Congressional Special Election (last call! unstickied after NY-27 final results)

[cg41386]

When did Roy Moore get involved in this? Imo

Because I questioned whether that Lutz guy was a Dem. He might be a registered Dem, but closer to something like a Dixiecrat.

[AudmanOut]

When did Roy Moore get involved in this? Imo

Because I questioned whether that Lutz guy was a Dem. He might be a registered Dem, but closer to something like a Dixiecrat.

What does that have to do with Roy Moore though?

[jimrtex]

Again, the fraud here cannot be proven or disproven purely by looking at the stats. The stats can be useful to a) get some indication whether something strange happened and whether an investigation is warranted and b) assuming the wrongdoing is shown, to get some idea of its scale. But actual finding of wrongdoing would have to primarily rely on establishing what happened on the ground: affidavits, testimony, paper trail, etc.

If all there were to go by were the statistical anomalies, in the absence of other evidence I would still argue that Harris should be seated. I mean, one could imagine that there indeed was an efficient vote-by-mail operation on one side, and that could account for many of the apparent anomalies. Alas, it seems, evidence is rapidly accumulating that law was violated. And that evidence cannot be overturned by explaning away statistical anomalies. At this point, it seems, not only repeating the election, but also criminal prosecution may be warranted.

Ag, if you compare the relative share of absentee votes to total votes, Bladen County Democrats and Republicans are EQUALLY efficient, at around 6.6% and 6.7% of the votes in congressional elections. The only group that is higher is Yancey County Democrats.

The "anomaly" is not an interparty difference, but rather Bladen relative to other counties.

It is not atypical for these numbers to be around 1% or 2%, though there were a few counties, generally more urban, where it pushed 3% or 4%. If you can push up the vote total by a few 1000 votes it is worth the effort.

In 2016, Roy Cooper won the Democratic nomination for Governor by a 68.7% to 31.3% margin, over Kenneth Spaulding. Not too surprising since Cooper was the sitting AG at the time.

Statewide, 1.7% of Cooper's votes were vote by mail. 1.6% of Spaulding's were vote by mail.

In Bladen County, Spaulding received 62.9% of the vote, to 37.1% of the vote for Cooper.

Bladen County was Spaulding's best county in the state.

Spaulding did even better than Cooper in the absentee ballots, gaining 74.2% of the vote.

11.5% of Spaulding's Bladen County vote was by absentee, but 6.8% of Cooper's was as well.

Statewide 1.7% of Cooper's votes were absentee, his share in Bladen County was four times as great. Statewide, 1.6% of Spaulding's votes were absentee, his share in Bladen County was 7 times as great.

Spaulding also won the in-person voting, but not by the same margins.

Clearly, Bladen County has a tradition of absentee voting. It can be an effective part of a GOTV strategy. An effective GOTV strategy identifies every supporter, or potential voter, and tries to get them to vote. It doesn't bother trying to convince voters to switch.

In a primary, where voters have less identity with the candidates, it is easier to persuade a voter. A slogan of "four legs good" is meaningless, when there is a pig, a dog, and cat running. They're all good candidates.

Bladen is the fourth largest county in the state (by land area), and very rural, with only 35,000 people. The largest town of Elizabethtown has about 3500 persons. Bladenboro has around 1800, Clarkton and Dublin under 1000. It is also isolated. The nearest TV terrestrial TV stations are in Wilmington, 60 miles away. If you want to GOTV in Bladen County, do you run lots of commercials in Charlotte? MO. Do you even run lots in Wilmington? Probably not because most of the viewers don't live in NC-9.

Bladen has early voting, but only in Elizabethtown. The election day voting in Elizabethtown is depressed relative to the rest of the county. If you can go over to the library and vote any day of the week, including Saturday's for a two week period, why would you wait until November, when the weather might be bad, and there might be a line?

On the other hand if you live in Bladenboro or Dublin, or even more remote part of the county do you take the drive over to Elizabethtown just to vote. If you had other business, you might. But it at least 20 minute drive both ways, so you've shot an hour minimum. Election day takes five minutes. Or do you plan to early vote in Bladenboro, Dublin, or East Arcadia, like you did in 2016, but find out that there will not be early voting at those locations in 2018.

