Ireland Election 2007

[Јas]

Vincent Browne: My first question has nothing to do with the planning tribunal. When you were making full disclosure of your financial dealings last September, in your interview with Bryan Dobson on RTÉ and in your subsequent Dáil statements, why did you not disclose then that you received £30,000 in sterling in cash from Michael Wall in your office in St Luke's on the 2nd of December 1994, that was three days before you were expected to be elected taoiseach for the first time? Nothing to do with the tribunal?

Bertie Ahern: Vincent, I will deal with all those issues but that money was not money for me. It was money for his affairs, in his house. I hope that answers the question.

Browne: No it doesn't . . . first of all you took the money and put it in your own bank safe and secondly it was lodged in an account of your then partner. So this was money that either you or your partner then received. Now why didn't you tell us about this last September when you were purportedly revealing all?

Ahern: I revealed last year all of the issues that were relevant to me. The money you are talking about and the money that has been in the public domain was his money, money administered by Celia Larkin on his behalf.

And I think nobody wants this issue, all of these issues, resolved more than me. But my view Vincent is, there is a place to do this. That's in the tribunal.

From my point of view I think the Irish people deserve a campaign on issues. This tribunal is not about my affairs. It is about whether I received money from Owen O'Callaghan, or did I do something about blocking Quarryvale. That is nothing to do with money that was given by a person who was purchasing a house I subsequently rented.

There is no accusation against me whatever about Michael Wall or about renting a house. The accusation is about the O'Callaghan case, and people know that I have always been interested in public service, not private gain, and in this campaign I trust the Irish people will see through the politics of this, and there is nothing in the politics of this that I am guilty of. (Big cheer and applause)

Browne: I for one accept that you are entirely innocent of the allegations made in respect of Owen O'Callaghan, and I accept your word and that is not an issue. The issue I am exploring is to do with the 30,000 and apparently you are alleging, or you are claiming, that the 30,000 was for the renovation of a house in which you were putting 50,000 towards that, a total of 80,000 for the renovation of a house that was worth no more than 140,000 or 150,000 at the time when the house was only three or four years old at the time.

Your credibility comes into question in that regard. What were you doing committing to put 50,000 into the renovation of a house you were purporting merely to rent, albeit with a purchase option? A lot of people don't find it credible that that money was for the purpose - 80,000 for the purpose of renovation of a house worth about 140,000, a four-year-old house.

Ahern: Well, Vincent you read the transcript obviously, that is quite clear. And as you know that isn't what was spent on the house. That isn't what was spent on the house.

Browne: I know it isn't. But that is what the money was for . . .

Ahern: Vincent, I have given all of the detail to the tribunal and I have explained that. That was not my money. It was Mr Wall's money administered by Celia Larkin and I have given all the details on that. The issues that I gave out last year were the issues that were my money and I have given all of those details, Vincent, and the rest of the questions I will deal with it at the Mahon tribunal

Browne: It is incredible that that money was for the purpose of renovations of a house (PJ Mara, Fianna Fáil director of elections, signals for Vincent to wrap up) . . . I am sorry PJ. Might I remind PJ that 20 years ago at Fianna Fáil press conferences we attempted to press the then leader of Fianna Fáil on his financial affairs and we were obstructed in doing so. We were obstructed in doing so again in 1989 and I hope Fianna Fáil has changed and there won't be obstruction in doing so now.

The problem about this money that you got from Michael Wall is that is ain't credible that it is for the purposes of the renovation of a house. The house is a new house. You are saying that that 30,000 was for the renovation of a new house worth only four times that, and that he was going to rent that house to you for merely 450 a month and that in addition you were going to put 50,000 into the renovation of a house you weren't going to own at that time.

Ahern: If you read the transcript which you obviously did, it shows precisely that he spent some money on the house. But it's his money and his house . . . surely I am not responsible. If Vincent Browne bought the house and Vincent Browne got somebody to administer money for that house and that person administers the money on that house and the bills are all sent to a tribunal. All the bills relating to that money were all given to a tribunal . . . therefore should I be answering that? That is an unreasonable position. (Applause)

Browne: Let me confine the question to why did you put 50,000 into the renovation of a house you were merely going to rent?

Ahern: But Vincent, I didn't.

Browne: I know you didn't but you undertook it.

