US House Redistricting: Texas

[Sam Spade]

Not an impossible plan, but from the Republican perspective the 31st is a bit questionable, though Carter will not be in trouble there, but will he serve until he's 80?

[jimrtex]

Doggett found a proposed Republican map.

http://www.statesman.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/austin/politics/entries/2011/04/28/a_proposed_redistricting_map_w.html

The long and short of it:

1. Doggett's district turned into a Travis-Bexar district, presumably Hispanic VRA.
2. Hispanic 33rd in Metroplex.
3. Corpus-based 35th and points north for Farenthold or someone else, his old district reverting to VRA.
4. 2nd district moves all the way into Harris County, and what used to be the 2nd in East Texas is now the 36th.
5. 34th district looks bizarre, linking Parker County to the Hill Country across the remains of Edwards' pre-Delaymander district. Presumably picking up leftover territory after the 21st and 31st districts shrink and expand into Travis.

31 doesn't go into Travis County, in fact a bit of Williamson is included in 10. 

MALDEF is demanding a Austin-San Antonio district.  When state demographers were going over the population before the redistricting committee, the Hispanic members, who happen to be lawyers, were carefully eliciting "testimony" about Hispanic growth between the two cities.

34 can be improved.  Give it Kendall, Bandera, Llano, Mason, San Saba, Mills, Hamilton, and all of Hood, so it will look like a Hill Country district.  Move some more of Travis into 21, to make up for Kerr and Bandera, and move the western stack a little bit further east (Cooke, Wise, and Parker) to make up for the loss of the other counties.   Maybe pick up a slice of Williamson.

[BigSkyBob]

Rumor has it that C115 will be the plan.

DKE in panic mode.

[krazen1211]

Link?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

http://gis1.tlc.state.tx.us/

Base Plan C115.

[Brittain33]

http://gis1.tlc.state.tx.us/

Base Plan C115.

That map has some truly ludicrous and amateurish elements. Basically, three of the four "new" districts plus what the 34th does to the 15th. Surely they can draw a strong Republican map that doesn't look this bad. 

[Brittain33]

Also, that map splits Laredo in two. Why would anyone expect that to be more acceptable this decade than it was last time?

[jimrtex]

Also, that map splits Laredo in two. Why would anyone expect that to be more acceptable this decade than it was last time?

The two representatives who represented Webb County (Cuellar and Bonilla) submitted a brief requesting that the split be maintained.

[Brittain33]

Also, that map splits Laredo in two. Why would anyone expect that to be more acceptable this decade than it was last time?

The two representatives who represented Webb County (Cuellar and Bonilla) submitted a brief requesting that the split be maintained.

How was their brief received by the court?

[Dgov]

Wow Epic Fail.  I can draw a fairly clean 25-9-2 Gerrymander that follows the VRA (all Hispanic-majority districts have more tahn 60% VAP Hispanic).

That's just a mess, and not only that, a poorly drawn mess.

[krazen1211]

That might end up being a 27-9 map. The 15th isn't very dem there. Though they need to smash gene green still and plop a new dallas Hispanic district, which also nicely completely eliminates the last 2 white liberals.

[Dgov]

That might end up being a 27-9 map. The 15th isn't very dem there. Though they need to smash gene green still and plop a new dallas Hispanic district, which also nicely completely eliminates the last 2 white liberals.

There is no conceivable way the 15th survives a court challenge.  They struck down a Hidalgo-Austin Map, what makes you think they'd approve of a Hidalgo-HOUSTON map?

[BigSkyBob]

Also, that map splits Laredo in two. Why would anyone expect that to be more acceptable this decade than it was last time?

A lot of meaningful objectionss can be made to the map. Splitting Laredo is simply not one of them.

[BigSkyBob]

That might end up being a 27-9 map. The 15th isn't very dem there. Though they need to smash gene green still and plop a new dallas Hispanic district, which also nicely completely eliminates the last 2 white liberals.

There is no conceivable way the 15th survives a court challenge.  They struck down a Hidalgo-Austin Map, what makes you think they'd approve of a Hidalgo-HOUSTON map?

