Conservative leadership election

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Wikipedia says David Gauke (South West Hertfordshire, current Lord Chancellor/Justice Secretary) is backing Stewart.

[beesley]

Wikipedia says David Gauke (South West Hertfordshire, current Lord Chancellor/Justice Secretary) is backing Stewart.

Added. Not surprising given his stance, but his constituency party are quite unhappy with him. I seem to live near all the dissatisfied local parties, given Philip Lee and Dominic Grieve are near me too.

Wasn't planning on updating, but given the surge in declarations (substantially, but not all for Boris)

[beesley]

Lots of MPs declared for Boris today, including International Trade Minister Graham Stuart, senior Whip Andrew Stephenson and Theresa May loyalist Simon Hart. Clearly a diverse bunch. Culture Secretary Jeremy Wright declared for Javid, Justice Secretary David Gauke for Stewart, and second referendum supporter Huw Merriman for Hunt.

[DL]

Trump has backed BoJo, apparently.

Let joy be unconfined.

Being endorsed by Trump is likely a kiss of death for Johnson among the broader electorate, but among Tory members - does it attract or repell people?

[YL]

Cleverly is out, so they're back down to 12.

Apparently there's talk of requiring candidates to have 8 MPs nominating them.  On current figures that'd reduce the field to Gove, Hancock, Hunt, Javid, J*hns*n and Raab, but a few others are close.

EDIT: Malthouse out too, so down to 11.

[Zinneke]

Is Stewart essentially running for Foreign Office?

[YL]

More rule changes: any candidate needs 17 votes in the first round to avoid elimination, and 33 in the second round.  (Some sources say 5% and 10% respectively, which given that there are 313 Tory MPs would mean 16 and 32, but the statement of the rules I've seen says a candidate with 16 votes or fewer will be eliminated.)

The first ballot will be on Thursday 13 June.

[beesley]

 

New update.

Is it significant at all that Raab only has the support (so far) of three MPs from north of Birmingham (and none from north of York), while BoJo, Hunt, and Gove all seem to have much more support in Scotland and the North?

Update on that - he still doesn't have any, in fact he hasn't gained many supporters at all recently, unlike Boris and Gove.

[beesley]

Nominations close tomorrow.

[YL]

McVey says her nomination papers are in, so presumably has found the eight nominators.

Are the names of the nominators going to be made public?

[YL]

All are in, except Gyimah, who announced he was withdrawing just before nominations were announced.  So there are 10 candidates.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It appears that Hugh Steeply's late bid failed, only securing the backing of four MPs.

[Zinneke]

What happens if the anti-Johnson Tory MPs decide to strategise to put two other candidates up?

[beesley]

What happens if the anti-Johnson Tory MPs decide to strategise to put two other candidates up?

If everyone is honest about their support, mathematically it looks unlikely - it looks like Raab won't make the final round of MPs so Boris has a lock on their pool. Plus it requires great coordination from a secret set of unconnected MPs... don't see that.

[beesley]

At the close of nominations, your delay update on who is believed to be supporting who.

[Oryxslayer]

At the close of nominations, your delay update on who is believed to be supporting who.

Got sum totals?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If everyone is honest about their support...

Ah yes, the famously honest Conservative parliamentary party.

[beesley]

If everyone is honest about their support...

Ah yes, the f, amously honest Conservative parliamentary party.

I  don't doubt that, but we're working with what we have to go on.

[beesley]

At the close of nominations, your delay update on who is believed to be supporting who.

Got sum totals?

I can total up those on the map, but it'll only be accurate for the larger candidates. Will do after today's posting.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If everyone is honest about their support...

Ah yes, the f, amously honest Conservative parliamentary party.

I  don't doubt that, but we're working with what we have to go on.

Oh I know. I'm fascinated as to whether there will be large discrepancies or not and if so in what direction.

[Famous Mortimer]

Under the new rules, the top FOUR candidates go to a ballot of the general public?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Under the new rules, the top FOUR candidates go to a ballot of the general public?

No - that change was considered and rejected.

[LoneStarDem]

Good afternoon. Who's the early front-runner ?

[beesley]

Good afternoon. Who's the early front-runner ?

Here's a map which shows the state of play for the MPs round (expect some inaccuracies due to dishonesty.)

[YL]

Under the new rules, the top FOUR candidates go to a ballot of the general public?

No - that change was considered and rejected.

I don't think they were ever suggesting going to the general public, were they?  It's just the Tory membership.

The first ballot is on Thursday; the bottom candidate will be eliminated, together with any other candidates who get fewer than 17 votes.  The second ballot is then next Tuesday; again the bottom candidate will be eliminated, together with any other candidates who get fewer than 33 votes.  Then the remaining ballots to get it down to the two who go to the membership will be held over the following days.

On the current figures Stewart, Leadsom, McVey and Harper are heading for elimination on Thursday.  I have a hunch Stewart at least will hang on a bit longer, though.