French regional election - December 6 and 13, 2015

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

What percentage does the third party have to reach in order to make the runoff a triangulaire?

5% to fuse, 10% to maintain your list.

But they really didn't want to make it simple and accessful to people, because, régionales list belong to what happens on départementales lists...

For those who understand French, a good enough video from Le Monde tries to explain it:

http://www.lemonde.fr/elections-regionales-2015/video/2015/12/05/comprendre-les-elections-regionales-en-2-minutes_4825256_4640869.html

They really screwed it up...all the way...with those 'fancy' regionales créations...

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

How powerful would panzerbabby and panzergirl be as "region presidents" or whatever? I understand the regions aren't exactly that autonomous, so they wouldn't have the capacity to do anything too nasty, right?

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

How powerful would panzerbabby and panzergirl be as "region presidents" or whatever? I understand the regions aren't exactly that autonomous, so they wouldn't have the capacity to do anything too nasty, right?

They can open their big mouth all over the media, more than ever, and that is enough to be powerful nowadays.

Moreover, there is very few time now till the Présidentielles, then they couldn't be realistically be judged on their brilliant realizations either.

Régions are overall about economical policies, so they will try to boost the most they can about that, and Phillipot already is saying that they 'would do their best' but could be blocked by 'Bruxelles', so you can always find an easy victim.

Moreover that are 2 bordering régions which have their immigration issues, even if not the same, they will love to boost anything about that.

'Lol', Phillipot being interviewed and answering as if he had already won and had taken decisions...

[Umengus]

IDF

Pecresse: 31
ps: 25
FN 18
EELV: 8
DLF: 6
FG: 6

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Had typed it, so yeah, I post it, it's a bit more complete:

Relatively sane results for IdF, unlike some crazy 'rumors':

Pécresse - LR: 30,5
Bartolone - PS: 25,4
Wallerand de Saint-Just - FN: 18,7
Cosse - EELV: 7,5
Dupont-Aignant - DLF (soveveignist): 6,2
Laurent - PCF: 6,2
Artaud LO (commies): 1,5

1% or less for each of the 6 other list, well, the Union des Démocrates Musulmans Français manages to make 0,9%, on a 12 millions people area it's something.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Bayrou now calling to withdraw...all...3rd lists.

So much for division.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

The whole Left only makes about...28% in the North.

Total historical crumbling.

[MaxQue]

The whole Left only makes about...28% in the North.

Total historical crumbling.

Yes, but the left have decent results in the West and in Auvergne--Rhone-Alpes, it seems.

[Lotuslander]

Holy smokes Batman... this colour-coded map shows just how strong the far-right loony FN has become:

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

The whole Left only makes about...28% in the North.

Total historical crumbling.

Yes, but the left have decent results in the West and in Auvergne--Rhone-Alpes, it seems.

Hmm, Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes not so sure, was anyhow speaking about the North by historical crumbling, which was an historical big leftist to far-leftist masterpiece.

Even in the West, even if, yeah, it remains the Left stronghold, when you look at the map above, the brown stuff in the middle of the south-west of it is...uncommon.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Official announce from Cambadélis (Socialistes leader):

'Républican barrage, overall in North and PACA'.

Duel Le Pen girls and Rapublicans in those both then.

[Zinneke]

Official announce from Cambadélis (Socialistes leader):

'Républican barrage, overall in North and PACA'.

Duel Le Pen girls and Rapublicans in those both then.

Isn't up to the head of lists if they withdraw or not? The PACA dude seemed pretty adamant he would stay in and not endorse Estrosi.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Official announce from Cambadélis (Socialistes leader):

'Républican barrage, overall in North and PACA'.

Duel Le Pen girls and Rapublicans in those both then.

Isn't up to the head of lists if they withdraw or not? The PACA dude seemed pretty adamant he would stay in and not endorse Estrosi.

We're in France, here the 'national' decides.