While the district may very well be challenged in court, it simply is "conceivable" that the district is upheld. Courts have approved baconmandering South Texas for decades. Failing to baconmander South Texas would result in a couple of very Hispanic districts along the Rio Grand, and series of more marginal districts to the North. That sounds fine with me.

The appearance of the district might not even be an issue.

[Sam Spade]

I'm putting this one into Dave's App right now, but it'll will take some time.

I've only done the Dallas metro (which is where Laubenberg lives), and it is a pretty good (IMO) gerrymander of that place without the Hispanic district (which makes me question whether it will be legal under VRA). 

Basically, every CD (except CD-30, of course) is at least 55% McCain, white majority, and less than 30% Hispanic.  CD-24 and CD-32 are bumped up a couple of points (CD-24 from 55 to 57; CD-32 from 53 to 55, respectively).  I think you can improve these another point or two, but the map will be even uglier.

CD-5 and CD-12 are bumped down to compensate (CD-5 from 63 to 58 and CD-12 from 63 to 56, respectively). I think even a more careful gerrymander could up CD-5 and CD-12 a couple of points (more effectively than CD-24 and CD-32), with CD-5 taking from CD-6 and CD-4 and CD-12 taking from CD-26 and new CD-36 (which is an ugly, but effective gerrymander), but CD-5 and CD-12 are done correctly in that they take in fast-growing white areas in the outskirts of the Dallas metro (CD-12 - Parker County, CD-5 - Kaufman County).

Food for thought.  More later.

[Dgov]

That might end up being a 27-9 map. The 15th isn't very dem there. Though they need to smash gene green still and plop a new dallas Hispanic district, which also nicely completely eliminates the last 2 white liberals.

There is no conceivable way the 15th survives a court challenge.  They struck down a Hidalgo-Austin Map, what makes you think they'd approve of a Hidalgo-HOUSTON map?

While the district may very well be challenged in court, it simply is "conceivable" that the district is upheld. Courts have approved baconmandering South Texas for decades. Failing to baconmander South Texas would result in a couple of very Hispanic districts along the Rio Grand, and series of more marginal districts to the North. That sounds fine with me.

The appearance of the district might not even be an issue.

yeah, but that was back when the Northern part of those districts were overwhelmingly white and needed the Border-Hispanic population to get by the VRA.

You don't really need that anymore.  I can draw 5 Hispanic-Majority Districts in the South Border-San Antonio Area that are all over 60% VAP Hispanic with only 1 "Baconmader", and that's to take Harlingen and put it in a Corpus-Christi District.  Two whole districts are on the South Border (Brownsville to Edinburg, and McAllen to Laredo) that are over 90% Hispanic each and the rest of the map still works.

[freepcrusher]

I remember Laubenberg back when I lived in the DFW Metroplex. She is basically a clone of your stereotypical neorepublican woman (by neorepublican I mean more like musgrave or blackburn as opposed to the old order of republican women like Margaret Chase Smith or Connie Morella). I hated her then and I hate her now, but I actually sort of like her new plan. It makes a lot of competitive districts so that if another year like 1974 happens, the democrats could maybe hold 14-15 seats.

[Sam Spade]

Hmmm...  I wonder whether this is Joe Barton's message to Mr. Lamar Smith.  Smith's CD gets reduced to 52% McCain.  lol  Of course, Smith does get the fast-growing areas...

Canseco's CD becomes 55% McCain, btw.

In DFW, it's a pretty good gerrymander.  Outside DFW, it is fairly inefficient from what I'm seeing, so far.

[krazen1211]

That might end up being a 27-9 map. The 15th isn't very dem there. Though they need to smash gene green still and plop a new dallas Hispanic district, which also nicely completely eliminates the last 2 white liberals.

There is no conceivable way the 15th survives a court challenge.  They struck down a Hidalgo-Austin Map, what makes you think they'd approve of a Hidalgo-HOUSTON map?

The question is whether the 15th has a separate distinct hispanic population on the Houston side, and the vap issue. Texas GOP won't mess up vap again, former I can't tell.

The dallas map probably holds through the decade though. Did they at least get the black population out of the 29th?