Ahern: Because if I have money in my own account Vincent and I want to have money to do something in my own accounts . . . within my own savings . . . what is wrong with me doing that? Is it illegal for me to allocate within my own income why I should have money available to meet with something? (Cheers)

Browne: But you would undertake . . . and I know you didn't do so eventually . . . To invest £50,000 in the renovation of a house worth £150,000, a house that you were merely going to rent, is that credible?

Ahern: But Vincent, it didn't happen.

Browne: I know it but . . .

Ahern: But why you ask me. If I had money allocated

PJ Mara: Vincent . . .

Ahern: Let's be frank about this, this has nothing to do with the tribunal. Michael Wall and Celia Larkin in my view - nothing to do with the tribunal. When I allocated my money for uses . . . I'm entitled to do that. I earned the money. I got some of it from friends. It was my money. Are you questioning that I shouldn't be allowed to use my . . .? Vincent, I don't want to say about it . . . (applause and cheers)

[Јas]

Remarkable scenes, but still no clear answers (or at least - not clear enough). As opposed to that subject, Ahern was almost delighted to take questions on the ongoing national nurse's dispute and the stamp duty u-turn.

The other parties have almost refused to touch the Bertiegate issue, almsot certainly because of the public reaction to Bertiegate I last autumn which saw an unexplainable significant rise in support for the Taoiseach. New polls are expected weekly now until the election so hopefully a read can be gotten on public opinion on this matter soon.

In any normal state of affairs, this whole week has been catastrophic for FF. In amongt all this, the public chastisement of the governments dealing with the health services by FF TD Noel O'Flynn has been almost buried.

Potentially FF could (and maybe on the back of such a campaign - should)  be destroyed in the election. The Irish people have shown themselves more than willing to put up with this sort of thing, but I keenly await what the vox populi will eventually say in the polls and at the ballot box.


(Cartoon by Martin Turner of the Irish Times)

[Јas]

Lansdowne poll published in the Irish Examiner today.
(Change since previous Lansdowne/Examiner poll last September)

FF 37 (-2)
FG 26 (+2)
Lab 13 (+3)
PD 2 (-4)
Green 6 (0)
SF 8 (-1)
Ind 9 (+3)

The poll was conducted last Tuesday. Sample size of 1000.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Unsurprisingly the Media is once again going on about an issue which few actually seem to care about... *sigh*.

92% of people want this election to be about Political ISSUES. Not Bertie's house.

And McDowell's recent stunt is a joke. Trying to recreate what he did in 2002.. well, Michael that can only work once.

What are the odds on the PDs winning no seats - might be a good bet?

[minionofmidas]

So, are you updating your predictions, Jas?

(Avatar in honor of upcoming election, btw.)

[Tetro Kornbluth]

So, are you updating your predictions, Jas?

(Avatar in honor of upcoming election, btw.)

Jas would probably know more than me but at this stage I give this (optimistic) prediction:

FF: 63
FG: 47
Lab: 23
SF: 9
Green: 9
PD: 3
Soc: 2
Ind: 10

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Oh, just in case you are curious The Political compass has published a chart of where it thinks all of Ireland's seven major parties lie. It can be see here:
http://www.politicalcompass.org/ireland

Admittely I have some doubts about it. The PDs now being in the "libertarian" section being the main one, but imo it's alot more accurate than most of their other charts.

[minionofmidas]

When do nominations close?

[Јas]

First things first, another poll out. Conducted between last Monday and Wednesday (before the fiasco of Thursday and Friday), for the Sunday Business Post by Red C.
Sample size: 1300

(Change on 22 April)
FF 37 (+2)
FG 26 (-1)
Lab 12 (+1)
PD 2 (-1)
Green 8 (-1)
SF 8 (0)
Other 7 (0)

Unsurprisingly the Media is once again going on about an issue which few actually seem to care about... *sigh*.

92% of people want this election to be about Political ISSUES. Not Bertie's house.

Well, I don't know how many other people care, but I do. I guess we'll have to wait on polling conducted from today onwards to get a sense of the remiander of the public.

And McDowell's recent stunt is a joke. Trying to recreate what he did in 2002.. well, Michael that can only work once.

