2011 State Elections in Germany

[Tender Branson]

Atfer the techno bubble, the housing bubble, now there is the Pirates bubble.

It will hurt when it will burst.

Probably. But I'm currently enjoying the FDP bubble and bust so much that I don't care.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Atfer the techno bubble, the housing bubble, now there is the Pirates bubble.

It will hurt when it will burst.

I hope it burst soon. One-issue outfits don't deserve to get more than 1%, especially when this issue is so pathetically unimportant.

[republicanism]

Atfer the techno bubble, the housing bubble, now there is the Pirates bubble.

It will hurt when it will burst.

I hope it burst soon. One-issue outfits don't deserve to get more than 1%, especially when this issue is so pathetically unimportant.

The Pirates bubble exists for the very reason that they are not seen so much a single-issue-party than a diffuse anti-establishment protest party.

[Franzl]

Atfer the techno bubble, the housing bubble, now there is the Pirates bubble.

It will hurt when it will burst.

I hope it burst soon. One-issue outfits don't deserve to get more than 1%, especially when this issue is so pathetically unimportant.

I really don't know how this will end. I think it'll burst sooner rather than later...but these are strange times.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Atfer the techno bubble, the housing bubble, now there is the Pirates bubble.

It will hurt when it will burst.

I hope it burst soon. One-issue outfits don't deserve to get more than 1%, especially when this issue is so pathetically unimportant.

The Pirates bubble exists for the very reason that they are not seen so much a single-issue-party than a diffuse anti-establishment protest party.

Anti-establishmentism sucks too.

[minionofmidas]

Okay, so the Pirates exist because the SPD and Greens are a useless and unresponsive LWINO and the Left is tangled in Trot vs Tankie battles that the media seizes on while ignoring them at every other opportunity.
Happy now?

There'll be ups, there'll be downs. The Greens polled a very similar share to the Pirates at their first ever Bundestag election... under much more adverse circumstances (the Left was rallying around the SPD to prevent Strauss) and after their first state successes. I doubt the party will disappear, but I'm skeptical they'll enter the Bundestag at the next election.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Well, there's certainly much protest potential among voters and also much frustration regarding the so-called mainstream parties. At the same time, many of those disaffected voters don't want to vote for an anti-democratic or extremist party. So the Pirates are perfect for absorbing those votes and that's basically the secret behind their success. The only question is whether the Pirates will be able to absorb those voters for a longer period of time.

The emergence of the Pirates is not at all a bad thing btw. Turnout was increased in Berlin compared to last time, especially because a very huge chunk of the Pirate voters came from previous non-voters. All in all, I dare to say that democracy profits from the existence of the Pirates.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Case in point: A colleague of mine originally planned either not to vote or to make his ballot sheet invalid in the voting booth. Instead he ended up voting Pirate.

Bottomline is, more people will go vote, but a SPD/Green majority becomes less likely.

[Lief 🗽]

Atfer the techno bubble, the housing bubble, now there is the Pirates bubble.

It will hurt when it will burst.

I hope it burst soon. One-issue outfits don't deserve to get more than 1%, especially when this issue is so pathetically unimportant.

Yeah, privacy/civil liberties are soooo unimportant.

[MaxQue]

Atfer the techno bubble, the housing bubble, now there is the Pirates bubble.

It will hurt when it will burst.

I hope it burst soon. One-issue outfits don't deserve to get more than 1%, especially when this issue is so pathetically unimportant.

Copyright laws and regulation of Internet will be a very important debate soon.
State will try on control it. See HADOPI in France or other laws putting limits on the Internet by invoking "defence of copyright". "Defence of copyright" is the excuse than States uses to put limitations on Internet, like they use "terrorism" to reduce civil liberties.

[Tender Branson]

New NRW state elections poll by YouGov:

32%  [-2.5] SPD
30%  [-4.6] CDU
17% [+4.9] Greens
  8% [+6.4] Pirates
  5%  [-0.6] Left
  4%  [-2.7] FDP
  4%  [-0.9] Others

49-43 majority for SPD-Greens.

