Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread

[J. J.]

7/7/2011, Mason-Dixon: Romney 29%, Santorum 6% (-23%)
8/4/2011, Rasmussen: Romney 21%, Santorum 0% (-21%)
10/5/2011, Marist: Romney 26%, Santorum 3% (-23%)
10/19/2011, University of Iowa: Romney 27%, Santorum 3% (-24%)
10/25/2011, CNN/Time: Romney 24%, Santorum 2% (-22%)

Romney also led two of these polls.

So much for the reading comprehension...J.J. ....

Okay, and another candidate (Bachman) was rising, so Santorum wasn't gaining on Romney.  Santorum increased in the polls, but Romney did not decline at the points Santorum did.  It wasn't Romney, which was my point.

Further, as noted in my original response, Romney didn't actively campaign in Iowa until the end.

[J. J.]

haha J. J.

The two polls with Romney leads were in October, well after the Bachmann surge.

Your claim again, was:

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But, really, keep digging this hole, it's fantastic.

I missed those two and was looking at the end.  Somebody was jumping up, I thought it was Bachman.  It could be Gingrich, but they are both the same color on my monitor. 

[J. J.]

haha J. J.

The two polls with Romney leads were in October, well after the Bachmann surge.

Your claim again, was:

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But, really, keep digging this hole, it's fantastic.

I missed those two and was looking at the end.  Somebody was jumping up, I thought it was Bachman.  

By Bachman, you mean Bachmann.

By two, you mean five.

By "Somebody was jumping up, I thought it was Bachman," you mean, "man, I really made myself look like a grade-A schmuck."

It looks like Bachmann.  No, by two, I mean two in October.

Now, If you want believe Santorum can, through good campaigning, jump up 20 points, which is what Lyndon was claim, feel free to believe it.

[J. J.]

"It looks like Bachmann"?  you make so little sense

The colors on the graph, Alcon.  On my monitor, they are the same for Bachmann and possibly Cain.  I can't tell, because one of the lines is not labeled. The peak on 10/17 is the same color as the Bachmann lines (though I think she was fading at that point).

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012R/polls.php?fips=19

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If you think as Lyndon thought, that Santorum increasing, while Romney increased, in IA, marks his good campaign skill relative to Romney, be my guest.

[J. J.]

"It looks like Bachmann"?  you make so little sense

The colors on the graph, Alcon.  On my monitor, they are the same for Bachmann and possibly Cain.  I can't tell, because one of the lines is not labeled. The peak on 10/17 is the same color as the Bachmann lines (though I think she was fading at that point).

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012R/polls.php?fips=19

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If you think as Lyndon thought, that Santorum increasing, while Romney increased, in IA, marks his good campaign skill relative to Romney, be my guest.

Cain and Bachmann are the same colors.  Bachmann/Cainm, Santorum, and Romney are all totally different colors.  How would Cain/Bachmann distract you into thinking Romney is less than 20% ahead of Santorum?

I was trying to read who was ahead and trying to track who was ahead.  I missed the lead where Bachmann/Cain dropped and Bachmann/Cain (okay the lavender line) bounced up.  It looked like Romney was never leading (from August) and Santorum was always getting something.  I didn't see Romney hitting 20 until 12/12-1/12.

[J. J.]

At the rate this is going, there could soon be a huge hole in the argument that Gingrich dropping out would lead Santorum to come back and win the nomination. At this rate, even if all of Gingrich's supporters joined the Santorum camp, Romney would still hold a small lead.

Of course, there will probably be a decent chuck of the Gingrich vote that would go to Romney. Santorum will have to create a perfect storm in order to be able to come back and upset Romney.

I think if Gingrich would drop out before Tuesday, it could give Santorum a clear win both AL and MS. 

Paul dropping out might be a minor boost for Romney, but I doubt if it make much of a difference.

[J. J.]

My common sense keeps telling me Mitt is going to just keep pulling it out, but I just can't picture him giving an acceptance speech at the convention.

Requiring an ever wider stretch of the imagination, can anyone really see?:

"I, Willard Milton Romney, do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will faithfully execute the Office of President of the United States, and will to the best of my ability, preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States.

Yep.  I'm just wondering if I'll be invited to attend.

[J. J.]

I've gotten two Santorum fundraising e-mails today.  I think he might be having cash flow problems.

[J. J.]

What the...

Romney - 39% (-1)
Santorum - 26% (+1)
Paul - 12% (nc)
Gingrich - 10% (-1)

Bad sample?

[J. J.]

Now that Rick Santorum has dropped out, can we close this board now? There really is no point in keeping track of primary polls at this point. 

I think we wait a few weeks and see how it shakes out.