Just to fill others in, yesterday evening, it seemed almost certain (to RTE anyway) that the PDs were about to announce they were pulling out of government with immediate effect. Apparantly the recent revelations about Bertie and his finances were to break the camel's back. The PDs were in closed meeting for quite some time and it seems the party president Tom Parlon (TD for Laois-Offaly) was the man who stood firmly against the withdrawal. This morning PD leader Michael McDowell (TD; Dublin SE) announced that they would remain in government but wanted a full statement by Ahern on the affair to clarify all matters.

In the 2002 General, the moment of the campaign was when McDowell began the no to one party government campaign when polls suggested that FF were set for an overall majority. The ploy worked and the PDs entered government under the guise of a 'watchdog' on FF.

It should be noted that during Bertiegate I, the PDs were widely reported to be on the verge of leaving the government, until the public opinion seemed to suggest satisfaction with the Taoiseach's explanation.

As to their current decision, I'm noit sure it was as much of a stunt as some. They were in a no win situation, and it seems Parlon convinced them back from the brink due to the necessity for FF transfers in the election (though this would seem more important for the non-Dublin PDs).

What are the odds on the PDs winning no seats - might be a good bet?

Paddy Power will give you 10-1 on that.

I'm now of the opinion that there is no safe PD seat. Their status as watchdog is blown out of the water. Their move to the brink can't help with transfers from FF, and their ability to get transfers from elsewhere is limited.

Yet, with all that, I still think that the PDs will have a presence in the next Dail - for now.

[Јas]

So, are you updating your predictions, Jas?

Absolutely, I've been tinkering with them fairly continuously since I first posted them, but given the past week I'll probably need a few significant shifts. Up until this weekend, I really didn't see any chance that a FG led coalition could get the required numbers - now I think the race is wide open.

Indeed, Bertie could become radioactive. If the recent revelations stick mud to him, it's unlikely that FF will be able to find a willing coalition partner (with the possible exception of SF supporting a FF minority).

I'd note that the odds on Brian Cowen (Minister for Finance; FF; Laois-Offaly) becoming the next Taoiseach have dropped very significantly over recent days. Ahern's leadership of the party has never really been in question in 10 years - all of sudden the cards are in the air and could land anywhere.

[Јas]

So, are you updating your predictions, Jas?

(Avatar in honor of upcoming election, btw.)

Jas would probably know more than me but at this stage I give this (optimistic) prediction:

FF: 63
FG: 47
Lab: 23
SF: 9
Green: 9
PD: 3
Soc: 2
Ind: 10

Certainly nothing ridiculous about it. Very possible if FF don't turn the ship around.

When do nominations close?

Not certain, but I think it's next Wednesday.

[Јas]

OK, I have to ask: What's with the new name Lewis of Bettystown?

[minionofmidas]

OK, I have to ask: What's with the new name Lewis of Bettystown?

"of"?

Bettystown is where the father of my student exchange partner from 14 years ago is originally from, and serves as a standin for Trondheim, which is not in Ireland.

[Hash]

So FF will probably win the plurality but FG-LAB-GRN can form a coalition to govern?

[minionofmidas]

So FF will probably win the plurality

Almost certainly. Have they ever not done that post 32?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Might, might not. Probably not, actually, but then a continued FF-PD coalition is perhaps no more realistic. Wait and see...

[Јas]

OK, I have to ask: What's with the new name Lewis of Bettystown?

"of"?

By placing the two nouns together the 'of' was inferred.

Bettystown is where the father of my student exchange partner from 14 years ago is originally from, and serves as a standin for Trondheim, which is not in Ireland.

Fair enough.

So FF will probably win the plurality

Almost certainly. Have they ever not done that post 32?

Nope. Never really close.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Might, might not. Probably not, actually, but then a continued FF-PD coalition is perhaps no more realistic. Wait and see...

Agreed about FG/Lab/Green. As far as I'm concerned, it's a tough task for them to get a majority, but just about within their potential.

On FF/PD, it now seems though that there is only a negligable chance that the FF/PD government could be returned.

[Verily]

So FF will probably win the plurality

Almost certainly. Have they ever not done that post 32?

Nope. Never really close.

Fine Gael came 5 seats and 6% short of surpassing Fianna Fail in November 1982, the closest any party has ever come to beating Fianna Fail into second since 1932, when Fianna Fail defeated Cumann na nGaedhael, the forerunners of Fine Gael who came first in both 1927 elections.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_general_election%2C_November_1982

[Јas]

So FF will probably win the plurality

Almost certainly. Have they ever not done that post 32?