That being said, the ChamAlLo PS head is asked to withdraw in Great East, but apparently is still trying to resist.

Last moment to finalize to 2nd round lists is Tuesday, 18h.

Ah, and, waaah...



On the right, both tomorrow covers for L'Humanité, historical far-left paper, and Le Figaro, historical rightist paper, they agree!

Ah, and, on the left, Libération kinda was forth...

Personally, I'm not particularly shocked, the big breach to me was 2012, both 2014 elections were confirmations, and that is the, well, logical continuation.

The coup they could eventually make this time would be if someone that isn't a Le Pen girl manages it, that is, Phillipot in Chamallow, I'd doubt it so far but you never know.

And the only fact that such a young cutie like MMLP manages to have such a big and important French region would already kinda be a coup...



Aww, how come something like that could ever be dangerous...

Ah and, still kinda 'waaah'...

45% FN in Béziers, which is the French city that experienced the most far-rightist policies in France since 2014.

60% FN in Hénin-Beaumont, Marine Le Pen North's stronghold.

So, we have:

About 60% for the 'far-right' (shame that centrists shared their lists...)
About 36% for the Left (from Socialistes to the most annoying Commies...)
About 4% 'others'.

Welcome to France.

But thankfully, all of this only is about one half of the country (no new figures for the turnout/abstention).

[Beezer]

I am somewhat confused. The totals are the votes for regional presidents or also the regional councils?

[jaichind]

Places like Normandie, Centre-Val de Loire, and Bourgogne-Franche-Comté will be interesting in the second round.  It seems FN, Center-Right, and Left all have a chance in a evenly split 3 way contest although it seems the Left should have the advantage if they can fuse all leftist votes together.  Not sure if that is going to take place though.

[jaichind]

So which ones will FN win in the end.  Clearly the 2 Le Pens will win.   I assume Philippot will win as well in the second round which will give FN 3 wins.  I do not see any realistic chances for FN elsewhere.  Still this is an impressive win for FN.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

R.I.P. France, 1792 - 2015

[rob in cal]

   Has there ever been a case where a party has been the largest vote getter throughout a country in one type of election, like the regionals today, and has virtually no representation in the national legislature?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

How powerful would panzerbabby and panzergirl be as "region presidents" or whatever? I understand the regions aren't exactly that autonomous, so they wouldn't have the capacity to do anything too nasty, right?

The Regional Presidencies basically exist to bribe construction companies with public funds and to subsidise public transport. They don't do a lot else, which is one reason why elections to them tend to be utter disasters for incumbent governments.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

I am somewhat confused. The totals are the votes for regional presidents or also the regional councils?

All is confused with those elections technically.

1st list wins 25% of sits, plus its proportional part of what's left. that might answer the question. And shows what a, one more, brilliant reform the Socialistes did.

So which ones will FN win in the end.  Clearly the 2 Le Pens will win.   I assume Philippot will win as well in the second round which will give FN 3 wins.  I do not see any realistic chances for FN elsewhere.  Still this is an impressive win for FN.

The Le Pen wins in PACA has big enough chances but isn't totally sure either, that clearly remains an interrogation, would still be something big if she ousted an experienced guy like Estrosi.

Phillipot is far less sure, he creates a positive dynamic but it's not enough, lots would belong to PS candidate decision, if he stays far more chances Phillipot/FN wins that one too yeah, given the electoral rule I just exposed.

For Marine Le Pen, well, the big surprise would be she doesn't win.

Lol, she calls everybody to gather arround her, 'greens! far-left! join me in a big national movement!', lol, really.

As for the union on the Left, might happen, but really not with a big dynamic, 'Socialistes' acted in a totally rightist maner after terror attacks, and notably using some emergency state measures against some ecologists militants during COP21.

Not to speak about all the quite 'unleftist' trend they were already following economically.

Which could eventually even cause some, already existing, division within FdG, between PCF and PdG, Mélenchon, PdG unofficial leader, has been strongly against Socialistes for a while now. While PCF use to have became the boring ever little PS ally, mostly for electoralist reasons.

