French legislative election 2012

[Niemeyerite]

How is Yonne 1re considered slightly Gauche?? I hope you're right, but the UMP+FN are 10 points over FG+PS. I know that FG voters are more likely to vote for PS than FN are to UMP (and there will be more FN people voting for PS than FG ones for UMP). However, a 10-point advantage for the right is just too much, don't you think? 

[Hash]

How is Yonne 1re considered slightly Gauche?? I hope you're right, but the UMP+FN are 10 points over FG+PS. I know that FG voters are more likely to vote for PS than FN are to UMP (and there will be more FN people voting for PS than FG ones for UMP). However, a 10-point advantage for the right is just too much, don't you think? 

How many times do we need to say that adding UMP and FN votes is a stupid idea? There right doesn't have a "10 point advantage" or whatever here unless you're a braindead journalist.

55-60% of FN voters here will vote UMP, 90-98% of FG voters will vote PS (plus the Green and some far-left voters). On these numbers, the left has a (small) edge, without even counting any FN transfers to the left. Notice the gap?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes, it makes sense to add up PS-FG-EELV-Whatever totals (at least as an indication of something), but doing that with the UMP and FN misses the point that a lot of FN votes are 'fyck you!' votes.

[Niemeyerite]

How is Yonne 1re considered slightly Gauche?? I hope you're right, but the UMP+FN are 10 points over FG+PS. I know that FG voters are more likely to vote for PS than FN are to UMP (and there will be more FN people voting for PS than FG ones for UMP). However, a 10-point advantage for the right is just too much, don't you think? 

How many times do we need to say that adding UMP and FN votes is a stupid idea? There right doesn't have a "10 point advantage" or whatever here unless you're a braindead journalist.

55-60% of FN voters here will vote UMP, 90-98% of FG voters will vote PS (plus the Green and some far-left voters). On these numbers, the left has a (small) edge, without even counting any FN transfers to the left. Notice the gap?

I think I said that it's not accurate to add FN to UMP votes... In fact, what I said was that FG voters are more likely and vote more for the PS than FN do for the UMP. But, Yonne 1st is a right wing place, so I don't think PS has the edge there. Let's wait until Sunday. You know more about French politics than me. You may be right.

So, please, next time, don't call my ideas 'stupid'. It's unnecessary.

[Zanas]

Yes, that was uncalled for.

Nevertheless, Hashemite and Sibboleth are right :
- you take PS : 35,8
- you take FG+EELV*90% : 8,7
- you take NPA+LO*75% : 0,8
That's 45,3 for the left.

- you take UMP+DVD+MPF : 35,2
- you take DLR*80% : 1
- you take AEI*50% : 0,2
That's 36,4 for the right.

Take 16,8 for the FN, give 12% = 2 to the left, give 60% = 10 to the right, the other 4,8 won't vote.

You still have 47,3 for the left and 46,4 for the right, which makes 50,5 % left and 49,5 % right in terms of valid votes. And that's with not so good transfers for the left.

So Yonne-1 leans left in this election, yeah.

[homelycooking]

So, please, next time, don't call my ideas 'stupid'. It's unnecessary.

Relax, it's just Hash. You can tell how optimistic he is about French politics by his repeated use of "moron", "braindead", "retarded douchebag", "f--king idiot", etc.

[Hash]

How is Yonne 1re considered slightly Gauche?? I hope you're right, but the UMP+FN are 10 points over FG+PS. I know that FG voters are more likely to vote for PS than FN are to UMP (and there will be more FN people voting for PS than FG ones for UMP). However, a 10-point advantage for the right is just too much, don't you think? 

How many times do we need to say that adding UMP and FN votes is a stupid idea? There right doesn't have a "10 point advantage" or whatever here unless you're a braindead journalist.

55-60% of FN voters here will vote UMP, 90-98% of FG voters will vote PS (plus the Green and some far-left voters). On these numbers, the left has a (small) edge, without even counting any FN transfers to the left. Notice the gap?

