I've seen, or are the Conservative ads the only ones without Harper talking to the camera? They just show the same clip of him talking to a group of people.

[Holmes]

If the Conservatives make gains in the Toronto suburbs and are mostly unaffected by the NDP surge in Quebec... that would suck.

Can the NDP gain seats in Nova Scotia? They had a great year there in 2009.

[Holmes]

It's not a terrible electoral system, it's the mindset of Canadians that it's either Liberals or Conservatives, and that's it. If the NDP makes big gains in this election at the cost of a Conservative majority, but they start to become a more viable option, then that's a net plus imo. I mean, Harper already does what he wants already anyway, even in the minority.

[Holmes]

I'm sure you're all aware, but Timmins-James Bay should be rather boring. Turnout may be up, there were some lines in the early voting areas but not that much. There are a few pockets of houses in my neighbourhood that have Charlie Angus signs, then maybe one Liberal, then more NDP. It's kinda funny.

[Holmes]

Fricking southern Ontario. Should be more like northern Ontario. Then we wouldn't be having this Tory problem.

[Holmes]

This is amusing: http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canadavotes2011/story/2011/04/25/cv-election-harper-dossier.html

Someone is gonna get fired?

[Holmes]

Does anyone think the NDP has a shot at Oshawa? Always seems to be a squeaker with the incumbent, if some of the (decaying) Liberal vote there went to the NDP candidate... maybe?

[Holmes]

These are areas the NDP wont make many gains (though Mulcair claimed some pickups in the Saguenay, I see only one). I am more interested in ridings in the Montreal area. Let's see some riding polls from the 514 and the 450.

It's still a pretty big improvement from 2008, although anything better than 4% or 5% is a "big improvement". Still, it looks like the NDP isn't just sucking up support from the Bloc and the Liberals, the Conservatives seem to have taken a hit too, compared to 2008 anyway.

[Holmes]

Maybe the gains in Ontario are enough to hold on to Sault-Ste-Marie, and pick up a seat or two in Toronto, but I don't see much room for growth elsewhere. Southern Ontario sans Toronto is pretty solidly Conservative and I imagine people still have a bad taste in their mouth from Bob Rae. Maybe if they surpass the Liberals, they might have a shot at Kenora?

[Holmes]

Ignatieff has seemed to underperform his Liberal predecessors and has never touched 50%, but I don't see any reason why he would be in trouble... Ford seems to have won his riding though, fwiw. I'm not in Toronto anymore so I can't go check things out myself.

Teddy, you really seem to think Duceppe will be unseated? I'd eat my hat... well, maybe something more edible but comparable due to how things have been heading in the past couple of days.

[Holmes]

I live in York West during the school year... Liberals will win with 50%+.

[Holmes]

Are Liberals really considering Bob Rae to replace Ignatieff? They've already shot both their feet, what's left...

[Holmes]

As for the news channels (CTV, CBC) and local media, I haven't seen them talk about Layton being PM much. Local media doesn't follow the election that much, but our local race will be a blowout anyway, so they mostly talk about national stuff a bit. But as for CTV and CBC, I've literally seen them (mostly CTV) air 10+ minute segments about Layton and the NDP, then show short clips of the other parties.

I think he made that very very clear in 2008. He'll prorogue parliament, indefinitely if need be.

And a lot of Canadians will see him as a "do no wrong" Prime Minister.

[Holmes]

Wait, I know it's not a federal question, but how can BC have a premier that's not even an MPP? That's possible?

[Holmes]

*shrug* I dunno what's the big deal about filler candidates that were probably picked when the NDP was on track to lose seats in ridings they don't have a chance of winning, even if they perform very well in Quebec. It's not like a party such as the NDP has the clout to get star candidates in every riding, and I'm sure the Liberals and Conservatives have a lot of joke candidates all over too. Just as I'm sure a lot of congressional Republican nominees in cities like New York or LA are non-committal, too, for example.