Someone comes around and asks if you will vote for McHarris or Ready or somesuch - they're from Charlotte and you've never heard of either one. If you are black, and your registration is Democrat, and the campaigner is a black Democrat, they will remind you of your duty to vote. If you say that you aren't registered, they'll tell you that is no problem since you can register when you apply for an early ballot, they'll have registration forms with them. You could register if you vote early (in Elizabethtown), but not on election day in your local polling place. The same sort of appeal will work for white voters. The truth is that in Bladen County, the colors for the major parties are black and white, not red and blue. You don't have use the N-word, you can mention "those people".

"I don't know, I've heard it's complicated. I'll probably just vote on election day." (translation - I'll probably go fishing.)  The campaigner explains that it easy, I'll help with the form, and help you when you vote. If you do decide to vote on election day, you can just take your ballot to the polling place.

It is easy to apply for an absentee ballot. The campaigner already has the form with your name and address printed or handwritten in (Democrats appear to use printed forms, Dowless hand written - by the campaigner, not the voter, whose writing probably looks like chicken scratches.). The voter only has to sign the form. The campaigner will take it to the county board. The campaigner can also help with the registration form. It is probably better because the handwriting will be more legible, and the campaigner will know that a PO Box can't be used for a place of residence. The campaigner will also be sure that the voter provides some form of identification, such as the Driver's license or SSN.

Also, near relatives may request an absentee ballot. Near relative includes, spouses, (step)children, (step)parents, grandparents, grandchildren, siblings, mother/father-in law, son/daughter-in law. In a 2016 affidavit, one voter explained that she had applied for herself, her forty-year old daughter, and two 20-year old sons. She didn't receive the ballot for the daughter, because she lived out of state (and since she was forty, she might have done so for decades). When the campaigner came to collect her ballot, she said she hadn't had time to fill out the ballots (plural).

Many voters will receive the ballot, and vote it themselves. But they will need two witnesses. It is not uncommon for two absentee ballots to be returned from a given address, and the voter on one, will be a witness on the other and vice versa. Likely husband and wives witnessing each other. Then the 2nd witness for both will have the same surname, but maybe a different address, so perhaps a son or daughter. Some families appear to have ballot-witnessing parties.

Then comes the complicated process of filling out the ballot envelope. There are two address labels, one with a bar code that are to be stuck on the envelope. Then the voter can check a couple of boxes indicating whether they want a ballot for a runoff, or have a disability and want to get annual absentee ballots, and if so where to send them. Many people prefer to get their mail at a locked PO Box, rather than an unlocked mailbox on the side of the road in a rural area.

Then they have to check a box indicating whether they had two witnesses, or a witnessing notary. And then they have to sign and date the envelope.

If there is an assistant, he fills in his name and his name and address, and signs his name and dates it. Then the witnesses write in their names and addresses and signs it. Or if the witness is a notary, he fills out the notarization affidavit - which means he has to write the name of the voter who he observed, along his stamp, etc.

It is a lot easier if you have campaigners who know what the procedure is. "Take the two labels and stick them here - the one with the bar code goes on the bottom. That's it. Now check this box since you had two witnesses, and sign here. And put today's date - '10/27/18' OK. Give me the envelope and we will sign as witnesses. Now then, put your ballot in the envelope, and seal it. Now you have to take it the county election board in E'town, or you can mail it. Tell you what, give me the ballot, and I can take it by the post office and mail it for you, and make sure it gets post marked."

The NCSBE recommends taking absentee ballots into post offices and getting it hand postmarked. It says that mail placed in outside collection boxes doesn't get postmarked.

[jimrtex]

Why do you keep bringing up different data and not responding to the data I and others bring up? You implied Harris’ 61% in absentee was in line with his ED vote in Bladen. Do you now see it’s a red flag?

The reason why is that I am capable of looking at data and making an independent conclusion.

Others (perhaps including you) have certain prejudices.

You should consider a third category here besides 1) election data and 2) personal prejudices. The third category is artifacts from the reporting and incipient criminal case here which is being heavily investigated and reported on and which led the bi-partisan board of elections to refuse to certify the election.

You haven't made the argument for throwing all of that out and only considering speculative and possibly tendentious interpretations of data in order to reach a conclusion. And it looks like you're choosing not to engage with what's being reported or investigated, and that's confusing.

