Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)

[Omega21]

As it was outlined by Kurz himself on Saturday, this was more of "the straw that broke the camel's back" moment for the FPÖ. Nevertheless, I'm still astonished at the speed this government is self-destructing now. Unless they reform radically and quickly the FPÖ will probably barred from power for quite some time now, and as far as the ÖVP is concerned it's still somewhat unclear whether they will mainly benefit from this or whether they will be consumed by it as well.

There's no reason why they would suffer, they bear no responsibility for something someone not in their party did before he held any Government office.

Btw. do you have 2 profiles now? I remember seeing the same name just on a newer profile

[Omega21]

Former BND Director (German CIA) commented on the recent events.

"Offenkundig wird hier versucht, Wahlen zu manipulieren"

"Obviously this is an attempt to manipulate elections"

https://www.n-tv.de/mediathek/videos/politik/Offenkundig-wird-hier-versucht-Wahlen-zu-manipulieren-article21035713.html?fbclid=IwAR15IfgFkKnR1XiTG2WzboPtXv4WD7XlUUZ03Iuvy5EAh0xFm4REucZp6qs

[Omega21]

Philippa Strache has abandoned her husband and moved back in with her parents and their newborn son Hendrik:

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Philippa-Strache-ist-mit-Kind-ausgezogen/381024623

#Cuck

C'mon now, let's not just insult people...

[Omega21]

Some of what happened today:

* Kickl attacked President VdB as a "power enabler" for the ÖVP and told reporters that he will get back and take a seat in parliament to become FPÖ group speaker. Strache will not go back to parliament, he said. Gudenus has already resigned his seat in parliament. No word if Norbert Hofer or other former FPÖ cabinet members will take seats in the Nationalrat.

* The new cabinet members started their work today and the new Interior Minister Eckart Ratz will already have a prominent role on Sunday, when he will present the results of the EU elections at 11pm.

* The sign "Departure Center" was removed from the Traiskirchen refugee camp today. Kickl had previously ordered the biggest refugee acceptance center in Austria to be re-named to departure center. The last executive decree that Kickl presented before he was ousted was to lower the pay for asylum seekers doing vaoluntary community work to 1.5€ per hour (a key FPÖ-policy). Not sure if this will be suspended as well by the new Interior Minister.

* Chancellor Kurz met with key opposition people today (he actually invited all opposition leaders, but only the NEOS one attended his meeting).

* The ÖVP has a chance to delay the no-confidence vote on Monday by 2 days, but decided not to do so. SPÖ and FPÖ announced that they will only decide about their vote shortly before the no-confidence vote on Monday.

Already suspended.

I also suggest redoing the Austrian flag and placing "Willkommen" in the middle.

Definitely a new great beginning!

The FPÖ still has some chance left to get 20%+ on Sunday if they push this message in the final days, drowning out the negative messages against them.

The reduction of voluntary pay for asylum seekers is fairly popular and taking it back fits the FPÖs „asylum chaos“ posters.

I really don’t know how they will do in the election: they could get 12% or 24% ...

Online they are all-powerful, at the ballot box, I don't know...

Go look at Kurz's facebook posts and read the comments, you'll see what I mean

[Omega21]

Former FPÖ Interior Minister Herbert Kickl (literally, and in full campaign-mode already):

"The ÖVP is behind the Ibiza-video that brought down Strache and the ÖVP-FPÖ government !"

https://orf.at/stories/3125060

This comes as the interim Interior Minister Eckart Ratz is now cancelling several directives from Kickl, such as the lower voluntary pay for asylum seekers doing community work to just 1.5€/hour, or by re-naming asylum centers in Austria from "departure centers" to "acceptance centers" again. Ratz is also cancelling Kickl's police press directive, which mandated police to publish the nationality of every violent offender in their press release section.

Kickl: "They are going back to the same old, devastating pro-immigration policy now !"

More censorship and less information for all, hurayy!

[Omega21]

Note: Tender, what the hell did you expect will happen when you post an image with a clear (C) note?