I think I said that it's not accurate to add FN to UMP votes... In fact, what I said was that FG voters are more likely and vote more for the PS than FN do for the UMP. But, Yonne 1st is a right wing place, so I don't think PS has the edge there. Let's wait until Sunday. You know more about French politics than me. You may be right.

So, please, next time, don't call my ideas 'stupid'. It's unnecessary.

Oh, for Christ's sake. Because you're so insistent, you've forced me to re-run my numbers on the constituency. And I still get 47.5% for the left and 46.1% for the right, on a generous assumption of 60% of FN voters going UMP (and even if 60% was 65%, the left would *still* have an edge). Then there's the strength of candidates. The PS candidate is the mayor of the biggest town by a mile in the constituency and has a strong local political footing. The UMP incumbent is retiring and their candidate is a regional councillor and former suppléant. And, no, don't play the argument that being a 'right-wing place' means that left cannot possibly win it; unless you feel like explaining to me why Jean-Christophe Lagarde and Marc Le Fur will probably win reelection or why the PS won both seats in the Meuse in 2002. I wouldn't be shocked if the UMP did win here, but I would not be placing money on that outcome.

I didn't call *your* ideas stupid, but I called the general idea - which 99% of casual observers are guilty of - of even thinking about adding UMP and all FN votes, regardless of whatever justifications you put for it. If you felt like I insulted you, I apologize, because that wasn't my intention, but I'm terribly fed up and exasperated by all the inanities and stupidities which have been said about these elections by all kinds of people. And regardless, adding UMP and FN votes is a stupid idea, though people who do it are not necessarily stupid. But in the realm of ideas, it is only stupid rather than moronic.

Now can I get back to serious business?

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Yes, it makes sense to add up PS-FG-EELV-Whatever totals (at least as an indication of something), but doing that with the UMP and FN misses the point that a lot of FN votes are 'fyck you!' votes.

Well, in the 1997-2012 French politics that was definitely how it happens.

In the 2012-something French politics, it's up for a new era.

The FN raises more and more an adhesion than a f**k off feeling, maybe it's not clear electorally so far, but in the debates, in the media, in what people say, in polls, that's apparently more and more the case, and you hear more and more people saying that they could never vote for Jean-Marie but that Marine is decent to them. And 18% with 81% turnout shows something. That kind of 'populist patriotism' perfectly fits the French cultural mood that is going on in this country for years, and by which I'm particularly fed up (and all the problems I had with the regional mood that's going on in this country in the last years were in this sense). A guy like Philippot, who clearly was the 2nd most important FN guy in the Présidentielle campaign, perfectly illustrates this. This plus the fact that what is supposed to be the classical Right tries to suck more and more at the Far-Right ideas, with clear groups (Droite Populaire) and even big figureheads like formerly mainly Sarkozy-Guéant and now mainly Coppé-Morano, regardless of the future of those latter figureheads, the 'ideas are living. All of this makes the FN having more and more the image of a regular party in France.

On the Left side, Jospin's 'majorité plurielle' is more or less over too, Greens, regardless of their last scores and of their enslaving agreement, took more an ideological self-assurance and don't want to see anymore as the petty green touch of painting on a corner of the PS logo. And FdG gave really a new psychological turn to the Far-Left too, and the time when PCF was the classical little puppet or 'leftist consciousness' of PS seems to be over, Mélenchon is a perfect embodiment of this, regardless of the fact that it's PCF who would have the most sits and who wouldn't be fan of having their comfy habits disturbed. So technically, electorally, it's rather safe to add them in an election, that's for sure. Politically, culturally, no.

The point is that French institutions and electoral system is very hardly representative of the political life of the country, which, outside of the fact that I wouldn't really believe anymore in the kind of Modern political systems in which we are living, is an other of those things that have been particularly annoying to me along years (heck, even considering the German electoral system and institutions, which remains part of the classical nowadays democracies, look like making a civilizational gap compared to French ones).

In France you have the Président, and the Street.