And Rapublicans still have some job to do on their side too, with the 2 biggest center-right figureheads, Lagarde and Bayrou, that called to withdraw all 3rd lists to counter FN, which is the total opposition to Sarkozy, and they are tied in all lists.

Good luck.

[MaxQue]

The whole Left only makes about...28% in the North.

Total historical crumbling.

Yes, but the left have decent results in the West and in Auvergne--Rhone-Alpes, it seems.

Hmm, Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes not so sure, was anyhow speaking about the North by historical crumbling, which was an historical big leftist to far-leftist masterpiece.

Even in the West, even if, yeah, it remains the Left stronghold, when you look at the map above, the brown stuff in the middle of the south-west of it is...uncommon.

Not really in the south-west. FN was always strong in Garonne Valley (but only there).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Eh, its fycking dire everywhere even if more so in some places than others. Admittedly a huge part of that is there's not much incentive for Left voters to turn out given that the Left is in government, but even so...

[jaichind]

In terms of total vote share the Left bloc as a while actually gained from March 2015.  It is the Center-Right that lost ground since March 2015 to both the Left as a whole as well as FN.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

The whole Left only makes about...28% in the North.

Total historical crumbling.

Yes, but the left have decent results in the West and in Auvergne--Rhone-Alpes, it seems.

Hmm, Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes not so sure, was anyhow speaking about the North by historical crumbling, which was an historical big leftist to far-leftist masterpiece.

Even in the West, even if, yeah, it remains the Left stronghold, when you look at the map above, the brown stuff in the middle of the south-west of it is...uncommon.

Not really in the south-west. FN was always strong in Garonne Valley (but only there).

FN arriving...1st?...with...30%?...never saw that personally.

Heck, even in the quiet Tarn that I left.

   Has there ever been a case where a party has been the largest vote getter throughout a country in one type of election, like the regionals today, and has virtually no representation in the national legislature?

In France?

Well, 2012 wasn't bad, 18% on Présidentielles, and 2 deputies a few weeks later.

And it's been one of the stuffs that made it grow, they can show as the 'perpetual victims of the politics-media system of which the solutions have never been used'...

How powerful would panzerbabby and panzergirl be as "region presidents" or whatever? I understand the regions aren't exactly that autonomous, so they wouldn't have the capacity to do anything too nasty, right?

The Regional Presidencies basically exist to bribe construction companies with public funds and to subsidise public transport. They don't do a lot else, which is one reason why elections to them tend to be utter disasters for incumbent governments.

Well technically the reform was supposed to give bigger power to région precisely, even if still mostly economical ones, actually so far it was mainly transports yeah, economical subsidies to companies, and, maybe the most important symbolically at least, the post-high-school education level.

Other symbolical stuff, but symbols is what matters the most nowadays, for example, recently La Voix du Nord, biggest regional paper in the North had said why they opposed Marine Le Pen, in response she said that she would cut all the regional subsidies they receive for their local TV. And this made big news in the media during a couple of day.

And so your 'soft' power grows...

But the main point with that reform would overall be that we...still...have no precise clue what the régions will now do. Just like 'we' voted for départements earlier in the year, while we still didn't know when/if they would disappear. I don't remember anything has been finally voted for all of this yet.

And all of this was supposed to clarify and make more simple all local powers.

People already hadn't much clue which scale did what anyhow, the most important scales were national and municipal, you just 'feel' what is important and what isn't so much, but all of this just adds pointless mess to pointless mess, and then anybody is surprised that people are fed up with all those brilliant elite? Just for one thing amongst others.

R.I.P. France, 1792 - 2015

1789!

Shame on you.

The most pitiful precisely being that it's the hijacking of those historical roots that helps all this mess to go on...

End of a cycle...

[Donnie]

With 95% of the votes counted:

FN  28.62%
LR  26.83%
PS  23.19%