The Delegate Fight: 2012

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TL;DR:

In caucus states, the process isn't over yet; Santorum dropping out means he won't get any delegates (unless some 'Unity Conservative' ticket is elected).

In many states, his delegates are unpledged already or were released the moment he suspended his campaign.

In other states, they are still pledged to him unless he actually withdraws or releases his delegates from their pledges.

It is not clear whether Santorum could get his name placed in nomination if he wanted it to be; it is not clear whether Santorum would want to get his name placed in nomination if he could.  I find it highly unlikely that candidates will be held to their pledges if Santorum's name is not placed in nomination.

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I'll probably keep this going until this weekend's conventions and the first set of post-Santorum polls.

Unless Gingrich (or 'Uncommitted') shows signs of life, I'm going to start winding down the thread.

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This evening features the first contest to occur after Santorum dropping out of the race: the 7th CD convention in Colorado.

I believe Santorum won the district in February, so this should be our first indicator of whether there is any remaining anti-Romney resistance.

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I looked this morning and found results... nowhere on Colorado. 

The other 6 CDs have their conventions today, followed by the State Convention tomorrow.

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There were still people who voted for Paul and Romney last time around, despite their names not being placed in nomination.  It may be more a matter off who gets to make nominating speeches, rather than who people can vote for?  I'm not sure.

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That's a breakdown of

Santorum - 6
Romney - 5
Uncommitted - 10

I had predicted, based on the caucus results, a breakdown of

Santorum - 12
Romney - 8
Paul - 1

Overall, not such a great result for the presumptive nominee.  Presumably those 'unpledged' delegates will break overwhelmingly for him, and at least Gingrich is showing no signs of life.

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Of the 10 Uncommitted delegates, the Paul people are claiming at least 7.

Through the FEC, Facebook, and media reports, I can confirm that at least 5 are in the Paul camp:

Timothy Leonard
Todd King
Jeremy Strand
Luke Kirk
Florence Sebern

The Paul folks also claim:
Solomon Martinez (Chairman, Northern Colorado Hispanic Republicans)
Karen Pelzer (while definitely possible, she seems far more Tea Party than Paulista)

They think they may have Ted Harvey (though the media has quoted him as definitely being uncommitted), and they do not claim Guy Short (formerly in the Bachmann camp) or Clement Koerber.


All in all, relatively impressive showing by the Paul camp, considering I'd only predicted one delegate for them.

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Romney had a slightly better day today at the Colorado State Convention, picking up 8 out of 12 delegates.

Apparently, there had been significant Santorum/Paul collusion at the CD conventions, which took the Romney camp by surprise; they seemed to have recovered by today's convention, however.

In summary:

At the CD Conventions:

Paul: 9
Santorum: 6
Romney: 5
Uncommitted: 1

(This may overstate Paul's showing somewhat; some of them may be Santorum supporters who listed themselves as Unpledged instead)

At the State Convention:

Romney: 8
Others: 4

It's not clear who the other 4 are at the moment.

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As expected, Romney swept the Wyoming State Convention today.

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Although it's clear that Romney still has some work to do winning over the hearts and minds of the Republican base (as evidenced by his relatively poor showing in Colorado this weekend), it is also clear that Romney has no serious opposition in the remaining primaries.  Gingrich is showing no signs of life (having been relegated to 'joke candidate' status a while back and completely buried in debt), and Paul still has a pretty hard ceiling, even if he might pick up a few anti-Romney protest votes.

There may be some surprises left in store for us at future State Conventions, but, as in Colorado this weekend, they will be largely Paulista affairs.  While amusing, I have no particular interest in documenting those quixotic endeavors when the final outcome of the process is no longer in doubt.

As such, unless there is significant popular demand, I will no longer be maintaining this thread.  Congratulations to Mitt Romney on (finally) becoming the presumptive nominee.

The Delegate Fight will return for Season 3 in December 2015, (hopefully) featuring two exciting and competitive contests for the parties' nominations.

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In Minnesota, Paul has swept the conventions in CDs 3, 5, and 6, winning all 9 delegates at stake.  I had projected Santorum - 5, Paul - 3, Romney - 1 in those districts.

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Erc, if you like I can unsticky the thread.

That'd probably be best.  I may still post in it from time to time, but the front page won't be updated.

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In Missouri's CD caucuses today, Romney won 12 delegates, Santorum 7, Paul 4, and Gingrich 1.  Three of the four Paul delegates came from CD 5 (Kansas City), where the Paulistas were apparently able to dominate; the other was from CD 1.

In Minnesota's CD conventions, which finished today, Paul all but swept, winning 20 of 24 delegates.  Of the four he did not win, 2 were in CD 7 (held before Santorum dropping out).

Details can be found on The Green Papers.

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April 24 Results:

Connecticut

Romney won all 25 delegates.

Delaware

Romney won all 17 delegates.

New York

Romney won all 92 delegates.

Rhode Island

Romney won 12 delegates; Ron Paul, the only other candidate to meet the 15% threshold, won 4.

Pennsylvania

All delegates are unbound and presumably most will end up supporting Romney at the convention.  As for their personal preferences (as of March), I can confirm

Romney - 13
Paul - 3
Santorum -3
Gingrich - 3
Uncommitted - 37

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With Gingrich soon to be out of the race, the only folks left tilting at windmills are the Paulistas.

Is there anything of any interest in the next month?

This Saturday features the Louisiana caucuses; if any results are reported, we should get some idea of how well Romney is shoring up support in a state he lost last month.

The following Saturday is the Minnesota State Convention, which will be entirely dominated by Paulistas.  Also that weekend is the Maine State Convention, where Paulista success is less certain.

The rest of May features many primaries, many of which are in states which would not favor Romney were this still an active race; it may be interesting to see how much of an anti-Romney protest vote is scattered among the candidates on the ballot.

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Ron Paul claims 16 of 19 delegates in Massachusetts:

"Paul national campaign chairman Jesse Benton told The Daily Caller that Paul supporters occupy 16 of 19 delegate slots filled in congressional district selection processes.

“They are bound to Romney but support Ron,” said Benton. The effect of this coup isn’t immediately clear.

..

Policymic reports that at Massachusetts’ 1st Congressional District’s caucus this Saturday, Romney supporters “made emotional, often angry, and desperate pleas for party unity.”

“An older woman specifically called out the Ron Paul supporters, accusing them of undermining the democratic process,” according to Policymic."

Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2012/04/29/ron-paul-supported-by-16-massachusetts-delegates-says-campaign/#ixzz1tUhuXCPT"

Well, we've only got ourselves to blame for this one.  Guess I shoulda tried to figure out the actual process here in Massachusetts and turned out for Mitt.

As for what happens at the convention...Paul (and Romney) did get a couple votes at the Convention in 2008; McCain wasn't nominated by acclamation.  Of course, it was only a handful for Paul last time, not O(100)...

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Reports (from Ron Paul people) is that they have in fact won all of Maine's delegates.

Media reports indicate Paul won all (or all but 1) of Maine's delegates (excepting the RNC members); they may also throw out the State Chairman and pick up an additional unpledged delegate.

Contrary to what I thought, Minnesota's State Convention was not this past weekend, but is two weeks from now.  Not that the outcome (a massive Paulista majority) is at all in doubt.