Obvious junk is obvious.
There won't be a six point margin this year, and certainly not for Trump. He would be happy to win the popular vote at all.
In mid April 2020, Harvard Harris showed Biden getting 53 to Trump's 47. In mid May 2020 they also showed Biden up 53-47. Quite literally the reverse of what Harvard Harris shows now. I am not sure what's so unbelievable about Trump winning the popular vote. It's not inconceivable at this point.
If he wins the popular vote, certainly won't be by six. Maybe one or one and a half. Not even Dubya could edge out a three point win in 2004.
And Bush was up by high single digits as late as September as well but then the race became competitive again after he faceplanted at the debates.
Well the question could be whether Bush was ever gonna win by high single digits to begin with and if the debates just were there to provide democrats with a reason for why they opposed Bush to begin with.