Draw the Congressional Districts of the Alternate States!

[politicallefty]

I would expect very aggressive gerrymanders in Massachusetts and Maryland. With DC as part of MD, I don't Democrats would leave a single seat for Republicans. I wonder how aggressive they would be in your alternative NY. Democrats could easily take every seat.

I went ahead and tried the new Pennsylvania. With a breakdown like that, neither party would be getting a gerrymander through. More than likely, there'd be a stalemate and the map would go to the courts. So, here's my proposal:



I generally tried to keep counties and municipalities together, avoiding unnecessary splits for the most part. Each district tries to keep a basic core area except PA-11, which is pretty much the leftovers that doesn't really go anywhere. (FWIW, these districts could easily have names, as many other countries do.)

PA-01: (Obama 77.1%-22.1%, Dem 78.0%-22.0%) I admit I don't know much about the intricacies of Philadelphia, but I used Broad St as the dividing line between the two main districts in the city. This district takes in the areas east of it and moves up in the Northeast Philly. In terms of VAP, it is majority-minority with a 46.6% white plurality. Safe D
PA-02: (Obama 91.9%-7.7%, Dem 90.4%-9.6%) This district takes in all of Philadelphia west of Broad St. It has a 60.5% VAP black majority. Safe D
PA-03: (Obama 53.7%-45.2%, Dem 52.5%-47.5%) This is the Bucks County district (with some of Philly added for population). It should be a highly competitive district that would depend a lot on candidate quality and the national environment. To avoid too much speculation: Toss-Up
PA-04: (Obama 60.4%-38.8%, Dem 57.1%-42.9% This is the Montgomery County district (picking up the small remainder of Philadelphia). It may have once been a Republican stronghold, but that is certainly no longer the case in national politics. If Democrats lose this district, they are facing catastrophe. Safe D
PA-05: (Obama 59.0%-40.1%, Dem 55.6%-44.4%) This is the Delaware County district (about 80% of the district, with the remainder from Chester County). Joe Sestak could easily return to Congress in this district, which would be even friendly than his old district. Despite the fact that this district may have more registered Republicans than Democrats: Safe D (maybe Likely D)
PA-06: (Obama 54.2%-44.6%, GOP 50.0%-50.0%) This district spans all of Berks County, with good portions of Chester and MontCo (roughly 60-25-15). Despite voting decisively for Obama in 2008 and having an almost infinitesimal 269-vote Republican average edge, this has been a very tough district for Democrats. It may be very competitive, but I don't think it's a toss-up. Lean R (maybe even Likely R)
PA-07: (McCain 52.7%-46.4%, GOP 59.6%-40.4%) This is the Lancaster County district (about 75%, with the remaining 25% from Chester County). For some reason, Obama ran quite in this district in 2008. That is most definitely an anomaly though. It has the highest Republican average result, at nearly 60%. Safe R
PA-08: (McCain 51.9%-47.1%, GOP 57.3%-42.7%) The geography of the new state forces York and Dauphin Counties into one district. Democratic-leaning Dauphin County gets easily overtaken by strongly Republican York County (York outnumbers Dauphin by about a 5:3 margin). Obama ran relatively strong in this district in 2008, but that remains to be an anomaly just like PA-07. Safe R
PA-09: (Obama 56.6%-42.1%, Dem 54.6%-45.4%) This is the Lehigh Valley district (with all of Lehigh and Northampton Counties). On paper, this should be a Lean D district. However, Charlie Dent is a very strong incumbent. Even if everything went right, it's no better than a toss-up for Democrats. Until then: Lean R
PA-10: (Obama 56.5%-42.5%, Dem 55.1%-44.9%) This is the Scranton-Wilkes-Barre district, as Lackawanna and Luzerne Counties make up the bulk of this district. This is traditionally a heavily Democratic working-class district. As 2010 showed, it's not immune to waves. However, I would still rank it: Safe D
PA-11: (McCain 55.0%-43.65, GOP 57.6%-42.4%) This is pretty much the leftovers. It's a fairly rural district that doesn't really have any significant population centres. Additionally, there aren't really any areas of Democratic strength in the district, making it McCain's strongest district in the state. Blue Dog Tim Holden represented a good portion of this district, including all of his home Schuylkill County. The new areas are probably too much, so I would expect this district to go to Lou Barletta (as it includes his home of Hazleton). Safe R

With this map, Obama would've beaten McCain 8-3 in terms of Congressional districts. It's hard to say how 2012 would've turned out, as PA-03 and PA-06 would likely have been extremely tight. At best, Obama may have replicated his 8-3 margin. At worst, it could have been a narrower 6-5 Obama win.

As far as Congress goes, the current situation would be something like 5D-5R-1T. The problem for Democrats is only due in small part from the concentration of strength in Philadelphia. Republicans know how to run strong candidates in this new state (see: Dent, Charlie) and Democrats underperform compared to those at the top of the ticket (see: PA-06). Even a fair map like this in a neutral environment could yield a Republican-majority Congressional delegation in an otherwise Democratic-leaning state. On the other hand, Obama himself has shown that Democrats can in fact easily win 8 out of 11 districts.