[Holmes]

According to the poll, even though 51% of respondents in Trois-Rivières don't know their MP, she is currently the most known candidate at 47%. 42% couldn't name any candidate, 28% named the Conservative, and 24% named the NDP candidate. So being in the 40's when only a quarter of the riding knows your name isn't bad. 75% of voters have also locked in their vote. And only Layton's popularity increased, by a net of 59%. Harper seems to be hit the most (- 38%), but Duceppe and Ignatieff aren't in a better position.

And yeah, the Berthier-Maskinonge results will be available tomorrow at 12:25 pm. If it's the same there and 75% of people can't name the NDP candidate, maybe her incompetence won't be reflected in her numbers. Of course, having her elected would be a disaster.

[Holmes]

I know it's a non-scandal, and I don't think she's a bad person, but I kinda get the feeling she doesn't wanna be an MP? At least for that riding anyway... doesn't speak French and works in Ottawa, doesn't seem like much of a desire to me. And if she somehow is elected, making a jump from bartender to MP would be a big change.

[Holmes]

You seem to have high hopes for her.

[Holmes]

Today's Nanos.

Conservative - 36.4 (-0.2)     
NDP - 31.2 (+0.8)    
Liberal - 22.0 (+0.1)    
BQ - 5.7 (-0.3)    
Green - 4.0 (-0.1)

http://www.nanosresearch.com/election2011/20110428-BallotE.pdf

With the royal wedding, and then the weekend, there's probably not going to much much change.

(fwiw, Nanos shows Tories down to 36% in Ontario, although I wouldn't read too much into it, they have Liberals winning the Atlantic by 6%, small subsamples etc etc. There seem to be massive swings in every province/region every day and big MoE's anyway.)

I wish there'd be a poll of BC before election day though, seems like it might be tightening according to Nanos, but small sample. Also seems the Tories are recovering in the Prairies, I wonder if that'll affect gains in Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

[Holmes]

For those that can't read French, Conservative and NDP tied at 37% in Louis-Saint-Laurent, Bloc at 17%, Liberal at 8%.

In Beauport-Limoilou, NDP at 36%, Bloc at 30%, Conservative at 27%.

In Charlesbourg-Haute-Saint-Charles, 35% for NDP, 31% for Conservative, 22% for Bloc.

In Quebec, 34% for NDP and Bloc, others have less than 15% (not too clear).

Louis-Hébert is 32% NDP, 30% Bloc.

In Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier, NDP at 31%, Arthur at 29% and Bloc at 28%.

In Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean, Conservatives at 34%, NDP at 32%, Bloc at 25%.

Conservatives ahead at 47% in Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean, NDP at 27%.

And in Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, Bloc at 43%, NDP at 27%, Conservative at 18%.

[Holmes]

Oh, that's kinda sad, but entertaining.

51% can't name any candidate, 35% can name the Bloc candidate, 31% can name the Liberal candidate and... only 10% can name the NDP candidate. Also, 79% of voters are locked on the NDP, whereas 64% are locked with the Bloc (second lowest).

Ignatieff's favorabilities actually hardly moved at all here, with a net of -4%. Layton is up +59% here as well. Duceppe at -27%, Harper at -39%.

[Holmes]

Attacks like these have been rare in Canadian elections compared to the US, I can't see it working... similar to how Aqua Buddha backfired in Kentucky, for example.

It is about time Canada got themselves a news channel that's not unabashedly leftist.

Ha. ok.

[Holmes]

Today's Nanos.

Conservative - 38.0 (+1.6)     
NDP - 29.6 (-1.6)    
Liberal - 23.3 (+1.3)    
BQ - 5.2 (-0.5)    
Green - 3.1 (-0.9)

*shrug* Little change in Ontario, BC, or Quebec (NDP -2%). Tories gain more in the Prairies, and a lot more in the Atlantic, where apparently the NDP is in third. Big MoE's, of course.

[Holmes]

The massage parlor attack started pretty late yesterday, I don't think it's reflected in the polling. Nanos is a three day tracker, and I believe Tuesday was a really good day for the NDP on Nanos. With that out of equation, NDP slightly loses a bit of points. What's more important is that if they can close the deal during the weekend and translate the numbers into seats.