Some elections not really representative of the political life which are like a big cover on a pressure-cooker, the pressure grows and grows and grows in the society (the Street), when it's too much the Président/Elected Mornach/Half-God all powerful person listens to the Street and change some things. That's the way it goes. And during the few very relative representative electoral moments of those country (Présidentielle election mainly), you have Marine Le Pen doing 18% with 81% turnout, or JMLP making the 2nd run in 2002 and thus depriving the country of any true debates during at least 5 years...

France is a country that apparently like to go by à coups:

Pressure-BLAST-Pressure-BLAST-Pressure...etc.

There is a famous saying in France when people are fed up, they say:

Ca va péter! ('Gonna blast!')

Something like an Hollande presidency would make evolve it, but slowly, and also chaotically if MLP and her 'ideas' take more and more importance in the political debate, regardless of her electoral scores. Amusing how (thankfully!) all the trends go toward the end of that kind of things, either by a weakening of this, embodied by Hollande, or by an overdose of it, very much embodied by Sarkozy during the campaign and now by MLP, the Guignols de l'info are less and less funny, but still sometimes they remain good, and the way they portray that former one like 'Miracle maker Televangelist' is quite good. What's presents the most constructive political (economical things aside) evolution is FdG (and within them overall PdG) and Greens, but still no clear trends succeeds to emerge so far.

The point now is to see how this political system will crumble.

Or in a more constructive way, what could follow...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Oh and want the last 'gate' (that also goes in the sense of what I was saying about UMP and FN getting closer and closer)?

http://tempsreel.nouvelobs.com/le-reveil-politique/20120615.OBS8732/morano-piegee-je-n-ai-pas-envie-que-ca-devienne-le-liban-chez-moi.html

Morano trapped by the famous humorist/imitator Gerald Dahan (famous for having already trapped several famous people including some politicians.

He called Morano on phone and imitated Louis Aliot (MLP's husband, 2nd of FN hierarchically) to negotiate a FN support to Morano against a withdrawal of UMP against Collard, and then the conversation goes, and Morano loves to discuss politics, and is a very...spontaneous...person, so she very openly says to the supposed Aliot that:

'Marine Le Pen has a lot of talent'

'There are society projects on which I agree with you'

And in the end she says in a very heart-broken tone that:

'They [PS & friends] gonna put France in a sh!t like it's never been! Right and Left aren't the same! They gonna pass the voting right to foreigners! I don't want it becomes Lebanon here!'

Enjoy...

The most pitiful part is that, no matter the fact that it's rather close of what she already openly said, she now attacks the humorist in justice, saying it's a manipulation of her words (well the record is available on Internet, hard to access though, technical problems), an usurpation of identity and that she never gave her agreement for this (^^), so it makes her all looking as 'No! No! I never said that!', which discredits still more, in case it was needed, her camp on those topics and making FN looking like 'at least those are straight on what they think'...just what UMP needed.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Morano finally showed the true face of modern French right. Massive kudos to Gérald Dahan for this little trick.

Glad to see some people found my map interesting. :) BTW, here are the corrected totals accounting for qualified candidates who dropped out (this is based on Andrea's list, as I have no idea how to verify by myself).

Left wins by 1st round : 25 39 (plus Cher-2, Nord-16, 17, 19, HdS-1, SSD-1, 4, 6, 7, 11, VdM-10, 11, SM-3, 8)
Left VS left : 22 8 (minus Cher-2, Nord-16, 17, 19, HdS-1, SSD-1, 4, 6, 7, 11, VdM-10, 11, SM-3, 8)
Left VS other : 7
Left VS far-right : 21 23 (plus BdR-13, 16)
Left VS left VS far-right : 1 0 (minus BdR-13)
Left VS left VS right : 8 2 (minus Aude-2, Finistère-3, 6, HG-3, PdC-6, HdS-11)
Left VS right : 426 436 (plus Aude-2, Finistère-3, 6, HG-3, Morbihan-2, PdC-6, PO-2, Yvelines-3, Vaucluse-5, HdS-11)
Left VS right VS other : 2
Left VS right VS right : 4 2 (minus Morbihan-2, Yvelines-3)
Left VS right VS far-right : 31 28 (minus BdR-16, PO-2, Vaucluse-5)
Right VS far-right : 9
Right VS other : 5
Right VS right : 5 4 (minus Paris-4)
Right wins by 1st round : 11 12 (plus Paris-4)

[big bad fab]

Yonne-1

I'd say, because it's Yonne SW, not Alpes-Maritimes or inner Morbihan, and considering the fact the UMP candidate, Larrivé, is a living caricature for FN voters: a young ambitious, ENA+business school+Sarkozy's office !