Nope. Never really close.

Fine Gael came 5 seats and 6% short of surpassing Fianna Fail in November 1982, the closest any party has ever come to beating Fianna Fail into second since 1932, when Fianna Fail defeated Cumann na nGaedhael, the forerunners of Fine Gael who came first in both 1927 elections.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_general_election%2C_November_1982

Forgot about '82.

That was as close as they've come, but even then I don't think that FF getting a plurality of votes was really in doubt.

[minionofmidas]

On the subject of Ireland... historical question: What do the counties of Antrim, Dublin, Carlow, Mayo and Galway have in common?

[Јas]

On the subject of Ireland... historical question: What do the counties of Antrim, Dublin, Carlow, Mayo and Galway have in common?

Can't think of anything that it could be. Another clue?

[minionofmidas]

On the subject of Ireland... historical question: What do the counties of Antrim, Dublin, Carlow, Mayo and Galway have in common?

Can't think of anything that it could be. Another clue?

Economic history. Well, sort of. More like sociopolitical, I suppose.

Early 18th century.

[Јas]

On the subject of Ireland... historical question: What do the counties of Antrim, Dublin, Carlow, Mayo and Galway have in common?

Can't think of anything that it could be. Another clue?

Economic history. Well, sort of. More like sociopolitical, I suppose.

Early 18th century.

OK, really don't know. Wild guess...
Counties were Catholics retained a majority of the land despite the application of the Penal Laws ?

[minionofmidas]

On the subject of Ireland... historical question: What do the counties of Antrim, Dublin, Carlow, Mayo and Galway have in common?

Can't think of anything that it could be. Another clue?

Economic history. Well, sort of. More like sociopolitical, I suppose.

Early 18th century.

OK, really don't know. Wild guess...
Counties were Catholics retained a majority of the land despite the application of the Penal Laws ?

We'd almost have a winner. In no county did Catholics retain a majority of the land - these are the counties where they retained over a quarter.
By contrast, the share in the eight other counties of Ulster and in neighboring Leitrim and Longford was under 5%.

[Јas]

On the subject of Ireland... historical question: What do the counties of Antrim, Dublin, Carlow, Mayo and Galway have in common?

Can't think of anything that it could be. Another clue?

Economic history. Well, sort of. More like sociopolitical, I suppose.

Early 18th century.

OK, really don't know. Wild guess...
Counties were Catholics retained a majority of the land despite the application of the Penal Laws ?

We'd almost have a winner. In no county did Catholics retain a majority of the land - these are the counties where they retained over a quarter.
By contrast, the share in the eight other counties of Ulster and in neighboring Leitrim and Longford was under 5%.

Close enough. Never would have gotten it without the clue.

Today was the deadline with regard to ballot entry. I'll get up the respective parties number of candidates later.

Also, just completed another review of my constituency predictions (see pages 3-5 of this thread). There shouldn't be many more significant changes unless outside events take over.

(Change on dissolution)
FF 66 (-13)
FG 43 (+11)
Lab 25 (+4)
PD 4 (-4)
Green 9 (+3)
SF 10 (+5)
Soc 2 (+1)
Ind 7 (-7)

Some coalition totals on these figures
(83 needed for exactly 50%):
FF/PD 70
FG/Lab 68
FG/Lab/Green 77
FF/Green 75
FF/SF 76
FF/Lab 91
FG/Lab/Green/PD 81

[Јas]

Candidate Numbers:
Registered Parties
Fianna Fáil 106
Fine Gael 91
Labour 50
Greens 44
Sinn Féin 41
Progressive Democrats 30
Christian Solidarity Party 7
Workers' Party 6
Socialist Party 4

Non-Party (i.e. will appear as Ind or Non-Party on ballots
Fathers' Rights and Responsibilities 8
People Before Profit Alliance 5
Immigration Control Platform 3
Independents 73

Total of 468 candidates

FF, FG, Labour and the Greens are running candidates in every constituency. This is the first time the Greens have done so and IIRC the first time Labour have done so in decades.

Most candidates in a constituency: 16 (Laois-Offaly and Dublin SC)
Least candidates in a constituency: 7 (Cork NW and Donegal SW)