Northern Ireland Assembly Elections: May 2017?

[IceAgeComing]

New elections aren't a bad thing in themselves here provided they have a conclusive outcome.  The real issue comes if the result is along the same lines as last May; Foster doesn't resign and Sinn Fein don't go back into government since unless the SDLP decide to do (which may hurt them a hell of a lot) then we're back to direct rule for a time and that's not good for the whole peace process.  I mean I think that if push comes to shove something will happen to keep the Assembly ticking; its in everyone's interests (bar the remnants of the terrorists on both sides who're just waiting for a mess) that the Assembly and the Executive carries on.

If the legislation for the Assembly is anything like the Scotland Act then this new Assembly would only sit for four years, with the next election returning to its normal date in 2021.

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The change in the quota might lead to a different set of candidates losing though; different order of elimination might lead to candidates who ended up getting elected as the fifth member getting eliminated earlier than the sixth member since they didn't get surplus transfers, things like that.

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There are a few different figures that I've seen; none will be 100% accurate since parties will have different strategies for five seat constituencies than they would six seaters - different numbers of candidates standing in each seat; different vote management strategies, that sort of thing.  Its certainly much more complex than just dropping the sixth candidate elected in each seat.

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Why is direct rule bad?

Basically, its a solution that satisfies literally no one and which is likely to lead to even worse government.  Like a prolonged period of direct rule would just embolden the extremists on both sides and while I doubt that we'd ever get back to the Troubles again, even a slight uptick in violence is a bad thing.

Besides, a large powerful central government governs worse nine times in ten than a devolved government and assembly, even one as dysfunctional as Northern Irelands...

[IceAgeComing]

Who is likely to benefit from this scandal/ensuing election? I understand that NI politics aren't especially volatile, and people don't really change camps. With that in mind, will the election just be status quo, or will we see smaller sectarian parties and the non sectarian parties benefit at the expense of the Big Four (Two?)

There's no polling (although I'm pretty sure the quality of NI polling isn't too great) so who knows at this point - my hunch would be that the DUP might drop a bit with those votes going to the UUP and other smaller unionists although those latter votes would probably end up transferring to the DUP anyway - they're almost certain to still be first though.  Sinn Fein have came out of this looking alright actually and I can't see them falling a whole lot if they do; especially considering that the SDLP have only just changed leader and the new one hasn't had any time to establish themselves.  Those are hunches though, and so I'm probably wrong.

[IceAgeComing]

I think that LucidTalk poll also has a pretty marge sample size so the MoE theoretically should be quite small.  It does seem to suggest that there's a chance - a really quite small one - that Sinn Fein might get the most first preference votes.  Now if they did and it was close the DUP would still get the most seats because there are more unionist preferences than nationalist ones and the cross-community ones generally don't flow strongly one way or the other: they'll help each other and maybe also the SDLP and moderate unionist independents (the UUP in the past, less so now I think) but then scatter a bit; in a DUP/Sinn Fein last seat battle those preference scatter between both parties and exhausting and I can't see that changing unless Cash for Ash has really soured hardcore unionists on the DUP to the point of not preferencing them.

The rise in the cross-community vote is crucial though in that the Alliance and the Greens are the parties most at risk from losing their seats in a number of constituencies because of the shift from six member seats to five member ones, so if their votes hold up then it might mean they get over the line in those seats.

The most likely result is probably still the DUP leading and Sinn Fein second and I don't know what that would mean for powersharing: I think that the Shinners might not want to go back into government with Arlene Foster as First Minister but if they don't that means direct rule which is Bad.  If Sinn Fein manage to get the most seats (very, very unlikely; it'd require both them winning the First Preference votes and very difference preference transfers than we've ever seen before favouring Sinn Fein over the DUP) then they'd get the First Ministership which would be controversial in a few places: while I think that we may be in the position of the DUP accepting that I don't think that its something that we can ever be sure about until it happens.

The most crucial thing IMO is that the DUP get below 30 seats; ideally a fair amount lower than that.  That's the number you need to submit a petition of concern against any legislation and change the conditions for it passing (from a majority vote to 60% of the House and a majority of both communities).  Its meant to be used to prevent the assembly from passing any legislation that a community feels is harming their interests (the Irish language comes to mind here as something that the nationalist side might use it to protect) but the DUP, as the only party who has over 30 seats by themselves at the minute, has been using it to block lots of things that only they don't like: marriage equality is the biggest one.  Because of the downsized assembly there's a pretty good chance that the DUP won't be able to do that again which would be good, IMO.  If they get 29 then they could get together with Allister to block stuff but that would require unanimous support from the DUP members: below that they they'd need to attract UUP support and they've not signed on to that many petitions.

[IceAgeComing]

The story at this point seems to be generally increased turnout; particularly in nationalist areas.  Its not like the Unionist turnout has been flat (North Down has spiked and that's got practically no nationalists in it) but in areas with stronger nationalist votes its gone up more.  Currently averaging a 10% increase which is really rather remarkable.

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Belfast West is going to be 4 Sinn Fein, 1 PBP: the DUP and Attwood are at half a quota with no real preferences that they can rely on.

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The BBC coverage is on BBC 1 Northern Ireland and BBC Parliament; find one of those and you're grand.

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East Londonderry might be the one to watch as the count goes on: I think that there's definitely 2 Sinn Fein and 2 DUP: the last seat looks like it might be between Sugden and the third DUP.  Sugden is ahead of the third DUP by 1,100 votes but there are a lot more unionist votes than other votes hanging around.

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Its interesting that while early on in the count everyone was doing down the SDLP calling it a terrible result; yet they've came out with the same number of seats in an Assembly that has been made smaller.  Just goes to show that we can't judge these things until all of the votes are counted...

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Why is South and West Belfast not green.

West Belfast is green on the map; in South Belfast while the Sinn Fein candidate topped the poll they didn't stand a second candidate; the DUP stood two trying (and failing) to get both in: collectively the DUP candidates got more votes than the candidates of any other party.

Also; the question for "how do catholic x voters vote", with perhaps a few very small exceptions, is "Sinn Fein or the SDLP; maybe the Alliance in the East".  Same when you talk about protestant voters: they'll probably vote for the DUP or UUP nine times in ten - possibly the Alliance as well but a chunk will preference the unionist parties after them.  My impression is that protestant voters who are "socially liberal" and where they value those social issues over the sectarian issue probably vote Alliance or Greens: maybe also the Trots where they are viable.  The fact is that the number of people who that would describe are tiny - there is probably a big chunk of the protestant community who are pro-marriage equality and support loosening the restrictions on abortion in the North: but those issues are way, way down the order for most people (the marriage thing might be slightly higher up for younger voters but I'm not an expert and don't know any age-based data for voting in Northern Ireland; although I have a hunch that there probably are a fair few more Greens and the like amongst younger people) and that means that they vote DUP/UUP anyway.