[jimrtex]

Also, that map splits Laredo in two. Why would anyone expect that to be more acceptable this decade than it was last time?

The two representatives who represented Webb County (Cuellar and Bonilla) submitted a brief requesting that the split be maintained.

How was their brief received by the court?

The court said we received 14 different maps and we ignored them all.

[Dgov]

The question is whether the 15th has a separate distinct hispanic population on the Houston side, and the vap issue. Texas GOP won't mess up vap again, former I can't tell.

The dallas map probably holds through the decade though. Did they at least get the black population out of the 29th?

Nope.  In fact aside from throwing Galveston into the new 27th and splitting the 14th and 22nd more cleanly, the Houston map is basically identical to the current one.  I don't know why though--doing that is easy and it takes the 29th from a 62% Obama district to like a 55% one that's actually MORE Hispanic (depending on what you add to compensate though).  Through in the rest of Pasadena, and it winds up a ~70% Hispanic district (66% Hispanic VAP) that voted for McCain.

Though the 22nd is probably under 55% McCain now too, and the 10th looks like it takes in even more of Austin.  Yeah, this is a bad map.  Its ugly and pretty crappy outside of the DFW area, which is the ugliest in the State and will probably get struck down out of sheer ugliness, let alone Population Cracking of the Hispanics there.  I mean, the 31st is probably only about 53% McCain because it takes in Fort Hood (Democratic bastion) instead of the Temple area of Bell County (Republican Bastion).  Its not like Bill Flores needs the extra support--Its an uglyness created that Hurts the Republican incumbent.

Though I toyed with it for a bit, and you can draw about a 62% Hispanic district if you take it from Fort Worth to NE Dallas that looks a bit nicer than that map

[Dgov]

That might end up being a 27-9 map. The 15th isn't very dem there. Though they need to smash gene green still and plop a new dallas Hispanic district, which also nicely completely eliminates the last 2 white liberals.

Also, Unless I've missed something, that map only adds 1 net Hispanic-Majority district (33rd and 34th created as Hispanic-majority, and 25th turned into Hispanic-majority, but 23rd and 27th are no longer Hispanic-majority).  I don't think the Courts will allow only 1 new Hispanic Majority District, particularly one that's split between Austin and San Antonio like the 25th currently is.

[freepcrusher]

I like the map, but does anyone agree that the Dallas map is pure bullsh!t. In 1988, Michael Dukakis won two districts in Dallas, the 5th and 24th, even though George W. Bush carried the county by a 58-42 margin. In 2008, Barack Obama won the county 57-43, yet only won a single district (the 30th) in Dallas.

[Dgov]

I like the map, but does anyone agree that the Dallas map is pure bullsh!t. In 1988, Michael Dukakis won two districts in Dallas, the 5th and 24th, even though George W. Bush carried the county by a 58-42 margin. In 2008, Barack Obama won the county 57-43, yet only won a single district (the 30th) in Dallas.

Of course--The County is basically a Bunch of Blacks in South Dallas surrounded by swing-y areas.  Under a Democratic Gerrymander, said blacks were split up to swing more Districts to the Democrats.  Under a Republican Gerrymander, the Blacks are all concentrated into one district and the swing areas are lumped with heavily Republican areas in the surrounding counties.  Its Gerrymandering 101.  He who draws the lines controls the elections.

Although to be honest Obama would still probably only have won 2 maps in DFW under a fair plan (South Dallas one and Fort Worth one), mostly because the rest of the area is either Uber-Republican Suburbs or lean Republican Cities (Garland, Mesquite, Arlington, North Dallas if it was its own city etc.).  Outside of the Heavily Liberal South Dallas Burbs and Grand Prairie I don't think Obama won a single small city there.  You would however have like 2-3 others that voted barely for McCain on the order of like 51-52% that a Democrat could conceivably win.

[CatoMinor]

Doggett found a proposed Republican map.

http://www.statesman.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/austin/politics/entries/2011/04/28/a_proposed_redistricting_map_w.html

I much prefer the 8th district in this map. It keeps my house and the university I attend in the same district. (At least It appears to, the line looks like it goes through the middle of Walker county)