35.8 + 3.3 (20% of FN) + 4.8 (95% of FG) + 3.8 (80-85% of Greens) + 0,4 (a bit less than 50% for the far-left, as it's only the "pure" remnants of LO and NPA) = 48.1 for the left

34.4 + 9.2 (55% of FN) + 1.1+0.5 (not exactly 100% of DVD) + 0.1 (something from AEI) = 45.3 for the right.

So, yes, it's really lost for the right, all the more that the PS candidate is mayor of Auxerre, the main city.
Julio, if you had spent hours on all the 577 constituencies (), you would have been aware that it's really good for the left, as we have many, many situations where it's something like 46.3 vs 46.7...
And, Julio, you put 2 question marks in your post, so... it's normal for Hash to react in a lively way.


Benoît, the FN isn't more respectable now than before 2011: all the guys around Marine really want power (contrary to Jean-Marie Le Pen), but they are at least as mad as the former team. And they are even far less intelligent.
Though they were cr*p, at least, people like Le Gallou, Blot, Martinez, even devil Stirbois, were clever guys.
So, as for leaders, middle and local politicians, rank-and-file, the transfers between UMP and FN may be, at a certain point, as impossible as ever.

And FN voters aren't likelier to transfer to the UMP than before, as it's again a mix between popular vote and "strong right" vote, plus (it's new in 2012) a rural and far-exurban vote. What Sarkozy did in 2007 was to appeal DIRECTLY to popular voters, apart from his traditional bourgeois base. It wasn't the FN rank-and-file or appartachiki who rallied Sarkozy.
So, today and for some years to come, adding UMP+FN hasn't any more relevance than before.

Of course, if the Droite populaire-wing of the UMP was a party of its own and if France had PR as electoral system, then you could add FN+Droite+populaire+UMP+even centre-right MPs, though still not the voters.

[Andrea]

) BTW, here are the corrected totals accounting for qualified candidates who dropped out (this is based on Andrea's list, as I have no idea how to verify by myself).

I've spotted a mistake in my original list. I then added 3 more PS who are running as only candidates on Sunday. It's due to 3 more FG withdrawals (Val de Marne 11, Seine Maritime 3 and

[Antonio the Sixth]

) BTW, here are the corrected totals accounting for qualified candidates who dropped out (this is based on Andrea's list, as I have no idea how to verify by myself).

I've spotted a mistake in my original list. I then added 3 more PS who are running as only candidates on Sunday. It's due to 3 more FG withdrawals (Val de Marne 11, Seine Maritime 3 and

Rectified accordingly. Where do you get your sources ? From the news, or is there an official list somewhere ?

[big bad fab]

http://www.elections-legislatives.fr/candidats.asp

[Antonio the Sixth]

Oh yes, I knew that one, but nothing specific for dropouts I guess.

[Andrea]

) BTW, here are the corrected totals accounting for qualified candidates who dropped out (this is based on Andrea's list, as I have no idea how to verify by myself).

I've spotted a mistake in my original list. I then added 3 more PS who are running as only candidates on Sunday. It's due to 3 more FG withdrawals (Val de Marne 11, Seine Maritime 3 and

Rectified accordingly. Where do you get your sources ? From the news, or is there an official list somewhere ?

I got from the number of "candidats uniques" from the news. Some of them were mentioned in the articles, others not and I had to double check with the list of candidates on the ministry website. However, as they basically all were in Left-Left battles, it was quite easy to idenfity what kind of departments were likely to have them (or going by memory).

I got the list of 12 who dropped out from triangulaires from a news website. I just verified these constituencies checking the candidates lists as their number made sense when comparing potential triangulaires reported on Monday morning to the number of effective triangulaires reported on Wednesday by the media.

