Fair redistricting: Illinois

[jimrtex]

As a reminder, there are two UCCs in KY. The UCCs were created to recognize metro areas as community of interest and avoid fragmenting their population into adjacent rural areas.

The Louisville UCC consists of Jefferson, Bullitt, and Oldham; it is 1.21 times a CD so there should be two CDs covering the three counties and one CD entirely within to meet the UCC test.

The Covington UCC consists of Kenton, Boone, and Campbell; it is 0.51 of a CD and only needs one CD to cover it.

Huntington-Ashland doesn't get any respect.

[jimrtex]

I'm probably just going to send this directly to a ranked vote since there are only two maps

I'll likely have a map.

[jimrtex]

Kentucky has 15 Area Development Districts (ADD):



We can group them into congressional regions.

KY-1 (West): Purchase, Pennyrile, Green River (0.870)
KY-2 (Central): Barren River, Lincoln Trail, Lake Cumberland (1.052)
KY-6 (East): Buffalo Trace, Gateway, FIVCO, Big Sandy, Kentucky River, Cumberland Valley (1.065)
KY-3 (Louisville) KY-4 (Louisville, Cincinnati suburbs): KIPDA, Northern Kentucky (1.933)
KY-5 (Lexington)  Bluegrass (1.065)

The three metropolitan regions have a population equivalent to 2.998, while the three rural regions have a population equivalent to 3.002. We can balance the three rural regions by shifting counties to the west, largely maintaining the ADD regions. Greater importance was attached to population equality (without splitting counties), while largely maintaining regions, over erosity. Maintaining regions can be considered as measure of conciseness, as an alternate to compactness.

Since KY-5 (Lexington) is overpopulated, we shift that to KY-3, 4, and Franklin is the right size. Jefferson (1.025) is slightly large, and it will be divided.



KY-1 (West) 0.47%, R 20.79
KY-2 (Central) -0.18% R 23.48
KY-3 (Louisville) 0.04%*** D 4.8
KY-4 (Louisville, Cincinnati suburbs) 0.04%*** R 17.69
KY-5 (Lexington) -0.29% R 11.04
KY-6 (East) -0.08% R26.66

Standard Deviation 0.24%.

This assumes a perfect split of Jefferson. KY-3 and KY-4 will diverge a bit. Internet Exploder crashed as I did a save.

These maps show the division of Jefferson.





KY-1 (West) +0.47%; R 20.79; A 90, B 6, H 2, As 2
KY-2 (Central) -0.18%; R 23.48; A 90, B 5, H 2, As 1
KY-3 (Louisville) +0.04% D 5.67; A 73, B 19, H 4, As 2
KY-4 (Louisville, Cincinnati suburbs) +0.04% R 17.76; A 92, B 4, H 2, As 1
KY-5 (Lexington) -0.29%; R 11.04; A 86, B 8, H 4, As 2
KY-6 (East) -0.08%; R26.66; A 97, b 2, H 1

Standard deviation 0.24%

[jimrtex]

Sol's map wins for Kentucky!

Were the results published somewhere?

[jimrtex]

Sol's map wins for Kentucky!

Were the results published somewhere?

would you like me to make a spreadsheet of all the state votes?

Yes.

[jimrtex]

Indiana has 15 regional councils of government.



Unlike some states where the state government defines regions, these appear to be more voluntary (Indiana statute simply says counties can form the RCOG's). There is a large area in the central part of Indiana without ROCG's. I created three regions: (1) The seven counties south around Indianapolis, including 5 of the 6 counties in the UCC (The 6th, Madison(Anderson) is a single-county RCOG); (2) The three counties around Lafayette; and (3) five counties south of Indianapolis, including Monroe (Bloomington). In addition, Blackford was added to the region that largely surrounds it.

The regions were grouped into areas of approximately one district.



