Russian Presidential Election, 2018

[Crumpets]

Yavlinsky, to answer the poll.

On another topic, this is a map I made of a hypothetical more equal 2012 election, which pretty much just measures where parties over-performed the most (essentially a PVI map). I'm curious what changes we might see, especially since A Just Russia won't be participating, and I know Atlas likes to dispute whether their voters are actually anti-Putin or not.



United Russia
Communist Party
LDPR
A Just Russia
Prokhorov (Independent)

[Crumpets]

Here's a picture of the ballot. As far as I'm aware, Russia does not have an option for write-in candidates, so everyone voting Navalny on this thread would simply have their ballot not counted, which IMHO is not that effective of a protest. Some other interesting things - Putin has by far and away the shortest resume on the ballot - all it says is "Born in 1952, lives in Moscow, President of the Russian Federation, self-nominated"

Compare that to Suraykin's which reads "Born in 1978, lives in Moscow, political party: "Political Party COMMUNIST PARTY COMMUNISTS OF RUSSIA" Chairman of the Central Committee. Nominated by the political party "Political Party COMMUNIST PARTY COMMUNISTS OF RUSSIA" member of the political party "Political Party COMMUNIST PARTY COMMUNISTS OF RUSSIA" Chairman of the Central Committee of the party."

Holy redundancy Batman!

[Crumpets]

Chechnya turnout is "only" 79%.  I would have expected around 95% turnout and around 99% vote for Putin.  It seems Kadyrov is off his game.

Maybe he forgot to count all of the people in his concentration camps.

[Crumpets]

Dumb question: If Yavlinsky isn't "controlled opposition", why is he allowed to run?

This is just a guess, but I suspect it's because Yavlinsky is a known entity, and Putin doesn't see him or his politics as an existential threat. Even when elections in Russia were more fair than they are now, Yavlinsky never did well because, while his opinions resonate with a lot of people in the west, "Being more western" has never really been a winning position in Russia.

Meanwhile, Navalny has put western liberalism aside, and focuses his attacks on Putin's corruption and kleptomania. Those points are much harder to brush aside than simply calling him a Western lackey like he can do with Yavlinsky. Putin knows that having Yavlinsky in the news gives him just another person to attack. Having Navalny in the news is something that makes Putin a little more hesitant to draw attention to the matter.

[Crumpets]

Chechnya turnout is "only" 79%.  I would have expected around 95% turnout and around 99% vote for Putin.  It seems Kadyrov is off his game.

Maybe he forgot to count all of the people in his concentration camps.

So far Putin support in Chechnya is 89%.  A disastrous showing for Putin.  He should be at least 98% here.

Where are you getting regional results?

[Crumpets]

So far Putin support in Chechnya is 89%.  A disastrous showing for Putin.  He should be at least 98% here.

Where are you getting regional results?

https://sputniknews.com/russia-elections-2018/201803161062517712-russian-presidential-election/

How the heck did Yavlinsky manage to have his third best region after Moscow and St. Petersburg be Ingushetia? He did way better there than anywhere in the Caucasus, even. Sobchak also had it as her best region in the Caucasus. That just seems so... random. Is there some EU-backed movement to give Ingushetia more autonomy, or something?

[Crumpets]

Here's a preliminary map of the change in Putin's % of the vote between 2012 and 2018. Some things stand out, such as Mordovia, which was one of Putin's best areas in both 2012 and 2018, but where the anti-Putin vote got something of a dead cat bounce, even while all nearby areas swung strongly to Putin. Putin also clearly cleaned up among the old "Red belt" voters in places like Belgorod, Kursk, and Oryol. Not good news for the communists.