It's an infographic from the APA. Everyone posts these kinds of graphics. Stop acting like copyright-Nazis, please.

Doesn't matter what "everyone does", since Dave's been very clear on the issue. You're not the only one to whom it's being applied.

And as a former mod you should know that modyfing a moderated post back to its previous state is a giant no-no. 

Rechteinfo Nur für redaktionelle Nutzung! - Editorial Use Only!
Werbliche Nutzung nur nach Freigabe!

"The Editorial Use Only license means that the image cannot be used for commercial advertising purposes. An Editorial Use Only image can be used: In a newspaper or magazine article. On a blog or website for descriptive purposes. In a non-commercial presentation."

Source/Credit:

https://www.picturedesk.com/bild-disp/apa/de/home.html

[Omega21]

What's the reasoning for the FPÖ to ban Glyphosat? This is nothing you would especially expect a right-wing populist party to do. Fighting the EU?

Green voters from Germany shouldn't comment on Glyphosate, you are the reason it got approval in 2017.

In the 1st day of parliament this week, the election date was confirmed.

https://www.thelocal.at/20190612/austria-set-for-early-elections-on-september-29

Also, with the votes of SPÖ+FPÖ+NOW+NEOS, the KAICIID (King Abdullah Center in Vienna) will be closed down. The ÖVP voted against.

https://derstandard.at/2000104769750/Aussenministerium-will-NR-Beschluss-zu-Abdullah-Zentrum-umsetzen

Also with the votes of SPÖ+FPÖ+NOW, the biocide Glyphosat was banned in Austria (while the EU has not done so and extended the use at least until 2022). Glyphosat is cancerous, kills off bees and other important insects and leads to abnormalities among newborns (see Argentina).

https://www.politico.eu/article/austria-moves-to-ban-glyphosate-this-year/

https://derstandard.at/2000104746897/Glyphosat-Mehrheit-im-Nationalrat-fuer-Verbot-in-Oesterreich

Austrian Green didn't vote against Glyphosate???

Looks like you need to switch up your vote Tender, as this is basically one of the most "un-green" things I've ever seen.

Better to drive a 4.0 L Raptor than to spray cancer juice across the country.

[Omega21]

What's the reasoning for the FPÖ to ban Glyphosat? This is nothing you would especially expect a right-wing populist party to do. Fighting the EU?

Green voters from Germany shouldn't comment on Glyphosate, you are the reason it got approval in 2017.

I haven't the slightest idea what this claim is supposedly based on...

Sorry, I accidentally wrote the wrong year.

https://www.euractiv.com/section/agriculture-food/news/greens-save-glyphosate-from-eu-ban-calls-as-epp-deal-triumphs/

The unusual political agreement between the Greens and EPP led to a rejection of an amendment filed by the GUE/NGL group, which explicitly called for “an immediate EU-wide ban on the production, sale and use of glyphosate and all plant protection products containing glyphosate”.

Seeing as the Greens are currently not in parliament, how could they have voted against it?

Yeah, completely forgot about that lol... In any case, they are all the same, as seen in the article above.

[Omega21]

Maybe.

But let's take a different approach:

What do you prefer after the election to happen really ?

* Another ÖVP-FPÖ coalition ?
* ÖVP-Greens-NEOS ?

For me there is only 1 choice here.

I prefer neither ÖVP nor FPÖ to be anywhere near any form of government ever; but this isn't about my preference, rather than about political reality. The fact is that the bridge between Kurz (at least in his present incarnation; if he again does a 180° and stick to that all summer things might look different) and the FPÖ are far smaller than the bridge between Kurz and the Greens. The stronger the Greens get, i.e. the closer they get to the SPÖ, the less incentive they have to enter this government - taking one look at Germany points to the advantages of being in opposition. The weaker the Greens get, i.e. the further away from the SPÖ, the less mathematically possible does ÖVP-Greens-NEOS become - Red-Blue can lose about five points between each other and still have a majority. Right now this doesn't look likely of course, but three months is a very long time. Ibiza could be forgotten in September, the SPÖ could get their sh**t together, the Greens could lose their momentum, the ÖVP's business with party finances could blow up...