1. (Northwest, Gary) 1.071. Northwestern 1.071.
2. (North Central, South Bend, Elkhart) 1.021. Michiana 0.817, Kankakee-Iroquois 0.204.
3. (Northeast, Fort Wayne) 0.946. Northeastern 0.638, Region III 0.308.
4. (Central-North, Lafayette, Kokomo) 0.634. North Central 0.317, "Boilermaker" 0.317.
5-6. (Central, Indianapolis, Anderson) 2.485. "Naptown" 2.302, Madison 0.183.
7. (Eastern, Muncie, Richmond) 0.923. East Central 0.376, Eastern 0.200, Southeastern 0.347.
8. (South Central, Terre Haute, Bloomington) 0.946, West Central 0.316, Southern 0.222, "Southern Independents" 0.408.
9. (Ohio River, Evansville, Tell City, New Albany) 0.973, South West 0.415, Indiana 15 0.174, River Hills 0.384.

Kankakee-Iroquious was placed with Michiana mainly for population regions. Area 4 is undersized, with the intent that it be placed with Area 5-6 to create a third district that was about 1/2 in the Indianapolis area.

This is the final whole-county alignment.



IN-1 Northwest (Gary). -0.03% The three county region was too populous. Rather than splitting LaPorte, it was dropped, and three rural counties to the south were added. Newton and Jasper are part of the Chicago MSA, due to commuting into Gary, or possibly long distance into Chicago.

IN-2 North Central (South Bend, Elkhart) +0.46% After adding LaPorte it was possible to add Starke to get to close to the quota.

IN-3 Northeast (Fort Wayne) -0.25%. The two RCOGs were a bit short. Adding Miami hit the target.

I next worked on the Indianapolis UCC. I wanted two whole-county districts within the 6-county UCC, with ideally the remnant in a single district. Madison, Hamilton, Marion, and Johnson have a population about equivalent to two districts (2.012). But this would likely require a long corridor to connect Hamilton to Johnson OR division of Marion between two districts, In addition Hendricks and Hancock would be in different districts, are connected by a giant U south of Johnson. So instead, Hendricks replaced Johnson. This has a bit more population (2.020), but permits the link to Hendricks be along the Hamilton-Marion county line, and permits creation of another district wholly in Marion. Also the two surplus counties from the UCC, Hancock and Johnson can be placed in a single district along with another metro county of Shelby.

IN-5 (Northern Indianapolis suburbs, Anderson) +0.99%.

IN-6 (Indianapolis) +0.99%.

Placing the surplus UCC population on the east, required a reconfiguration of the district to the west and east.

IN-4 (West, Terre Haute, Lafayette, Kokomo) -0.33% This is an agglomeration of counties based on proximity. It includes most of the Wabash River once it enters the state.

IN-7 (East, Indianapolis eastern, southern suburbs, Columbus, Richmond) -0.28%. The smaller manufacturing centers are a reasonable match for the Indianapolis suburbs, which will constituted about 35% of the district.

The configuration of IN-4 and IN-7 resulted in a need to reconfigure the southern areas.

IN-8 (Southwest, Evansville, Tell City) +0.35% This includes 3 regions plus a few counties on the north. Elimination of the Ohio River district may reflect modern transportation and economic reality.

IN-9 (Southeast, Louisville Suburbs, Bloomington) -2.06% Bloomington doesn't really fit with its neighbors as a liberal arts university plunked down in a corn field it doesn't even have the agricultural interests that Purdue does.

[jimrtex]

This is my final map.





Marion County was divided across the three northern townships. In the east it dips down to include the city of Lawrence which is not part of the Unigov. In the NNW it is narrowed down a bit to avoid cutting into predominately black areas of Indianapolis (IN-6 is slightly more black than Marion as a whole).

Because the four-county area has a slight excess of population (2.020) a small portion of Marion County (southeast corner) is shifted to NC-7. NC-9 is slightly underpopulated in the whole county version (0.979). Four more rural townships in Johnson County, Blue River, Ninevah, Hensley, and Union are shifted. The small portion of Bargersville that is in Union Township is retained.