[Franzl]

That result isn't bad at all compared to what it could be going by national numbers... Maybe NRW has had enough Kraft, relatively speaking?

[Tender Branson]

There's another poll out today for NRW by Infratest dimap:

35% SPD
31% CDU
16% Greens
  7% Pirates
  4% Left
  3% FDP
  4% Others

51-38 majority for the SPD-Green government.

...

There's also a new Sachsen poll by IfM Leipzig:

44% [+4] CDU 
17%  [-4] Left
12% [+2] SPD
11% [+5] Greens
  8% [+6] Pirates
  3%  [-3] NPD
  2%  [-8] FDP
  3%  [-2]Others

The current CDU-FDP government would be voted out.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Looks like the Piratemania is giving the FDP the final kick to ensure they fall into utter irrelevancy.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is there likely to be a new election in NRW soon?

[Tender Branson]

Is there likely to be a new election in NRW soon?

In 2015.

[Insula Dei]

There's another poll out today for NRW by Infratest dimap:

35% SPD
31% CDU
16% Greens
  7% Pirates
  4% Left
  3% FDP
  4% Others

51-38 majority for the SPD-Green government.

...

There's also a new Sachsen poll by IfM Leipzig:

44% [+4] CDU 
17%  [-4] Left
12% [+2] SPD
11% [+5] Greens
  8% [+6] Pirates
  3%  [-3] NPD
  2%  [-8] FDP
  3%  [-2]Others

The current CDU-FDP government would be voted out.

When is the next Sachsen State election?

And, while I'm sure this would result in a boring example of Schwarz-Rot or Schwarz-Grün, just imagine a four-party coalition with the Pirates and with the largest party being at 17%. That's the sort of madness even Benelux coalitions don't give you. 

[Tender Branson]

When is the next Sachsen State election? 

Sometime after mid-2014.

[Tender Branson]

Pirates in the double-digits for the first time ever Germany-wide, says the new Forsa poll:

31%   [-3] CDU-CSU
26%  [+3] SPD
16%  [+5] Greens
10%  [+8] Pirates
  8%   [-4] Left
  3% [-12] FDP
  6%  [+2] Others

No chance for Red-Green anymore.

[Niemeyerite]

Pirates in the double-digits for the first time ever Germany-wide, says the new Forsa poll:

31%   [-3] CDU-CSU
26%  [+3] SPD
16%  [+5] Greens
10%  [+8] Pirates
  8%   [-4] Left
  3% [-12] FDP
  6%  [+2] Others

No chance for Red-Green anymore.

However, we all know pirates won't get 10% of the vote. I think Red-Green majority is still likely.

[MaxQue]

Little question about Germany (I hope).

From what I understand, Speigel is a news source.

Is it German?
Is it a newspaper?
If yes, which kind?

[Franzl]

Spiegel is German, yeah. It's not a newspaper, but rather a weekly magazine.

Which kind? You mean its political orientation? Tends to always oppose the government, whoever is in power...would be my opinion.

[Tender Branson]

Emnid is now the 2nd poll to show double-digit Pirate support:

32%   [-2] CDU-CSU
28%  [+5] SPD
16%  [+5] Greens
10%  [+8] Pirates
  7%   [-5] Left
  3% [-12] FDP
  4%   [nc] Others

Red-Green @ 44%, CDU-CSU-Pirates-Left @ 49%

[Middle-aged Europe]

Spiegel is German, yeah. It's not a newspaper, but rather a weekly magazine.

Which kind? You mean its political orientation? Tends to always oppose the government, whoever is in power...would be my opinion.

It's a magazine and a newssite. That's important to point out, because while both are owned by the same company, the magazine and the site usually operate independent from each other.

Politically, it has authors/journalists from various political backgrounds. I think it is sometimes referred to as "tabloid for intellectuals" because of a certain tendency towards sensationalism.

[MaxQue]

Well, I asked that because we saw during a course than the teacher had that as his internet homepage. (He is German, obviously.)