MI Gov-County map Predictions?

[SingingAnalyst]

Right now Whitmer and Schuette are favored to win their party's nomination, according to Wikipedia.

I don't see Whitmer doing as well as in the 2006 map (in which Granholm was the incumbent), but the proposed 2018 map in the OP looks pretty close. I predict Oakland Co. goes for Whitmer, while Macomb and Arenac (shown in non-Atlas blue on the OP map) go narrowly for Schuette. Of course, Flint's water will be a big issue (one of many), which will keep Whitmer competitive in Arenac, 75 miles north of Flint on I-75.

I also predict Wayne will barely edge out Washtenaw for the most Dem county in the state (in 2016, Washtenaw was the most Dem).

I predict Whitmer beats Schuette, 52%-46%.

[SingingAnalyst]

Right now Whitmer and Schuette are favored to win their party's nomination, according to Wikipedia.

I don't see Whitmer doing as well as in the 2006 map (in which Granholm was the incumbent), but the proposed 2018 map in the OP looks pretty close. I predict Oakland Co. goes for Whitmer, while Macomb and Arenac (shown in non-Atlas blue on the OP map) go narrowly for Schuette. Of course, Flint's water will be a big issue (one of many), which will keep Whitmer competitive in Arenac, 75 miles north of Flint on I-75.

I also predict Wayne will barely edge out Washtenaw for the most Dem county in the state (in 2016, Washtenaw was the most Dem).

I predict Whitmer beats Schuette, 52%-46%.

You think Whitmer could win by six while losing Macomb and Arenac? That seems unlikely to me even if turnout is high in Washtenaw. Are you projecting her to do better than Hillary in Western Michigan?

I have not done a detailed analysis, but yes, Whitmer will do about as well as Clinton in West Michigan (and Schuette will do better than Trump; third partied pulled 5-8% here in 2016) and significantly better than Clinton in vote-rich suburban Wayne, Macomb, Genesee (Flint) and Saginaw Counties.

[SingingAnalyst]

Sure enough, MI Dems making it look like a mess:

https://www.metrotimes.com/news-hits/archives/2018/01/16/report-michigan-dems-arent-stoked-on-whitmer-including-head-of-uaw

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They think Whitmer can't win in Michigan because women can't win in Michigan after Hillary's loss? Wth, that doesnt make any sense!

Wasn't the last Dem Governor a Woman?

Yes. Jennifer Granholm.

The 2002 map is probably a reasonably good approximation, but with Whitmer doing somewhat better than Granholm in Oakland and Washtenaw Counties, and perhaps slightly worse than Granholm outstate (e.g., Arenac County).

Is Mark Hackel really being considered as a running mate for Bill Schuette?