In my opinion, at the present day, no formation is particularly likely, and in basically all cases this has to do with the person of Sebastian Kurz.

The SPÖ will not get their act together in 3 months and the FPÖ will still get punished a lot IMO. They will definitely lose more than 5% combined and more like 5% each, if not more.

I think an election result of 35-40% ÖVP, 20-24% SPÖ, 17-21% FPÖ, 8-14% Greens and 6-8% NEOS is almost set in stone right now. Which means SPÖ+FPÖ would never ever get a majority this time.

I also think that getting a new coalition could really take a while this time, like in Sweden.

Right now, I completely agree with you. My point was that three months is a long time, and a lot of things can happen between then and now. But as of the present point, I agree that this is the most likely.

So let's hypothesise with that starting point, taking the middle of your ranges: VP 37, SP 22, FP 19, Greens 11, Neos 7. VP-Neos, the most natural formation, doesn't have a majority, neither does Red-Blue. VP-Greens-Neos is unlikely imo for reasons outlined above, VP-FP is more likely imo but I don't really think Kurz will go for that again with such a relatively strong FPÖ if he has other options. That leaves imo Proporz IV - the biggest stumble block, Kurz and Kern's personal hatred, is gone. There are a lot of people in both parties that still want that to happen, and if PRW is toppled by someone like Dosko after such a disastrous result, I can see it happen after lengthy negotiations when nothing else really works.

If Germany is any indication, going for ÖVP-SPÖ would be suicidal for at least one of the 2 (most likely SPÖ) and arguably both.

If SPÖ-Greens-NEOS does not get a majority and neither does ÖVP-NEOS, I think the best course of action would be ÖVP-FPÖ again.

Then again grand coalitions are even more common in Austria than in Germany if I am not mistaken? And SPÖ seems more competent than the German SPD?

This.

The reds pull left > the Kurz voters who came from FPÖ return to the FPÖ

ÖVP pulls right > the more left-wing part of the SPÖ goes to Greens

[Omega21]

The Kurz-ÖVP wants to enshrine an Austrian's right to pay by cash in the constitution:

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000107113579/oevp-will-im-wahlkampf-ueber-bargeld-reden

What a great way to get some votes for free lol...

Though I support the idea in any case.

[Omega21]

Molotov attack on FPÖ HQ in Lower Austria:

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Landbauer-Es-haette-Tote-geben-koennen/392662350



Meanwhile, people are pissed off about Rendi-Wagner (the leader of the "socialists") having some fun in one of the supposedly most exclusive Clubs in St. Tropez (100 Eur/beach chair/day)

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Rendi-Foto-im-Luxus-Club-spaltet-das-Netz/392636379

[Omega21]

Barring some unforseen event, its pretty clear Kurz will be re-elected, the question is what coalitions are most likely:

Does he bring back the right wing one of OVP-FPO? Go for Grand coalition of OVP-SPO, three party one of OVP-Greens-NEOS.  I presume OVP-NEOS is his preferred followed by OVP-Greens but if neither of those work, which of the first three is most likely and are there any we can rule out?

I think Kurz and the socialists are the most unlikely, as people are very much tired of it.

Kurz Greens and Neos would probably be more liked by people in general if the Greens did not touch anything related to welfare or migration.

[Omega21]

Why is Hofer slightly more popular than Rendi Wagner?

Because he draws FPÖ voters, and some Center-Right (ÖVP) voters, because he was always the "more moderate" face of the party.

He did not have any big scandals and was always more moderate than Strache.

[Omega21]

A 11-person Muslim family from Palestine (refugees) is finally allowed to buy a fancy new home in the Vienna suburbs, after the mayor and many future neighbours fought them tooth-and-nail over the past months:



https://kurier.at/chronik/niederoesterreich/muslimische-familie-darf-haus-in-weikendorf-doch-kaufen-skepsis-der-nachbarn-bleibt/400579064

The family moved to Vienna several years ago as stateless refugees from Palestine. The father was a teacher in Palestine and later had a restaurant in Vienna, which went broke. Currently, the family was living with friends at an apartment.