Townships in Indiana are relatively weak. They do not assume the roles of cities, and many of their former functions have been transferred to county governments. On the other hand they exist in areas where there are city governments. There are nine functioning township governments in Marion County that are independent of the Unigov. For this reason, I don't think that chops of townships should be considered as significant, though they may be handy for drawing nices square boundaries.

IN-1 (Northwest, Gary) -0.03%, D+5.68 A69, B17, H11, As1, O1.
IN-2 (North Central, South Bend, Elkhart) +0.46%, R+9.28 A83, B7, H7, As1, O1.
IN-3 (Northeast, Fort Wayne) -0.25%, R+17.30, A88, B6, H4, As1, O1.
IN-4 (West, Terre Haute, Lafayette, Kokomo) -0.33%, R+14.35, A89, H4, B3, As2, O1.
IN-5 (Northern, Western Indianapolis suburbs) -0.11%, R+10.57, A84, B8, H4, As3, O1.
IN-6 (Indianapolis, Central and Southern) -0.18%, D+12.75, A62, B26, H8. As2, O1.
IN-7 (East, Muncie, Richmond, Eastern, Southern Indianapolis suburbs) +0.00%, R+18.22, A93, B3, H2, As1, O1.
IN-8 (Southwest, Evansville, Tell City) +0.35%, R+18.06. A94, B3, H2, O1, AS1.
IN-9 (Southeast, New Albany, Louisville suburbs, Cincinnati ex/suburbs, Bloomington, Columbus) -0.09%, R+11.73, A92, H3, B3, As2, O1.

Standard Deviation 0.25%

[jimrtex]

Sol's map wins for Kentucky!

Were the results published somewhere?

would you like me to make a spreadsheet of all the state votes?

Yes.

kk i'll make it over the weekend (super busy this week )

What's the status of the KY results? I have more than a passing interest. I'm involved with some graduate level academic research on redistricting algorithms, and any feedback about which maps were preferred over others may find its way into that research. Even better would be comments about the maps, but that doesn't seem to be the way panelists want to react. Of course if people want to say why they voted for a particular plan, I'll dutifully make note.

On a side note: Shouldn't Sol be moved into the open Dem spot? Then a Pub or at least an indy would take the second R spot.

The KY maps are all so similar, that it is hard to generate much passion about which map is best. The Sol and Muon2 maps appear to be  almost identical, except that Sol has more chops to get down inequality (not my bag, but that is a matter of taste), while the Jimrtex has some extra erosity that appears not to really be necessary (with that jut into Laurel County looking particularly unfortunate).

Laurel gives better equality, while avoiding chops and maintaining regional integrity.

[jimrtex]

This is my base plan. Ohio does not have a statewide system of RCOG's, and many counties are members of multiple organizations. Instead, I'm basing my map on the UCC's.



UCC allocations:

Cleveland 3
Columbus 2+
Cincinnati 2+
Dayton 1+
Akron 1
Toledo 1
Youngstown 1
Canton 1
Remainder 4-

The four-county Cleveland UCC is entitled to 2.751 districts. The area in the extreme NE corner (Geauga and Ashtabula) has to be added to either Cleveland, Akron, or Youngstown regions. The additional population puts the Cleveland region at 3.021. The small surplus complements the small deficit in the Akron region.

The Cleveland region will be divided into: (1) Medina and Lorain, plus western and southern Cuyahoga; (2) Lake, Ashatbula, and Geagua, plus eastern Cuyahoga; (3) Cleveland and other areas in Cuyahoga. Ideally, this can include the near eastern suburbs, so as to provide a maximum minority population.

The Akron UCC is entitled to 0.975 districts. The deficit will be made up from the Cleveland region. Whether this is from Cuyahoga, Medina, or Geauga depends on what provides the best alignment of the Cleveland districts.

Youngstown UCC and Canton UCC are too large to share a district, so the Youngstown region extends southward picking up small industrial towns along the Ohio River, west of the West Virginia northern panhandle.

The Dayton UCC is slightly greater than one district. Miami is dropped, and Fayette is added based on population balance.