What is being "reported" is incomplete or biased.

It seems that you are suggesting if something is "reported" it is facially truthful and complete.

Have you spent any time looking at the actual data dumps from the NCSBE?

Have you spent any time comparing the population of the votes cast in different precincts relative to their population?

Did you notice that three One Stop locations from 2016 were not operated in 2018, and that election turnout was up in those precincts relative to 2016, even though overall turnout was down.

Have you looked at past elections results from Bladen County?

Jimtex, you offer generally very good observations on the redistricting board. However, your "analysis" here is bordering on JJ level obstinacy.

Try to concede that the North Carolina Republican party might have a point in saying that things are obviously fishy here?

Did you read about the Democrat who had gone into a consulting business with McCrae Dowless. After the NY Times revealed this, the Democrat resigned his position as a Democratic member of the Bladen County Board of Elections.

It is now being reported that McCrae Dowless gave voters rides to the polls on election day. Do you find that fishy?

[jimrtex]

Funny how R cheerleaders who would vote for a pile of smelly socks with an (R) next to it act as though they’re “persuadable” voters that the Democrats are pushing away.

Anyway, it seems like the bipartisan Board of Elections is likely to call a new election.

You do know that "Bipartisan" is part of the name of the board that the Republican-majority legislature set up over Roy Cooper's veto. He claimed that if it had equal number of Republicans and Democrats that it would thwart his role as chief executive of the state to execute his policy with regard to elections.

He has won a lawsuit in state court getting rid of the "Bipartisan" board, and replacing it with a 5-member Democrat-majority board appointed by Cooper. The decision was stayed, so the "Bipartisan" board could certify the 2018 election results. If a new election is called, it will likely be by the Cooper-appointed board.

[jimrtex]

It appears that questions have arisen on the Democratic side as well: "WBTV investigation reveals absentee ballot work done by Democrat-funded PAC"

This is fake news.

If it were true, the referral letter from the District Attorney for Bladen County to the Wake County DA would have mentioned the Bladen County Public Improvement PAC. Or if the letter did mention the BCPIPAC, CNN would have zoomed in on that sentence, instead of the next sentence that mentions McCrae Dowless.

If it is not on CNN, MSNBC, or in the New York Times or Washington Post it is not true.

Look who did this. Some local TV station in Wilmington.

BTW isn't that Michael Cogdell the person who was videoing inside the One Stop location in the 2016 election, and then took it outside to show to Horace Munn of BCPIPAC?

[jimrtex]

https://twitter.com/KristinWSOC9/status/1071442184065437698 A Dem apparently.

Yes Lutz resigned after it was reported that he had been in a consulting business with McCrae Dowless. Lutz said he only did it to find out McCrae Dowless's secrets. Now its been reported that Dowless provides rides to the polls. So the scandal widens from absentee ballots to electiond-day.

[jimrtex]

lmbo:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

fwiw, Lutz does come up as a Democrat in a search of NC's voter registrations: https://vt.ncsbe.gov/RegLkup/

'Things have gotten way out of hand': Bladen Co. Board of Elections vice chair resigns

Lutz was the Democratic chair of Bladen County, who was in a consulting business with McCrae Dowless. Dowless was a Democrat at the time.

[jimrtex]

https://twitter.com/JoeBrunoWSOC9/status/1071517270608961542

This seems like a good idea.

Do you remember when the national media was reporting all of the ballots witnessed by groups of people. They had obtained photocopies of the ballot envelopes. They said that they were public record, and anyone could legally go over to county board of elections and made copies.

Here it is.

EXCLUSIVE: Absentee ballot envelopes in North Carolina fit into "a pattern of fraud"

The witness statements are on the back of ballot envelope. The voter's signature is also on the back of the envelope. So unless anybody can go over to the County Board of Elections and photocopy just part of the envelopes, or the envelopes are torn apart, the voter's signature can be photocopied.

Here are ballot envelopes that the NCSBE have released (they have redacted the voter signatures which are in the middle of the page.

Absentee ballot return envelopes obtained from the Bladen County Board of Elections office for the 2018 general election (PDF)

Absentee Envelope

North Carolina apparently does not use a mailing envelope like other states.

The labels that are stuck to the upper left corner, and are printed with the voters name address, etc.

