TN-SEN: Return of the Bredi

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Interesting, could move this race from Safe R to Safe Other R.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If Bredesen enters, I would be willing to move this out of Safe R. But he's probably not running. Oh, and McGraw would never win statewide, sorry Atlas.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Bredesen is 73. Strickland Two, Electric Boogaloo?

So we get to look forward to whatever the equivalent of this is in TN? No Thanks then.:

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Announcing tomorrow morning: https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.tennessean.com/amp/928850001

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Volunteers are fleeing the Bredesen campaign: https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/11/bredesen-backlash-kavanaugh-support-894393

I think this race perfectly illustrates the differing effects Kavanaugh has in different states. It's helpful that Manchin supported Kavanaugh, and would have helped Heitkamp had she supported him, because there's no real D base in those states, they are effectively 100% rural. Meanwhile, in TN, supporting Kavanaugh as Bredesen did actually hurts you as a Dem, because your path to victory starts first and foremost with driving up the turnout and margin as high as possible in Memphis and Nashville. Yes, you need to not get totally crushed in the rurals, but it probably doesn't matter if you can't get great numbers out of Memphis and Nashville due to a depressed base. This is also why McCaskill's position is, within a sampling error, effectively unchanged - the path to victory in Missouri comes first and foremost with driving up turnout and margin in Boone, Kansas City, St. Louis County, and St. Louis City, and opposing Kavanaugh helps with that.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Volunteers are fleeing the Bredesen campaign: https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/11/bredesen-backlash-kavanaugh-support-894393

It was a tough vote, and it would have hurt no matter what position he took. Considering it is TN, I'd think that what he did was probably the least painful position. I still think he should have deflected and avoided committing to either, though.

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Interesting! I sure hope that is true

Pollsters of both parties have a vested interest in getting internals to show a close race. If the leading party thinks the race is over and starts to get complacent, then the trailing party can sweep in and take the lead. On the other hand, if the trailing party gets too far behind, its leadership and donors may just give up on the race, handing victory to the leading party on a sliver platter.