The four-county Cincinnati UCC is entitled to 2.193. Two districts needs three counties, plus most of the fourth. Hamilton has population for 1.113 districts. (1) One district will be in Hamilton; (2) Butler, Warren, remainder of Hamilton, and some of Clermont. (3) The remainder of Clermont will be added to an area eastward along the Ohio River (this counts as one of the four outstate regions).

I had originally extended the Canton district southward parallel to the Youngstown district and to meet up with the Cincinnati river district, but that didn't work out very well.

The four-county Columbus UCC has a population equivalent to 2.290 districts. Delaware fits better with Franklin since it is more a pure suburban area, while Licking and Fairfield have distinct population centers of Newark and Lancaster, respectively. Franklin and Delaware, along with Madison and Union have a population equivalent to 1.989 districts. (1) Columbus and southern and eastern areas of Franklin (1) Northern and western Franklin, including parts of Columbus, and Delaware, Union, and Madison.

Fairfield and Licking will form about half of a district stretching eastward. This counts as another of the four outstate districts.

The Canton region was then extended westward.

This means the two remaining outstate regions will be in the western and north central parts of the state. Ideally, the Toledo area would extend eastward along Lake Erie picking up smaller industrial areas, but this made the two rural areas less compact as they had to stretch into the northwest corner of the state. So instead the Toledo area was shifted to include four rural counties in the northwest.

In a better world, we would only need two chops in Cuyahoga, one in Franklin, one in Hamilton, and one in Clermont to achieve reasonable equality.


These are the four Cleveland-Akron seats.



OH-1 (Cleveland) Cleveland and eastern suburbs - Cleveland, Euclid, Cleveland Heights)

-0.02%, D+32.53, B47, A 44, H 5, As 2, O 1.

OH-2 (Cleveland Suburban West - Lorain, Elyria, Lakewood)

-0.04%, R+0.15, A 89, B 4, H 4, As 1, O 2.

OH-3 (Cleveland Suburban South and East - Parma, Mentor, Strongsville)

-0.25%, R+4.74, A 92, B 3, As 2, H2, O 1.

OH-11 (Akron - Akron, Cuyahoga Falls)

+0.00%, D+2.58, A 85, B 11, As 2, H 1, O 1.


There are three Columbus area seats.



Franklin County detail



OH-4 (Columbus - Columbus) 97% of the district is in the city of Columbus, Columbus itself is too large for a district, but 91% of the city is in Columbus. The areas of Columbus that are in OH-5 provide contiguity to cities such as Worthington, Upper Arlington, Whitehall, Bexley, and some more populated unincorporated enclaves. Some of the tentacles, such as that between Dublin and Hilliard are trimmed back. Three eviscerated townships: Franklin, Clinton, and Mifflin, parts of two others: Perry, Blendon, and Truro, and two isolated villages: Valleyview and Minerva Park are also included in OH-4.

-0.12%, D+19.77, A 63, B 26, H 5, As 4, O 2.

OH-5 (Columbus Suburbs - Columbus, Grove City. Dublin. Delaware City, Upper Arlington) Roughly 60% of the district is in Franklin, with the remainder in Delaware, Union, and Madison. 94% of the areas in Franlin, that are not in the city of Columbus are in OH-5, where they form about half the district.

-0.13% R+5.19, A 86, B 7, As 4, H 2, O 1.



OH-6 (Eastern - Newark, Lancaster, Zanesville) Roughly half the population are included in the suburban counties of Fairfield and Licking. For population balance, Monroe township of Licking is shifted to OH-5, the western tier of townships of Coshocton is added from OH-14, the southern tier of townships of Belmont is added from OH-13, and the southern tier of Hocking is shifted to OH-9.

+0.20%, R + 14.11, A 94, B 3, O 1, H 1, As 1.


