MA 06 Tisei

[smoltchanov]

Hudak is a nut, pure and simple. And foolish nut to boot. His 43% in 2010 were result of extremely good Republican year (even in Massachusetts, where Republicans couldn't break 40% in any of state congressional districts for years) and few other factors. He has zero chances in General Election in 2012. Tisei (or Cousins may be) on the other hand is very credible candidate in present district. I think his decision will depends on 2 factors - redistricting and possible scandal with Tierney (there was one concerning his wife not long ago). Despite Republican primary being more conservative then general Tisei will, probably, be favored - this part of the state (unlike, for example, more conservative people in Worcester suburbs) is well-known for considerable presence of moderate and even (gasp!!) relatively liberal Republicans

[smoltchanov]

TBF MA-06 is probably the second most socially-conservative district in MA after MA-09.

I disagree. District that elected Michael Harrington (and before him - moderate pro-choice Republicans), which elects people like Tisei to legislature (and a lot of socially liberal Democrats too) is far from being social conservative. MA-02 and MA-03 (not speking about MA-09) are far better candidates for this title. Even Torkildsen wasn't socially conservative...

[smoltchanov]

Obviously - the best possible candidate Massachusetts Republicans have in this district. But even that may be not enough. Especially - in Presidential year. I have little doubts that he could win in 2010, but that time Republican candidate was an idiot Hudak. In 2012 it will be more difficult..

[smoltchanov]

Well if Romney is the nominee he will at least have an excellent chance of getting over 40% of the vote, so that might be enough to prevent any Obama coattails. He seems liberal enough to win the district in a presidential year.

In fact that's the only scenario under which he (Tisei) can win. Almost any other Republican presidential candidate will lose badly in Massachusetts, so coattails will be strong in these cases. I would likeTisei to win both because i am not impressed by Tierney with his problems, and even more - because i am a heavy fan of "mavericks", and now that usually means (reltively) liberal Republicans and (relatively) conservative Democrats)))