Nobody knows where they got the money from to buy a 200.000-500.000€ home in the Vienna suburbs as refugees, which is probably part of the concern for future neighbours - coupled with the cultural problem. Maybe they won the money in the lottery or something ?

Nonetheless, the family says that they are no terrorists and will throw a big party when they move into their new home and invite their critical neighbours ...

Wait, so I can just buy a 500k house without proving where my money came from?

I just think they are not investigating it due to their nationality, as I'm sure a Yugo with 500k in cash would not be allowed to buy something without any explanation, which would be common sense.

[Omega21]

A 11-person Muslim family from Palestine (refugees) is finally allowed to buy a fancy new home in the Vienna suburbs, after the mayor and many future neighbours fought them tooth-and-nail over the past months:



https://kurier.at/chronik/niederoesterreich/muslimische-familie-darf-haus-in-weikendorf-doch-kaufen-skepsis-der-nachbarn-bleibt/400579064

The family moved to Vienna several years ago as stateless refugees from Palestine. The father was a teacher in Palestine and later had a restaurant in Vienna, which went broke. Currently, the family was living with friends at an apartment.

Nobody knows where they got the money from to buy a 200.000-500.000€ home in the Vienna suburbs as refugees, which is probably part of the concern for future neighbours - coupled with the cultural problem. Maybe they won the money in the lottery or something ?

Nonetheless, the family says that they are no terrorists and will throw a big party when they move into their new home and invite their critical neighbours ...

Wait, so I can just buy a 500k house without proving where my money came from?

I just think they are not investigating it due to their nationality, as I'm sure a Yugo with 500k in cash would not be allowed to buy something without any explanation, which would be common sense.

To me, the family makes an OK impression and I would not have a problem with them as neighbours.

On the other hand, I also understand their future neighbours and the concerns brought forward by them - even if they are just reasons of envy.

Nobody knows where they got the money from to buy such an expensive house as accepted refugees (who usually collect welfare money from the state). But maybe this is not the case here and as accepted refugees, the father and some other family members were able to get work and cash and a loan from a bank (which the article mentions) to buy the house or part of it.

Still, how does an Austrian bank award a house loan to a refugee family ? Usually, refugees are considered high-risk customers for banks because their asylum status can be revoked within short time and the people deported. Who's then paying back the loan to the bank ?

You are correct.

I would assume they could only get a loan with a very large down payment, but it would need to be significant enough so that even if they don't pay, they can just repossess the property and get their money easily (like if they put down 150,000+).

[Omega21]

If Generation Identity can be banned for being vaguely "extremist" without actually engaging in violence, what's to stop the Freedom Party from being banned for "extremism"? I guess just popularity but only allowing freedom of expression based on popularity seems like a bad idea.

Hear hear!

If America has one thing right, it's freedom of expression.

We are not able to have the same level of freedom, as I would still support the ban on any type of Nazi glorification/Genocide denial and the ban on all forms of Nazi symbols (due to obvious, historic reasons), but I am for freedom of expression up to the point of what I just mentioned, or any calls to action.

[Omega21]

In Vienna, 8 People are being charged with corruption, among them a prominent Green Party figure.

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/8-Beschuldigte-in-Wiener-Korruptionskrimi/397634285

[Omega21]

...  but it is also legitimate to ask if someone who was ousted by parliament should be able to return as Chancellor ... ?

obviously yes, this is the way of parliamentary democracy.. If someone doesn't  have the confidence of the (outgoing) parliament, but wins the confidence of the voters (by winning the next election), and is thus able to get confidence from the new parliament, he must have the right to serve again... everything else would be anti-democratic, its the people that choose parliament, and not parliament that chooses the people...

Hear hear!

[Omega21]

Greens: We are not prepared to cooperate with Kurz if he continues on the path he took in the past 2 years.

(Watching live, so it's not a direct quote).

[Omega21]

FPÖ 16,1
Greens 14,2

Max fluctuation 1,5%

[Omega21]

ÖVP Voters prefer NEOS then FPÖ as Coalition Partners

Which is logical, NEOS is the rich people (businessman) party, and they are not crazy far-left like the Greens.