There are four Cincinnati-Dayton areas seats. The Cincinnati UCC has population for just more than two districts, and the Dayton UCC has population for slightly more than one district. For the Dayton district, Miami was dropped and Fayette was added, because it was adjacent and had about the right population. OH-10 includes the two core Dayton metro counties of Montgomery and Greene, and is about 96% nested within the UCC.

Hamilton has the population of about 1.11 districts. The original intent was to have one district in Hamilton, with the other district comprised of Butler, Warren, the remainder of Hamilton (northeast corner) and some of Clermont. The remainder of the UCC (most of Clermont) was placed in a district with counties along the Ohio River to the east.

A somewhat reasonable map was drawn, but the 3-district region was slightly underpopulated. Four towns from southern Fayette, and the southern tier of Hocking were added to OH-9, which left the 3 Cincinnati districts unbalanced. I couldn't find a reasonable way to adjust the plan, so I added Clinton to Butler-Warren district, and shifted the Hamilton portion to the northwestern part of the county. A small part of Clermont is included for population balance.

Most of Clermont is added to the eastern district.



OH-7 (Cincinnati - Cincinnati)

Most of Hamilton county, except the northwest corner.

+0.09%, D+4.89, A 69, B 25, As 2, H 2, O 1.

OH-8 (Northern suburbs - Hamilton, Middletown, Mason)

Butler, Warren, and Clinton counties, remainder of Hamilton, and a smidgen of Clermont (Goshen township, Loveland (Clermont part).

-0.00%, R+17.98, A 86, B 6, As 2, H 1, O 1.

OH-10 (Dayton - Dayton, Kettering, Xenia)

Montgomery, Green, and Fayette. Four townships in Fayette are shifted to ON-9 for population balance.

+0.12%, R+3.96, A 79, B 16, As 2, H 2, O 1.



OH-9 (Clermont, Southern Ohio - Athens, Chillicothe, Portsmouth)

Most of Clermont and 12 whole counties to east. Four townships in Fayette, and southern tier of Hocking added for population balance.

-0.08%, R+15.22, A 95, B 2, O 1, H 1, As 1.




OH-12 (Toledo - Toledo, Bowling Green)

Six counties in extreme northwest Ohio. 79% of the district is in the Toledo UCC. Two townships are shifted in from Ottawa for population balance.

+0.04%, D+3.00, A 81, B 11, H 5, As 1, O 1.

OH-15 (Western - Springfield, Lima, Sidney)

13 counties in western Ohio. Western tier of Putnam shifted in for population balance.

+0.02%, R+21.44, A 93, B 4, H 1, O 1, As 1.

OH-16 (Northern - Mansfield, Findlay, Marion, Sandusky)

13 counties in northern Ohio. Two townships in Ottawa shifted to OH-11, western tier of Putnam shifted to OH-15, western tier of Ashland shifted in from OH-14 for population balance reasons.

+0.04%, R+13.90, A 92, B 4, H 3, O 1, As 1.




OH-13 (Youngstown - Youngstown, Warren, Steubenville)

6 counties in northeastern Ohio. The linear shape is due to Akron and Canton districts constraining the district to the Pennsylvania and West Virginia line. The southern tier of Belmont townships is shifted to OH-9 for population balance.

-0.02%, R+2.05, A 88, B 8, H 2, O 1, As 1.

OH-14 (Canton - Canton, Massilon, Wooster,)

7 counties in northeastern Ohio. The district is forced south and west by Akron and Younstown districts. The western tier of Ashland townships is shifted to OH-16 for population reasons. While providing a cleaner-looking boundary, aligned with the Lorain/Huron-Erie border to the north, it does come right up to the Ashland city limits. An alternative would take a couple of townships from the southern part of the county. The western tier of Coshocton is shifted to OH-9 for population balance.

+0.13% R+11.00, A 93, B 4, H 1, O 1, As 1.


Final Map:




UCC's

Cleveland 2.751 districts:

OH-1 1.000 (100% in UCC), OH -2 1.000 (100%), OH-3 0.752 (75%)

Columbus 2.289 districts.

