Puerto Rico Democratic primary results discussion thread

[Mr. Morden]

Polls close at 3pm Eastern.

http://thepage.time.com/2008/06/01/puerto-rico-votes/

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CNN will be the only network doing exit polling:

http://www.reuters.com/article/televisionNews/idUSN2935654620080529

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[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Wow, if it only costs $100k (and thus less split) why wouldn't the other networks do so?

[Alcon]

Worth briefing yourself with:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0608/10733.html

Also, CNN's exit poll might be hilarious because of U.S./Puerto Rico demographic difference stuff like this:

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Yes, in Puerto Rico, that's the affluent vote

[Mr. Morden]

First exit poll numbers:

http://thepage.time.com/

Clinton voters on if they’d be satisfied if Obama clinches nomination: 72% no, 26% yes.

Obama voters on if they’d be satisfied if Clinton clinches nomination: 59% no, 38% yes.

[Josh/Devilman88]

First exit poll numbers:

http://thepage.time.com/

Clinton voters on if they’d be satisfied if Obama clinches nomination: 72% no, 26% yes.

Obama voters on if they’d be satisfied if Clinton clinches nomination: 59% no, 38% yes.

Which really don't matter, because they don't get to vote in Nov, well I think the do, but it don't count. Maybe in 2012 or 2016, but not now.

[StateBoiler]

Worth briefing yourself with:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0608/10733.html

Also, CNN's exit poll might be hilarious because of U.S./Puerto Rico demographic difference stuff like this:

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Yes, in Puerto Rico, that's the affluent vote

So it's a Mississippi clone.

[Alcon]

CNN is helpfully reminding us every few minutes that Puerto Ricans are Americans.  Not immigrants -- Americans!

Have you ever lived in the mainland U.S.?  Yes 57%, No 43%
"Yes" voters are more likely to support Clinton

Do you have any family members living in New York?  Yes 78%, No 22%

Bill Clinton has a high favorability

[Tender Branson]

According to CNN's exclusive exit polls, Clinton supporters there heavily back statehood for the commonwealth, while Obama's do not. Among Clinton supporters, 72 percent want it to be a U.S. state, 23 percent want it to remain a commonwealth, and 2 percent want it to be an independent country.

But among Obama supporters, 57 percent want Puerto Rico to stay a commonwealth while only 34 percent want it to be a U.S. state. Eight percent want it to be an independent country.

[Alcon]

Top issue: 60% economy, 25% Iraq, 12% health care

How do you feel about Iraq war?  Approve 16%, disapprove 82%

Turnout, as predicted, is not especially high

[Meeker]

So Obama should do well in San Juan, and not so well everywhere else? Is that the best guess at this point?

[Democratic Hawk]

According to CNN's exclusive exit polls, Clinton supporters there heavily back statehood for the commonwealth, while Obama's do not. Among Clinton supporters, 72 percent want it to be a U.S. state, 23 percent want it to remain a commonwealth, and 2 percent want it to be an independent country.

But among Obama supporters, 57 percent want Puerto Rico to stay a commonwealth while only 34 percent want it to be a U.S. state. Eight percent want it to be an independent country.

I wonder which of the two positions; statehood or commonwealth is the most prevalent position among Puerto Ricans

The governor, who has endorsed Obama, leads the PDP, which is the pro-commonwealth party; though the NPP, which favors statehood, controls the legislature

Obviously, the more pro-statehood the primary voters, the better for Clinton

Dave

[Meeker]

Turnout appears to not be universally low - it depends on which part of the island you're on. Here's a summary of how the different regions should apparently vote (NOTE: From a person affiliated with the Clinton campaign)

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Yea, you read that last part right. Election fraud!

[Alcon]

I wonder which of the two positions; statehood or commonwealth is the most prevalent position among Puerto Ricans

Commonwealth status has narrowly defeated statehood several times running, but it all depends on turnout.

[Torie]

It is kind of surprising that the dislike of one candidate's supporters for the other candidate that we see in the States has spilled over into PR, and apparently even more intensely. I wonder why that is.

[Alcon]

Bush approval:

Favorable 39%
Unfavorable 59%

I wonder if Puerto Ricans overall approve of Bush?  I never knew the ending of bombing in Vieques had that much effect.

Bill Clinton approval:

Favorable 83%
Unfavorable 15%

John Roberts is a poorman's John King.   

[Mr. Morden]

MSNBC conducted an "exit poll" by telephone.  (Yes, they're calling it an exit poll.)

Most important quality for their candidate:

can bring change 42%
can win in Nov. 21%
right experience 18%
cares about people like me 16%

The electability number is higher than it is in mainland primaries:

electability most important:
Puerto Rico 21%
avg. of mainland primaries 9%

[Meeker]

The prisoner vote, less than 10,000 total, broke 2:1 for Clinton

[Lief 🗽]

Um... why would Puerto Ricans care more about electability in an election in which they cannot vote? That's a little strange.

Then again, this entire Puerto Rican primary is a little bizarre.

[Meeker]

John Roberts is a poorman's John King.   

I think he's getting married to Dana Bash this weekend, so I'll let it slide. He better be back on Tuesday though.

[Mr. Morden]

Um... why would Puerto Ricans care more about electability in an election in which they cannot vote? That's a little strange.

They still care who wins the election, even though they can't vote in it.  So it's logical for them to factor in who they think is more electable on the mainland.  Anyway, by definition, the whole issue of electability is about "Will *other* people vote for this person or not?"

[Alcon]

CNN is going to have a map

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#PR

[Democratic Hawk]

I wonder which of the two positions; statehood or commonwealth is the most prevalent position among Puerto Ricans

Commonwealth status has narrowly defeated statehood several times running, but it all depends on turnout.

Thanks

[Meeker]

Reports of Mayor- induced voter problems from Carolina now...

[Alcon]

Reports of Mayor- induced voter problems from Carolina now...

Any details?  I have no idea of the significance of that offhand

[Meeker]

Reports of Mayor- induced voter problems from Carolina now...

Any details?  I have no idea of the significance of that offhand

Neither do I... just that he's causing longer lines.