My 2008 prediction....

[opebo]

The Dems are not going to pick up Missouri or Arizona in 2004, in fact NV is a long shot.

Opebo, You ALWAYS overestimate Bush's support.  The thing is, if bush will hold on, it will be because of Kerry, not because of bush.  If edwards was the nominee, Bush would have NO chance.  I mean, none.  Kerry is a weak candidate, can Bush, who is up to his lip in slime, might hang on by a thread.

I'm not so much overestimating Bush's support as assuming a high degree (at least 47.9%) of Republican support.  Its somewhat incidental that Bush is such a likable guy - the base of support is not about liking Bush, its about favoring the GOP and disfavouring the Democrats.  I think you're underestimating the numbers of people who find left-wingers like Kerry repugnant.  Certainly this applies in places like MO and AZ.

Edwards seems stronger than Kerry, but he has his weaknesses as well - trial lawyer (which most Americans realize are the scum of the earth), who is also rather ill-informed and shallow.  Amoral like Clinton, but lacking his intelligence.  I think Bush would defeat Edwards but it would be closer.    Bush/Kerry 290/248 compared with Bush/Edwards 273/265.  

Btw, what 'slime' are you talking about?

I do think you overestimate the level of conservatism in the South-West, Bush only got around 50-51% in AZ, CO and NV.

What state(s) would Edwards get that Kerry wouldn't, I'm just curious?

I don't think I overestimate the conservatism of Republican voters in the Southwest - they're very conservative.  Its possible I'm out of date in assuming the're still a definitely majority of the voters, as the've been for so many years.  We'll see if all these new people swamp them.
Neither Kerry nor Edwards would win Arizona, Nevada, or Colorado, but because I think NM will be so close, I would shift it to Bush against Kerry, and to Edwards over Bush.  Other than that the only thing Edwards gains over Kerry is West Virginia - very likely, and Iowa, possibly.  Three states, and he'd still lose.   And not get a single Southern state unless you count WV as southern.

[Ben.]

 On the subject of the changing demographics of the South West I hear that the majority of Texans will be Spanish speaking by 2010... and it will be similar in the whole of the south west...interesting...

[Gustaf]

On the subject of the changing demographics of the South West I hear that the majority of Texans will be Spanish speaking by 2010... and it will be similar in the whole of the south west...interesting...

With a voter turnout of, say, 40% or so, it won't matter that much, I'm afraid.

[Gustaf]

The Dems are not going to pick up Missouri or Arizona in 2004, in fact NV is a long shot.

Opebo, You ALWAYS overestimate Bush's support.  The thing is, if bush will hold on, it will be because of Kerry, not because of bush.  If edwards was the nominee, Bush would have NO chance.  I mean, none.  Kerry is a weak candidate, can Bush, who is up to his lip in slime, might hang on by a thread.

I'm not so much overestimating Bush's support as assuming a high degree (at least 47.9%) of Republican support.  Its somewhat incidental that Bush is such a likable guy - the base of support is not about liking Bush, its about favoring the GOP and disfavouring the Democrats.  I think you're underestimating the numbers of people who find left-wingers like Kerry repugnant.  Certainly this applies in places like MO and AZ.

Edwards seems stronger than Kerry, but he has his weaknesses as well - trial lawyer (which most Americans realize are the scum of the earth), who is also rather ill-informed and shallow.  Amoral like Clinton, but lacking his intelligence.  I think Bush would defeat Edwards but it would be closer.    Bush/Kerry 290/248 compared with Bush/Edwards 273/265.  

Btw, what 'slime' are you talking about?

I do think you overestimate the level of conservatism in the South-West, Bush only got around 50-51% in AZ, CO and NV.

What state(s) would Edwards get that Kerry wouldn't, I'm just curious?