OH-4 0.999 (100%), OH-5 0.863 (86%), OH-6 0.427 (43%)

Non-optimal split preserves county boundaries, keeps Fairfield and Licking together.

Cincinnati 2.192 districts.

OH-7 1.001 (100%), OH-8 0.942 (94%), OH-9 0.250 (25%)

Non-optimal split preserves county boundaries better.

Dayton 1.108

OH-10 0.966 (97%), OH-15 0.142 (14%)

Non-optimal split preserves county boundaries.

Akron 0.975

OH-1 0.975 (98%)

Toledo 0.787

OH-12 0.787 (79%)

Youngstown 0.623

OH-13 0.623 (62%)

Canton 0.521

OH-14 0.521 (52%)


Large Counties:

Cuyahoga 1.775

OH-1 1,000 (100% in county, includes all of Cleveland), OH-2 0.3

43 (34%), OH-3 0.433 (43%)

Non-optimal packing of Cuyaghoga, due to UCC extending on east and west of county along lake shoreline.

Franklin 1.614 districts

OH-4 0.999 (100%, includes 91% of Columbus), OH-5 0.615 (62%)

Hamilton 1.113

OH-7 1.001 (100%, including all of Cincinnati), OH-8 0.112 (11%)


Small County Splits:

Geauga: OH-3 0.105, OH-11 0.025
Clermont: OH-9 0.250, OH-8 0.024
Putnam: OH-16 0.031, OH-15 0.011
Licking: OH-6 0.221, OH-5 0.010
Ashland: OH-14 0.064, OH-16 0.009
Ottawa: OH-16 0.049, OH-12 0.009
Belmont OH-13 0.091, OH-6 0.007
Hocking OH-6 0.034, OH-9 0.007
Fayette OH-10 0.035, OH-9 0.005
Coshocton OH-14 0.048, OH-9 0.003

Total Gerryvictims 0.110 (79628)
Gerry Rate 6.9 (per 1000)

[jimrtex]

OH-4 (Columbus - Columbus) 97% of the district is in the city of Columbus, Columbus itself is too large for a district, but 91% of the city is in Columbus. The areas of Columbus that are in OH-5 provide contiguity to cities such as Worthington, Upper Arlington, Whitehall, Bexley, and some more populated unincorporated enclaves. Some of the tentacles, such as that between Dublin and Hilliard are trimmed back. Three eviscerated townships: Franklin, Clinton, and Mifflin, parts of two others: Perry, Blendon, and Truro, and two isolated villages: Valleyview and Minerva Park are also included in OH-4.

-0.12%, D+19.77, A 63, B 26, H 5, As 4, O 2.

There are several Columbus-area noncontiguous parts.

I lost the long version, here is the short one.

Ohio has discontiguous townships (unincorporated areas) as a result of annexations by cities removing territory from the townships, or other cities annexing territory. Some cities, Columbus, Dublin, Westerville are independent of any township, and when they annex the territory it is removed from the township. Other cities such as Worthington and Grove City do not remove territory from township, but may remove it from the political authority of the township. In Franklin County many townships have become quite fragmented.

This is an election precinct in Perry Township. The big block contains Brookside Golf Club, and the adjacent Brookside Estates residential area, which is adjacent to Worthington to the east. Four small exclaves to the southeast are adjacent to Worthington. Eight small exclaves to the norhwest are surrounded by Columbus. They are likely unpopulated or have small handfuls of persions.

DRA uses VTD's which are based on election precincts. In a real exercise, I would either argue that political entities should be treated as if they were self-contiguous, or exclude the areas that are surrounded by Columbus.



This is a map of Columbus (in Franklin County)



This is the map of OH-4.



The district considerably cleans up the city limits.

97% of OH-4 is in Columbus. 91% of Columbus is in OH-4 (Columbus is too large for a district).
94% of the non-Columbus part of the county are in OH-5.

The apparent enclaves have very few persons. They are shown because of (1) deficiencies in DRA, or (2) they would be permitted under a practice of treating political entities as self-contiguous.