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Author Topic: Senate Race Predictions.  (Read 15528 times)
Sam Spade
SamSpade
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« on: October 26, 2004, 02:01:47 PM »

For being a week out, these are my predictions.

These could possibly change on election day in the states indicated:

AK: Knowles (we don't get any polls out of here, just going with gut, though I certainly could change it)
CO: Coors (close, but Rep. in-state advantage will save him)
FL: Martinez (close, saved by the Cubans)
GA: Isakson (not close)
IL: Obama (will probably get 70%)
KY: Bunning (closer than expected, Bunning wins by 6-8%)
LA: Talk to me in a week.  Chances of Vitter avoiding run-off are rising with each day (30-35% now), but odds are still against
NC: Burr (this one will not be as close as the polls are saying, Bowles sucks as a candidate)
OK: Coburn (may not get 50%, but Bileyeu will pull about 5%.  The Rep. DC establishment wants Carson, which is the reason why I like Coburn)
SC: DeMint (will be closer than it should be, DeMint doesn't know when to shut up)
SD: I refuse to call this one.  If forced by a gun to head, will say Daschle by 100 votes.

Net pickup/loss: +2 Rep, with potential of +3 Rep (LA)
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Sam Spade
SamSpade
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Posts: 27,547


« Reply #1 on: October 26, 2004, 04:46:34 PM »

Carson going to lose.  He's now pulling his negative ads (supposedly) and promising to only "debate on the issues". 

Considering he was the one who started the negative advertising to being with, it seems to tell me he's in trouble.

http://newsok.com/article/1347135/?template=news/main

Otherwise, I agree with your predictions, though Knowles victory will be smaller and Burr's larger.  Louisiana will have to wait until next week when I get a better idea how the undecideds will break.
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