UK Election - Results Thread
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Author Topic: UK Election - Results Thread  (Read 82391 times)
The Man From G.O.P.
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« Reply #50 on: May 06, 2010, 04:20:28 PM »
Lest we forget... the poll numbers put LibDems+David Milliband on a few seats more than the Conservatives
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Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #51 on: May 06, 2010, 04:20:38 PM »
Ah, the Prince of Darkness is here...
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #52 on: May 06, 2010, 04:21:40 PM »
I'm skeptical of the exit poll - I don't see the Liberal Democrats losing seats.
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Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #53 on: May 06, 2010, 04:22:00 PM »
Teresa, it may be a rejection of Gordon Brown, but it's not an endorsement of you...
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
Inks.LWC
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« Reply #54 on: May 06, 2010, 04:23:15 PM »
Quote from: London Man on May 06, 2010, 04:22:00 PM
Teresa, it may be a rejection of Gordon Brown, but it's not an endorsement of you...

Agreed - but she has to say that as a talking point.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #55 on: May 06, 2010, 04:23:56 PM »
Nate Silver projects the popular vote numbers from the BBC exit poll and puts them into his model to get this:
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Torie
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« Reply #56 on: May 06, 2010, 04:26:21 PM »
Why does Silver have the popular vote numbers and we don't, and why is his number 341, while the exit poll is 307?
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #57 on: May 06, 2010, 04:27:22 PM »
Believe I told Al a few days ago that I wouldn't be surprised in the LibDems underperformed a bit (because of movement back to Tories and Labour).  We'll see whether the exit polls are right or not on this one.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #58 on: May 06, 2010, 04:27:59 PM »
Quote from: Torie on May 06, 2010, 04:26:21 PM
Why does Silver have the popular vote numbers and we don't, and why is his number 341, while the exit poll is 307?

He did backwards math; since the exit poll is based on UNS, he plugged the exit poll seat numbers into the UNS calculator to find what the popular vote would be, and then plugged that into his model, which he argues is more accurate than UNS.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #59 on: May 06, 2010, 04:28:06 PM »
Quote from: Sam Spade on May 06, 2010, 04:27:22 PM
Believe I told Al a few days ago that I wouldn't be surprised in the LibDems underperformed a bit (because of movement back to Tories and Labour).  We'll see whether the exit polls are right or not on this one.

This would be more than "a bit" of underperforming, this would be essentially treading water with their 2005 result.
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Torie
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« Reply #60 on: May 06, 2010, 04:28:45 PM »
Quote from: Sam Spade on May 06, 2010, 04:27:22 PM
Believe I told Al a few days ago that I wouldn't be surprised in the LibDems underperformed a bit (because of movement back to Tories and Labour).  We'll see whether the exit polls are right or not on this one.

It is more than a bit really. Heck, Labor with the exit poll seat numbers can't form a majority even with the LD's on board.
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Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #61 on: May 06, 2010, 04:28:50 PM »
Oh, no, here's Piers Morgan.
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Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #62 on: May 06, 2010, 04:29:32 PM »
Quote from: Lief on May 06, 2010, 04:27:59 PM
Quote from: Torie on May 06, 2010, 04:26:21 PM
Why does Silver have the popular vote numbers and we don't, and why is his number 341, while the exit poll is 307?

He did backwards math; since the exit poll is based on UNS, he plugged the exit poll seat numbers into the UNS calculator to find what the popular vote would be, and then plugged that into his model, which he argues is more accurate than UNS.

Well, that's flawed.
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Torie
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« Reply #63 on: May 06, 2010, 04:29:49 PM »
Quote from: Lief on May 06, 2010, 04:27:59 PM
Quote from: Torie on May 06, 2010, 04:26:21 PM
Why does Silver have the popular vote numbers and we don't, and why is his number 341, while the exit poll is 307?

He did backwards math; since the exit poll is based on UNS, he plugged the exit poll seat numbers into the UNS calculator to find what the popular vote would be, and then plugged that into his model, which he argues is more accurate than UNS.

Splendid, but where did he get the exit poll percentage numbers?
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Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #64 on: May 06, 2010, 04:30:52 PM »
Quote from: Torie on May 06, 2010, 04:29:49 PM
Quote from: Lief on May 06, 2010, 04:27:59 PM
Quote from: Torie on May 06, 2010, 04:26:21 PM
Why does Silver have the popular vote numbers and we don't, and why is his number 341, while the exit poll is 307?

He did backwards math; since the exit poll is based on UNS, he plugged the exit poll seat numbers into the UNS calculator to find what the popular vote would be, and then plugged that into his model, which he argues is more accurate than UNS.

Splendid, but where did he get the exit poll percentage numbers?

Via a system he claims is inaccurate.
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Torie
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« Reply #65 on: May 06, 2010, 04:30:57 PM »
The BBC said the swing to the Tories from Labor was twice as high in open seats than sitting incumbent seats. I wonder how that will affect the seat totals.
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Hash
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« Reply #66 on: May 06, 2010, 04:31:32 PM »
What does St. Silver know about British elections and that stuff?
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afleitch
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« Reply #67 on: May 06, 2010, 04:31:59 PM »
If you do the same thing (reverse calculation) you get something like 37-29-23
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Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #68 on: May 06, 2010, 04:32:07 PM »
Why have Ben Kingsley and Bruce Forsyth turned up? And the latter's just done his catchphrase.
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Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #69 on: May 06, 2010, 04:32:34 PM »
Quote from: Orleanser on May 06, 2010, 04:31:32 PM
What does St. Silver know about British elections and that stuff?

Not that much, it seems...
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Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #70 on: May 06, 2010, 04:33:14 PM »
Higher turnout than expected in Sunderland.
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Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #71 on: May 06, 2010, 04:33:51 PM »
The Tory logo still looks ridiculous.
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Hash
Hashemite
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« Reply #72 on: May 06, 2010, 04:34:28 PM »
Quote from: London Man on May 06, 2010, 04:33:51 PM
The Tory logo still looks ridiculous.

About as ridiculous as Cameron's crap.
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
Inks.LWC
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« Reply #73 on: May 06, 2010, 04:35:08 PM »
Quote from: London Man on May 06, 2010, 04:32:34 PM
Quote from: Orleanser on May 06, 2010, 04:31:32 PM
What does St. Silver know about British elections and that stuff?

Not that much, it seems...

He's merely putting it into a model.  And models can be wrong - he's just using poll data, which, if the poll is flawed, so will his model be.
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The Man From G.O.P.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #74 on: May 06, 2010, 04:35:43 PM »
Oh Piers do shut up... Shame on the BBC for not allowing Hislop out there to verbally beat him.
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