The NCSBE daily produces a file of which absentee ballots have been returned.

North Carolina should eliminate vote by mail except for persons who will be outside the county for the entire election period.

They should make sure that early voting in person is available to every voter in the county. No voter should have to travel outside his voting precinct, unless it less than a short distance (3 or 5 miles, say).

Voters who are confined due to illness or injury should have election officials come to them. I think this is done in France.

 

[Virginiá]

I sure hope people weren't under the impression that if we started allowing voting by mail, that there would never be any fraud whatsoever, and that if there was we'd just scrap the whole thing. The worst response to this would be to make voting harder just because of a few counties where people/groups have run ballot mills unimpeded because lazy election officials never bothered to investigate or get the authorities to file charges. As has been said in this thread a number of times already, these people did not just appear out of thin air. They have been doing this for years now, and it's been widely known. Why nothing was done until now is anyone's guess.

The appropriate response to this is that the state invest resources into going after people who do this when they receive information about it, not when it hits the news due to possibly tipping a razor-close Congressional election.

[lfromnj]

I sure hope people weren't under the impression that if we started allowing voting by mail, that there would never be any fraud whatsoever, and that if there was we'd just scrap the whole thing. The worst response to this would be to make voting harder just because of a few counties where people/groups have run ballot mills unimpeded because lazy election officials never bothered to investigate or get the authorities to file charges. As has been said in this thread a number of times already, these people did not just appear out of thin air. They have been doing this for years now, and it's been widely known. Why nothing was done until now is anyone's guess.

The appropriate response to this is that the state invest resources into going after people who do this when they receive information about it, not when it hits the news due to possibly tipping a razor-close Congressional election.

https://www.latimes.com/opinion/editorials/la-ed-ballot-harvesting-20181207-story.html

I mean how can ballot harvesting be considered something good? I take the position of the LA time editorial except for the ca21st where it almost certainly flipped it but idc about that. I just don't think people should be allowed to collect another's ballot to deliver it to the election board.

[Virginiá]

https://www.latimes.com/opinion/editorials/la-ed-ballot-harvesting-20181207-story.html

I mean how can ballot harvesting be considered something good? I take the position of the LA time editorial except for the ca21st where it almost certainly flipped it but idc about that. I just don't think people should be allowed to collect another's ballot to deliver it to the election board.

I wasn't talking about that lol

It was in response to jim's musing that we basically disallow absentee voting (mail) in almost all cases except when they are out of county, which is a patently absurd proposal.

I'm not fundamentally against not allowing "ballot harvesting." But it was already illegal in North Carolina, which, as I stated in my post, was evidently a law that was never enforced for god knows what reason. So my question to you is, if it's already illegal and they are still doing it, what do you do then? State authorities and election boards apparently abdicated their duty to run fraud-free elections here.

[lfromnj]

https://www.latimes.com/opinion/editorials/la-ed-ballot-harvesting-20181207-story.html

I mean how can ballot harvesting be considered something good? I take the position of the LA time editorial except for the ca21st where it almost certainly flipped it but idc about that. I just don't think people should be allowed to collect another's ballot to deliver it to the election board.

I wasn't talking about that lol

It was in response to jim's musing that we basically disallow absentee voting (mail) in almost all cases except when they are out of county, which is a patently absurd proposal.

I'm not fundamentally against not allowing "ballot harvesting." But it was already illegal in North Carolina, which, as I stated in my post, was evidently a law that was never enforced for god knows what reason. So my question to you is, if it's already illegal and they are still doing it, what do you do then? State authorities and election boards apparently abdicated their duty to run fraud-free elections here.

oh I just ignored jimtrex lol.

[Virginiá]

oh I just ignored jimtrex lol.

Not sure if you ever read/follow Rick Hasen's stuff, but he wrote this about how Republicans are already using NC-09's election fraud to gin up support for more voting restrictions. The NC GA already added absentee voting to the voter ID law it is passing, which it made very overt attempts to avoid because older, Republican-leaning people disproportionately use absentee voting services. But the point is that voter ID would not have done anything to stop this, but as usual, politicians use crises to justify measures that won't actually fix anything just so they can say they are "working hard" to solve problems:

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/12/north-carolina-election-fraud-voter-id-laws.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I'm not entirely against the idea of absentee voting requiring voter ID if in-person voting is going to have it as well, but it's mostly that I'm afraid conservatives are going to use this brazen case of election fraud to justify more voter suppression when in reality none of that stuff is going to stop this kind of fraud and obviously, is not even intended to stop it.