[Niemeyerite]

Ok, people, I don't know 1/1000 of what you know about French politics... But Hash, you didn't need to be rude (I think you were, sorry). I felt like an idiot.

And OK, I'm actually glad that you three consider Yonne 1st a leaning PS seat Sorry if I am too ignorant, but I believed that Yonne, being a conservative place, would not elect a socialist.

Oh, I won't come here to say I was right and I know more than you if finnally UMP carries Yonne-1st "a la krazen", so don't worry hahaha... I hope I was wrong with that prediction and PS can take places where the majority of people chose the right last Sunday and where Sarko won last month.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Why does France have to hold four elections in a year? It seems that'd be kind of annoying and not good for turnout, why not just have one for the first round of the presidential and legislative and then one for the second round of presidential and legislative?

[rob in cal]

It seems like alot of European countries that directly elect a President do it seperately from the legislative elections, such as Ireland, Austria, Slovakia etc, and only in the case of France is it scheduled a month before the legislative elections, but yes it must be weird to be constantly voting, kind of like many parts of Germany in 1932, where many people voted five different times.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I suspect the reasoning might be that it allows people specific time to focus on each election, so they can first just focus on the presidential campaign and then only on the legislative one. But still seems kind of unnecessary, not to mention expensive.

[Foucaulf]

Why does France have to hold four elections in a year? It seems that'd be kind of annoying and not good for turnout, why not just have one for the first round of the presidential and legislative and then one for the second round of presidential and legislative?

Two reasons, I think:

-Technically, the legislatives were not intended to always land on the same year as the presidentielle. That became only the case once the presidential term was reduced to five years.
-In Europe the concept of a single person controlling executive and legislative authority is widely accepted. Let France be the example: the presidential election is what really matters, in which the quasi-monarch is elected. The legislative election follows not because it is a serious contest, but because it legitimates the president's power. The president's party is supposed to win the legislatives. If the elections were held at the same time, you could have a president facing an opposition parliament - which would be awkward indeed.
In the US the executive and legislative are supposed to be divided, which is why the timing of the elections means less. Ideally one type of election should not affect the other anyway.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ok, people, I don't know 1/1000 of what you know about French politics... But Hash, you didn't need to be rude (I think you were, sorry). I felt like an idiot.

This is Hash, you'd better get used to it. We are great friends, yet on a couple occasions he was pretty rude to me as well.


And Foucaulf is absolutely right on législatives. That's exactly what sucks about our political system.

[Hash]

-In Europe the concept of a single person controlling executive and legislative authority is widely accepted. Let France be the example: the presidential election is what really matters, in which the quasi-monarch is elected. The legislative election follows not because it is a serious contest, but because it legitimates the president's power. The president's party is supposed to win the legislatives. If the elections were held at the same time, you could have a president facing an opposition parliament - which would be awkward indeed.

This is correct, but only since 2000. Prior to that, legislative elections were far more important and were much less (except for elections like 1981 or 1988) confirmations of the president's mandate.

Anyhow, I changed my predictions to give NKM the edge. So subtract one from the PS and overall left and add one to the UMP and overall right.

[big bad fab]

Oh yes, I knew that one, but nothing specific for dropouts I guess.

Just compare to the results, for example here:
http://fr.news.yahoo.com/elections/resultats/

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

-In Europe the concept of a single person controlling executive and legislative authority is widely accepted. Let France be the example: the presidential election is what really matters, in which the quasi-monarch is elected. The legislative election follows not because it is a serious contest, but because it legitimates the president's power. The president's party is supposed to win the legislatives. If the elections were held at the same time, you could have a president facing an opposition parliament - which would be awkward indeed.
In the US the executive and legislative are supposed to be divided, which is why the timing of the elections means less. Ideally one type of election should not affect the other anyway.

Still I would expect people to vote for a majority for the same person they votes for president. I don't see why Hollande would have been more unlikley to win a majority on the day of the presidential than he is today. Well except the depressed turn-out among some right-wingers, but you can't really base an election dates on that you want lower turn-out.