GA - Atlanta Journal Constitution: Clinton +4 / Clinton +3 (w/ Third Parties)

[NOVA Green]

I doubt Gary Johnson will get 10, but 3 is plausible, so the winner would need just 48.5.

http://www.ajc.com/news/news/romney-tops-obama-in-georgia-as-economy-dominates-/nScjq/
http://www.ajc.com/news/national/georgia-statewide-poll/

Interesting when compared to 2012.

The ATL Exurbs then were 35-61 Obama-Romney, now 33-51 Clinton-Trump.
The ATL Metro was 63-32 for Obama, now 69-20.
SE GA was 41-50 Obama-Romney, now 44-34 Clinton-Trump.
SW GA was 50-45 Obama-Romney, now tied (so 1 area Trump has strength in, or just noise).

College vote was 44-52 Obama-Romney, now flipped 47-36 Clinton-Trump.

The biggest question is which way the many undecides will swing, especially in the ATL exurbs, and most Johnson voters who'll inevitably peel off as the election nears (sorry for the reality check Atlas ). That probably bodes well for Trump. Though since the race doesn't require a runoff if no one gets a majority , unlike governor and senate races, Hillary has a decent chance of pulling out the plurality.

The Atlanta exurb counties are reliably Republican. I highly doubt that the undecideds there go to Clinton. Those voters are more likely to be blue collar than white collar.

Huh? Those counties are filled with upper middle-class whites in McMansion developments.

It depends.... Hall County, where several family members live, is filled with poultry processing plants, and although there are McMansion developments, there is a large blue collar component as well and 26% Latino population....

I'm sure there are some other counties in Exurban Atlanta that you could pull up that have a higher chunk of upper-middle class Anglos in McMansions, but its a bit of a generalization to throw all exurban counties into the same chicken pot...

[NOVA Green]

So does anyone know what the AJC defines as "Metro Atlanta" versus "Atlanta Exurbs"?

You have so many counties that are part of the SMSA, but in order to get these numbers my thought would be that Hillary is well exceeding Obama '08 numbers in Fulton, De Kalb, and Clayton.

Narrowly ahead in Gwinnett, close to even in Cobb/Henry and running significantly better than Obama in "Exurban Atlanta".

One of the other interesting things in the crosstabs indicate a (44-34 Clinton) lead in SE Georgia.... Maybe my math is all wrong but I'm trying to figure out that is possible, unless Hillary has dramatically improved numbers of rural Whites in SE GA.

[NOVA Green]

^^^ OK, I adjusted my original estimates and redid what is apparently their exact boundaries. A couple of counties (like Baldwin) were not in those crosstabs and with them being on the boundary or 2 or more regions, I just put them in the region that made the most sense. Some of those boundaries they have are stupid, in my opinion. Nevertheless, the 2008 numbers in these regions compared to what I tried to guestimate were hardly different (save for the exurbs).
 
At any rate, here are the boundaries and the results:



The Southeast (particularly along the coast) is the most "moderate" portion of Georgia in terms of the aggregate of political attitudes; everywhere else that seems moderate based on election results is merely the result of a roughly split, very polarized electorate. Because of this, it's not a huge shock to see Clinton performing better here in the poll relative to 2008 (based on margin) than in any other area.

Overall, though, Clinton's margins relative to Obama's in 2008 are more improved in southern Georgia than in northern Georgia, and this isn't necessarily surprising. When people talk about white voters "coming home" and the old Dixiecrats that might still be out there, they are disproportionately going to be in South Georgia (and perhaps even more so in that SE region, although they'll be further inland/in the Onion Belt rather than along the coast; think Barrow's CD).

You also see the highest number of undecideds in these two regions (20% in "Southwest" & "Southeast" combined, compared to 13% in the other three regions combined), and that very well may be due to the older white voters who are contemplating returning to the fold and going back to their old ways instead of instinctively opposing Democrats like they have under Obama. At the end of the day, though, they may very well vote how they did in 2008/2012; it's definitely normal in Georgia for the bulk of undecideds to pour into the GOP at the last minute, but seeing a higher-than-average share of them clustered in this part of the state gives me a bit of hope.

At the end of the day, though, this could just be funny margins of error and the result of small sample sizes in this part of the state.

Excellent analysis and breakdown and we will need to see more polls out of Georgia with regional breakdowns, but it does seem that maybe Hillary does have some appeal with White rural voters in SW and SE Georgia that can bring some of these ancestral Democratic voters back home.

If so, combined with increased performance in Metro Atlanta, than Georgia could likely vote Democrat in November, even with the 3rd Party vote...