NH-PPP: Tossup with Hassan, double-digit lead for Ayotte against Kuster

[Maxwell]

They also polled a No-Ayotte scenario:

Hassan 54
Lamontage 35

Kuster 43
Lamontage 39

Those numbers are interesting. They suggest that Ayotte has a big incumbency advantage but it may not be enough to save her.

Which is why she's always included in lists of vulnerable senators despite her big 2010 win.

It's really surprising that Ayotte even won by such a landslide in 2010, especially considering the political nature of NH.

The political nature of NH is exactly why she won by such a landslide in 2010. NH succumbs very easily to the waves. It's why +70 approval Governor Lynch almost lost and why Senator Jeanne Shaheen almost lost to SCOTT BROWN.

[Maxwell]

lol. Ayotte is totally doomed because she trails the state's most popular politician by a significant margin by a small margin (within the margin of error, I may add). Hassan hasn't been subject to a serious opponent yet (Ovide Lamontagne doesn't count), and as much as I feel Ayotte is a useless neoconservative, Ayotte is a serious candidate. This will be a dogfight, and gun to my head, Ayotte wins by running ahead of Hilldawg.

[Maxwell]

Hassan entering the race wouldn't make this a guaranteed pick-up by a long shot, but it would turn a lean R race into a pure toss-up. Ayotte isn't to be underestimated, but she might not be able to survive a good Democratic year against a serious opponent.

I wouldn't say pure, but yes, I do think this is true.

[Maxwell]

Ayotte's 2010 victory is not indication of permanent invisibility. In a state that hasn't gone Republican in a presidential election since 2000, this is a prime pickup opportunity for Democrats.

I don't think anyone ever claimed Ayotte had either permanent or temporary invisibility.

OH BUT SOME REPUBLICANS HAVE

Which ones?

... AYOTTE WILL LOSE BUDDY, BETTER PUCKER UP

That is all you will get.