So I just thought it was kind of amusing that not long after, some users are already moving on to the "END ALL MAIL VOTING" phase of the debate.

[jimrtex]

When did Roy Moore get involved in this? Imo

Because I questioned whether that Lutz guy was a Dem. He might be a registered Dem, but closer to something like a Dixiecrat.

Ken Lutz was Prentis Bentson's campaign manager.

[jimrtex]

When did Roy Moore get involved in this? Imo

Because I questioned whether that Lutz guy was a Dem. He might be a registered Dem, but closer to something like a Dixiecrat.

What does that have to do with Roy Moore though?

When Ken Lutz was Prentis Benston's campaign manager, the Benston campaign had to return a $4000 contribution from a registered sex offender. Prentis Benston's opponent in the 2010 Democratic runoff for sheriff was Eric Bryan. His campaign manager was Leslie (McCrae) Dowless, who had a felony conviction.

Both Benston and Bryan were officers (Captain and Lieutenant, respectively) in the sheriff's department. The sheriff Steve Bunn was not running for re-election and actually retired during the election campaign.

Delilah Blanks, a county commissioner, who happened to be Prentis Bentson's former mother-in-law allegedly tried to double vote in the primary. She voted at the early voting location in East Arcadia. And then attempted to vote a second time in Elizabethtown, but was denied. She claimed that she was just testing the system, and had a duty to do so as county commissioner. She said she had discussed the matter with county elections director, who denied any such conversation (the elections director actually runs elections, the board of elections is an oversight body). She was later observed at the Dublin early voting location, but did not attempt to vote.

Sheriff Bunn had endorsed Lieutenant Bryan as his successor, and granted him an unpaid leave of absence to run for sheriff. The county commissioners, on the motion of Delilah Blanks, voted to deny the leave of absence.

Earl Storms was appointed as interim sheriff to fill out the last part year of Bunn's term. Storms had been sheriff from 1976-1994, before Bunn became sheriff.

Storms refused to hire Bryan (apparently a sheriff, even an interim sheriff has the authority to choose his entire staff). There were other stormy relationships with his staff (one deputy resigned because he said he expected to be fired the next day). Some county commissioners wanted to remove Storms, but Storms said only a judge or God could get rid of him.

Earl Storms may be the same Earl Storms who was (apparently) elected as Water&Soil Supervisor. The NCSBE has ordered the Bladen County Board not to certify this race.

You may have heard of the expression "six degrees of separation". In Bladen County, they use a different number. It may be less than one.

[The Mikado]

Did Jimrtex seriously post eight consecutive times a bit ago?

[Virginiá]

Did Jimrtex seriously post eight consecutive times a bit ago?

Probably the most active he's been on this board since I joined.

My only issue is that so much of it is background stories and other random information coagulating in massive essay-posts that I really have no idea what he's getting at half the time.

[jimrtex]

I sure hope people weren't under the impression that if we started allowing voting by mail, that there would never be any fraud whatsoever, and that if there was we'd just scrap the whole thing. The worst response to this would be to make voting harder just because of a few counties where people/groups have run ballot mills unimpeded because lazy election officials never bothered to investigate or get the authorities to file charges. As has been said in this thread a number of times already, these people did not just appear out of thin air. They have been doing this for years now, and it's been widely known. Why nothing was done until now is anyone's guess.

The appropriate response to this is that the state invest resources into going after people who do this when they receive information about it, not when it hits the news due to possibly tipping a razor-close Congressional election.

There was a state investigation since at least last January. The NCSBE sent out letters to every voter in Robeson and Bladen counties telling them about what is supposed to happen with absentee ballots. It included

The Republican DA for Bladen County had referred three groups to the Wake County DA for investigation (my guess is that the nexus was money coming from groups based in the state capital of Raleigh providing funding). This was a county that as late as 2010 was voting 88% Democratic straight-ticket. Do you think Roy Cooper or Eric Holder would go after a black group?

Malcolm took advantage of the ongoing investigation when the congressional race turned up close. He may have obliterated any chance of getting a thorough investigation.

