NH-Gravis Marketing Ayotte Leads 49-42

[mds32]

Gravis Marketing
US Senate
Kelly Ayotte (R) 49%
Maggie Hassan (D) 42%

http://www.oann.com/pollnh/

[Rockefeller GOP]

Kelly Ayotte got really lucky that she wasn't named Ken Ayotte lol. Anyway, she was up by more in the last Gravis poll and pretty much all "undecideds" in NH are Democrats... so, still tilt D.

No.  Anyone who doesn't think this is a tossup is a moron.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Once the primaries are over, we will get some real polls out of NH. CLINTON struggling in NH, is due to the tide of Sanders, but she's closing the gap & so will Hassan. Strickland & Hassan are good contenders, having served as GOVs.

[MT Treasurer]

No.  Anyone who doesn't think this is a tossup is a moron.

Yeah, we've heard it in 2004, 2008, 2012 and 2014. Time to think of something new.

[mds32]

No.  Anyone who doesn't think this is a tossup is a moron.

Yeah, we've heard it in 2004, 2008, 2012 and 2014. Time to think of something new.

So you want to say that 51-48% Governor election in 2004, a 52-45% Senate election in 2008, and close Governor/Senate elections in 2014 means that the Senate election with a Republican Incumbent is not a tossup? Seriously. These are close elections and anything can go.

[Rockefeller GOP]

No.  Anyone who doesn't think this is a tossup is a moron.

Yeah, we've heard it in 2004, 2008, 2012 and 2014. Time to think of something new.

No, we didn't.

And just leave out the year that, ya know, Ayotte ran.  NH is a lean D state, and most people acknowledge that.  You did "first," I guess.  Don't push your luck by acting like it's DC.

[mds32]

No.  Anyone who doesn't think this is a tossup is a moron.

Yeah, we've heard it in 2004, 2008, 2012 and 2014. Time to think of something new.

No, we didn't.

And just leave out the year that, ya know, Ayotte ran.  NH is a lean D state, and most people acknowledge that.  You did "first," I guess.  Don't push your luck by acting like it's DC.

Tag team!!!!!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

These numbers are swayed by the presidential primary numbers. And Hassan, just like Strickland is a fmr gov and have had recent success in taking out senators.

Once primaries are over, I expect Hassan to rebound.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

G(R)avis <

[Rockefeller GOP]

G(R)avis <

Gravis is awful, but I'm not sure it's biased.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The same Gravis poll that had Heck up by 10. Ayotte is up by 3-5 points.

[Xing]

Kelly Ayotte got really lucky that she wasn't named Ken Ayotte lol. Anyway, she was up by more in the last Gravis poll and pretty much all "undecideds" in NH are Democrats... so, still tilt D.

Yeah, I'm sure if Kirk or Johnson were leading by 7, you'd totally call those races tilt D.

[mds32]

The same Gravis poll that had Heck up by 10. Ayotte is up by 3-5 points.

Let's see... Ayotte is going up against a sitting Governor with luke warm approval ratings.
Rep. Joe Heck is operating off of name recognition against an Attorney General who hasn't had her name in politics for two years, while Heck represents some one of the major media markets in Nevada.
Your comparison can quite easily be explained I think.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hassan is going to win, Ayotte voted against background checks for guns and voted against funding Obamacare. This will be in a ad, once Hillary starts GE campaign. Not to mention Palin's endorsement.

[Higgs]

TNVolunteer can you change your avatar to R-NH if Ayotte wins this?

[Xing]

Kelly Ayotte got really lucky that she wasn't named Ken Ayotte lol. Anyway, she was up by more in the last Gravis poll and pretty much all "undecideds" in NH are Democrats... so, still tilt D.

Yeah, I'm sure if Kirk or Johnson were leading by 7, you'd totally call those races tilt D.

I wouldn't, but NVT is much more Democratic at the statewide level than WI and IL and early NH polls usually favor the GOP. Most undecideds are Democrats.

Republican successes in IL and WI have been largely contained to two very good midterm years. They haven't done well in either of those states in a presidential year in a very long time. I'm 90% sure the Democratic nominee will do a bit better in WI than NH, and 150% sure they will do significantly better in IL than NH. Kirk and Johnson have to win more crossover voters than Ayotte, and there really isn't any evidence to suggest that they'll win a plurality of the "undecided" voters.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Govs have had good records at taking out inc Senators, that's why Strickland will defeat Portman


SUNUNU has the advantage over Van Ostern, but Shea Porter & Shaheen and Hassan are approved by Clinton, as she has campaigned with them.

[MT Treasurer]

I'm 90% sure the Republican nominee will do a bit better in WI than NH, and 150% sure they will do significantly better in IL than NH.

Glad we're agreeing on this.

[Xing]

I'm 90% sure the Republican nominee will do a bit better in WI than NH, and 150% sure they will do significantly better in IL than NH.

Glad we're agreeing on this.

So you think the Republican will do much better in IL than WI?

...

/You know what I meant.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This state loves females and Hassan chose to run for Senate than face Sununu due to Sununu being favored. The Gov race wont be that close, with Van Ostern, but Senate race will be the barn burning purple race.