MO-SEN 2018: The Megathread

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1017046605852233728

Yeah, starting to see McCaskill as lean D. IN and ND need more help.

[Zaybay]

Well the primary is Tuesday. I've sort of been wondering if Hawley might actually lose. I don't think there is actually that much enthusiasm for him among Republican primary voters, and I have seen a lot of signs touting other candidates.

It would be hilarious if he loses, that would ensure a D hold on MO.

[Zaybay]

Remington GOP Internals:

Early July 2017
Hawley 50-44

Mid August 2017
Hawley 50-45

Mid October 2017
Hawley 48-45

Early January 2018
Hawley 49-45

Early July 2018
Hawley 48-46

Early August 2018
47-47 tie

these are Republican internals, keep that in mind...

pattern?

But muh MO +20 Trump

But muh Claire didnt vote for Gorsch

But muh excellent candidate Hawley

On a more serious note, Hawley really is blowing this race. Not only is his own internals going against him, but based on the primary, which was 53R-47D overall, it seems that Claire will have an easier time than thought.

This race is starting to lose its tossup nature, but IN.....

[Zaybay]

Remington GOP Internals:

Early July 2017
Hawley 50-44

Mid August 2017
Hawley 50-45

Mid October 2017
Hawley 48-45

Early January 2018
Hawley 49-45

Early July 2018
Hawley 48-46

Early August 2018
47-47 tie

these are Republican internals, keep that in mind...

pattern?

But muh MO +20 Trump

But muh Claire didnt vote for Gorsch

But muh excellent candidate Hawley

On a more serious note, Hawley really is blowing this race. Not only is his own internals going against him, but based on the primary, which was 53R-47D overall, it seems that Claire will have an easier time than thought.

This race is starting to lose its tossup nature, but IN.....

Bruh, even I think we hold this seat lol and I'm the Balderson by 6 and Moore by 8 guy lol.

heh, yeah.

Im starting to see the only possible seats that will flip from our column being IN, and ND, and those states have no polling so I could be incredibly wrong about that.

[Zaybay]

Remington GOP Internals:

Early July 2017
Hawley 50-44

Mid August 2017
Hawley 50-45

Mid October 2017
Hawley 48-45

Early January 2018
Hawley 49-45

Early July 2018
Hawley 48-46

Early August 2018
47-47 tie

these are Republican internals, keep that in mind...

pattern?

But muh MO +20 Trump

But muh Claire didnt vote for Gorsch

But muh excellent candidate Hawley

On a more serious note, Hawley really is blowing this race. Not only is his own internals going against him, but based on the primary, which was 53R-47D overall, it seems that Claire will have an easier time than thought.

This race is starting to lose its tossup nature, but IN.....

Bruh, even I think we hold this seat lol and I'm the Balderson by 6 and Moore by 8 guy lol.

heh, yeah.

Im starting to see the only possible seats that will flip from our column being IN, and ND, and those states have no polling so I could be incredibly wrong about that.

I think I migt change my Cramer by 8 prediction because it is starting to sound a bit ridiculous, I'm thinking 3-4 points for Cramer now, but I have no idea about IN. I've heard they have had really draconian polling laws or something like that which is why we really don't have enough data to accurately characterize this race. Rn I would say Braun by a point, but I really think we need more info to really characterize this race well, and also the factor of how involved will Pence get in this race.

Both states are terrible with polling. In ND, registration doesnt exist, and so poll samples are always off. This is the reason Heidi was trianged in 2012, because polling showed her consistently 6 points down, and, well, you know what happened.

In IN, calling is not allowed, so polls are terribley expensive to do, so the only polls we get out of there are Gravis, which is not the best in terms of quality.

For all I know, we could be leading in both states and sitting on a senate majority, but I dont know, because the polling sucks.

[Zaybay]

Lol...Hawley got snubbed

https://mobile.twitter.com/BryanLowry3/status/1037725808138313729

whoa, thats like, Trump's best demographic

[Zaybay]

Wow, Claire wont vote for a man whos having a sexual assault charge, how terrible. Its not like polling has shown that voting for Kavenaugh would be worse for her than voting for him. Yeah, this is a likely R race now, Bagel is right, as always. /s

[Zaybay]

Wow, Claire wont vote for a man whos having a sexual assault charge, how terrible. Its not like polling has shown that voting for Kavenaugh would be worse for her than voting for him. Yeah, this is a likely R race now, Bagel is right, as always. /s

I said Lean R and you know it.

Nah, its definitely likely R, Bagel, for once you may be incorrect. You see, even though Claire has lead in polling, fundraising, and has the advantage, the court seat that Democrats care more about than Republicans will juice up turnout for Rs, causing Claire to lose, cause she didnt win that one Conservative, Trump supporting Republican who was "undecided". We should just swear in Hawley now, saves the trouble of counting votes. /s

[Zaybay]

ooooof
https://twitter.com/jamesokeefeiii/status/1052001125765910529?s=21

cool story bro.

[Zaybay]

Take this with a grain of salt, but apparently there’s quite a big discrepancy between public polls and R internal tracking here:

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1051457539672555521

Cool, R internals are a good way to judge this race.

[Zaybay]

Just FYI... for St. Louis County, MO which Claire may need to win nearly 2 to 1 to win statewide that there is a correlation between how trumpy an area is and how many bunnies you see in the wild. The more  bunnies there are the more trumpy it is.

Didnt know the Boston Suburbs were hardcore Trumpers.....