It's the economy, stupid (user search)
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  It's the economy, stupid (search mode)
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Author Topic: It's the economy, stupid  (Read 1322 times)
muon2
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« on: August 05, 2004, 10:55:45 PM »

At less than 100 days I don't think it matters much anymore.  Too little too late.  Anything now won't be recognized as a trend.  Maybe it will help Bush in history's consideration though because if more people find employment Bush will be able to avoid the stigma of Herbert Hoover and be remembered as the second president in the history of the US that had more jobs lost than created during their presidenicy.
I agree, Bush 41 had the problem of a growing economy in the 3rd quarter of 1992, but it didn't register in Nov. On the other hand, there has been strong growth for the last year, with job growth over the last two months. Bush's campaign is correct to stress that record.

News from the last three months won't help much, but raising awareness on the first half of the year has been shown to be meaningful in November. Statisically a rising economy in the first half of the election year predicts a win for the incumbent party about 3/4 of the time.
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