I don't think I overestimate the conservatism of Republican voters in the Southwest - they're very conservative.  Its possible I'm out of date in assuming the're still a definitely majority of the voters, as the've been for so many years.  We'll see if all these new people swamp them.
Neither Kerry nor Edwards would win Arizona, Nevada, or Colorado, but because I think NM will be so close, I would shift it to Bush against Kerry, and to Edwards over Bush.  Other than that the only thing Edwards gains over Kerry is West Virginia - very likely, and Iowa, possibly.  Three states, and he'd still lose.   And not get a single Southern state unless you count WV as southern.

I never talked about the level of conservatism among Republicans, but among the population as a whole...and I'm basing it on the numbers from the 2000 election.

I'm not sure if Edwards would do better than Kerry in the south-west and mid-west, but he would have made a stronger candidate imo, so you might be right, I guess.

[12th Doctor]

She's an attractive, young, conservative republican and Secretary of State for Florida. Why not?

1) She's 43 and looks like a rat.



2) She's a member of congress

That photo is doctored by the way.  Harris even said that she deon't own blue eye shaddow.

[opebo]

On the subject of the changing demographics of the South West I hear that the majority of Texans will be Spanish speaking by 2010... and it will be similar in the whole of the south west...interesting...

Scary stuff.

[NHPolitico]

She's an attractive, young, conservative republican and Secretary of State for Florida. Why not?

1) She's 43 and looks like a rat.



2) She's a member of congress

That photo is doctored by the way.  Harris even said that she deon't own blue eye shaddow.

This one's real...

[NHPolitico]

On the subject of the changing demographics of the South West I hear that the majority of Texans will be Spanish speaking by 2010... and it will be similar in the whole of the south west...interesting...

Scary stuff.

Que?

[© tweed]

That's even worse...

[Nation]

You guys are right, not a rat. More like a hag trying to look 25 instead of 43.


Even without the eyeshadow, it's still bad.


But the main point of the discussion, she will never become a candidate for President, and I highly doubt she'd win in the Senate.

[opebo]

You guys are right, not a rat. More like a hag trying to look 25 instead of 43.


Even without the eyeshadow, it's still bad.


But the main point of the discussion, she will never become a candidate for President, and I highly doubt she'd win in the Senate.

Very ungallant posting.  Why not make fun of the appearance of Republican male candidates?

[Gustaf]

You guys are right, not a rat. More like a hag trying to look 25 instead of 43.


Even without the eyeshadow, it's still bad.


But the main point of the discussion, she will never become a candidate for President, and I highly doubt she'd win in the Senate.

Very ungallant posting.  Why not make fun of the appearance of Republican male candidates?

B/c we're much more vulnerable for counter-attacks there....*KERRY*

[NHPolitico]

Now, tell me that this wouldn't be electric.

[zachman]

That would be a great ticket, but I'm not sure if McCain would give it another shot.

[NHPolitico]

That would be a great ticket, but I'm not sure if McCain would give it another shot.

They look so great together. That should be reason enough!

[YRABNNRM]

Now, tell me that this wouldn't be electric.

I love it!

[NHPolitico]

yes, she's nothing compared to Granholm

Here's a better pic of Cindy.

[© tweed]

I would take Jennifer Granholm over her anyday.

[Gustaf]

I would take Jennifer Granholm over her anyday.

Yep, you're right.

[© tweed]

I would take Jennifer Granholm over her anyday.

Yep, you're right.

Whoever NHPOlitico just posted isn't really that attractive.

[Gustaf]

I would take Jennifer Granholm over her anyday.

Yep, you're right.

Whoever NHPOlitico just posted isn't really that attractive.

No, not really.

[© tweed]

[YRABNNRM]

Im not really a fan of any of them.

[© tweed]

Im not really a fan of any of them.

Who, in the political world, are you a fan of, then?

[Reaganfan]

Rice, Powell, Giuliani, or McCain could win in a heartbeat. Name reconization, you name it. Even against Hillary who is NOT attractive!!!!!