Remember that Harris had a 3700 vote lead among voters who actually voted in person, where their ID's could be scrutinized, and there were people who could actually see that they were marking their own ballot.

With vote by mail, there are simply too many steps that are outside review by election officials and poll watchers generally.

[jimrtex]

I sure hope people weren't under the impression that if we started allowing voting by mail, that there would never be any fraud whatsoever, and that if there was we'd just scrap the whole thing. The worst response to this would be to make voting harder just because of a few counties where people/groups have run ballot mills unimpeded because lazy election officials never bothered to investigate or get the authorities to file charges. As has been said in this thread a number of times already, these people did not just appear out of thin air. They have been doing this for years now, and it's been widely known. Why nothing was done until now is anyone's guess.

The appropriate response to this is that the state invest resources into going after people who do this when they receive information about it, not when it hits the news due to possibly tipping a razor-close Congressional election.

https://www.latimes.com/opinion/editorials/la-ed-ballot-harvesting-20181207-story.html

I mean how can ballot harvesting be considered something good? I take the position of the LA time editorial except for the ca21st where it almost certainly flipped it but idc about that. I just don't think people should be allowed to collect another's ballot to deliver it to the election board.

That is interesting that the Democratic-controlled legislature opened the ballot collection loophole.

In Texas, the legislature has been trying to close that loophole, where runners collect dozens of ballots. In Fort Worth, one voter admitted that a harvester had filled out her ballot, but that he knew how she voted. When asked who she voted for, she said the Democrats. It was a non-partisan election. Another voter, who happened to live across the street from the school where he would vote in person, didn't want to vote absentee because it was so convenient to vote in person. But he did remember signing a yellow sheet of paper for some other reason. It happened that a yellow sheet of paper was used for his application for an absentee ballot.

In Texas, people in the elections office or post office tip off the vote-harvesting machines when absentee ballots are put in the mail. The harvesters might "help" the voter by collecting their mail out of their mail box, and bringing it to the voter and then help them fill out the ballot, and returning the ballot.

Vote fraud may be difficult to prosecute, because the voter may be complicit in the fraud. If you received $10 for your ballot, are you going to admit it?

[jimrtex]

https://www.latimes.com/opinion/editorials/la-ed-ballot-harvesting-20181207-story.html

I mean how can ballot harvesting be considered something good? I take the position of the LA time editorial except for the ca21st where it almost certainly flipped it but idc about that. I just don't think people should be allowed to collect another's ballot to deliver it to the election board.

I wasn't talking about that lol

It was in response to jim's musing that we basically disallow absentee voting (mail) in almost all cases except when they are out of county, which is a patently absurd proposal.

Why is it "patently absurd"?

[jimrtex]

oh I just ignored jimtrex lol.

Not sure if you ever read/follow Rick Hasen's stuff, but he wrote this about how Republicans are already using NC-09's election fraud to gin up support for more voting restrictions. The NC GA already added absentee voting to the voter ID law it is passing, which it made very overt attempts to avoid because older, Republican-leaning people disproportionately use absentee voting services. But the point is that voter ID would not have done anything to stop this, but as usual, politicians use crises to justify measures that won't actually fix anything just so they can say they are "working hard" to solve problems:

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/12/north-carolina-election-fraud-voter-id-laws.html

Hasen mentioned True The Vote. When they had a poll watcher at a predominately black early voting location, a Democratic-elected official was called. The next day, the local election officials were mentioning casually noting what a nice swimming pool that the poll watcher had.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JuddLegum/status/1071600014147903489

[ajc0918]

Harris is going to jail

[Virginiá]

Hasen mentioned True The Vote. When they had a poll watcher at a predominately black early voting location, a Democratic-elected official was called. The next day, the local election officials were mentioning casually noting what a nice swimming pool that the poll watcher had.

No surprise there. I'm sure Engelbrecht is totally concerned about actual election integrity and not just, say, """election integrity""" in Democratic/highly diverse counties.

Nothing screams integrity like this:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Why is it "patently absurd"?

Because you don't just end a major voting service like absentee voting at the first sign of trouble. Although when it comes to elections, I guess that is a very typical blue avatar response, many of whom never wanted early/absentee voting to begin with.