Still, interesting to see what Kurz will do considering only 1/5 of his voters want Greens in the Coalition.

[Omega21]

The Greens in a nutshell, proving that they are as left-wing radical as their German brethren:

https://twitter.com/stephanbartosch/status/1178350318339477509

Hahahahah

But in order to do that, they need to get in bed with the rich people's party.

[Omega21]

The youngest MPs will be 24 (1x NEOS, 1x ÖVP).

The oldest - and this is the most interesting part - is just 65.

Which means that among 183 members of parliament, nobody will be older than 65.

Compare that with the US for example, which has a young society but mostly old people (65+) in Congress and running for President.

The Greens have a migrant share of 25% among their MPs, which is funny because among 26 people that would be 6.5 people.

I'm only counting 6:

* Meri Disoski (Macedonian origin)
* Faika El-Nagashi (Egyptian/Hungarian)
* Ewa Ernst-Dziedzic (Poland)
* Bedrana Ribo (Bosnia)
* Alma Zadic (Bosnia)
* Süleyman Zorba (Turkey)

The SPÖ has 2/40 with a migrant background: 2 women (Turkey)

NEOS has 1/15: Korean-Indian

The FPÖ has nobody with a migrant background and there's no info for the ÖVP MPs (but looking at their names, I guess none).

Do you know why no other nationalities are represented? Most seem to be Bosniak/Turkish.

Not that I mind, just asking why they are not pursuing a representative number according to the population (like 50% of MPs being women).

[Omega21]

The youngest MPs will be 24 (1x NEOS, 1x ÖVP).

The oldest - and this is the most interesting part - is just 65.

Which means that among 183 members of parliament, nobody will be older than 65.

Compare that with the US for example, which has a young society but mostly old people (65+) in Congress and running for President.

The Greens have a migrant share of 25% among their MPs, which is funny because among 26 people that would be 6.5 people.

I'm only counting 6:

* Meri Disoski (Macedonian origin)
* Faika El-Nagashi (Egyptian/Hungarian)
* Ewa Ernst-Dziedzic (Poland)
* Bedrana Ribo (Bosnia)
* Alma Zadic (Bosnia)
* Süleyman Zorba (Turkey)

The SPÖ has 2/40 with a migrant background: 2 women (Turkey)

NEOS has 1/15: Korean-Indian

The FPÖ has nobody with a migrant background and there's no info for the ÖVP MPs (but looking at their names, I guess none).

Do you know why no other nationalities are represented? Most seem to be Bosniak/Turkish/Albanian.

Not that I mind, just asking why they are not pursuing a representative number according to the population (like 50% of MPs being women).

This is mostly a right-wing problem, as you can see from my numbers. The ÖVP usually has a few, the FPÖ basically never.

I guess the FPÖ doesn’t want representatives with a migrant background, unless they have a German or Serb background.

Among Austrian citizens, ca. 10% have a migrant background. +16% actual foreigners in the country who cannot vote.

So if we just take into account the citizens with a migrant background, then the Greens have above average shares, while SPÖ and NEOS are largely around the average.

The reason why most MPs with a migrant background are Turks, Balkan folks or Eastern Europeans is very obvious.

I guess you're right. In terms of numbers Turks and Serbs share 2nd spot after Germans, but probably since Muslims usually align more with parties who are in favour of open-door policies they are more represented within them.

As far as I know, the FPÖ doesn't really even have any Germans or Serbs in their ranks, they are still pretty Vanilla, although it will be interesting to see Stache's picks if he decides to form his own Party/List.

Interesting times are ahead, for better or worse I guess.

[Omega21]

The „Kurier“ reports that Strache wants to create his own party, called F.P.Ö.

https://kuriermitschlag.at/schlag-zeilen/strache-gruendet-fpoe-die-frauen-partei-oesterreichs/400657718

Frauen Partei Österreichs (Women’s Party of Austria)

Is this some kind of joke or?

It's satire.