2017: NJ Gubernatorial/legislative elections

[MAINEiac4434]

The last time the Republicans won a legislative majority in NJ...they were electing people like Christine Whitman.    Whitman would make Susan Collins look like a hardcore conservative.  

I don't really think it's possible to shift the party that far left from where it is now, especially during the Drumpf Era.    A GOP Majority in either legislative chamber seems pretty far fetched.

Susan Collins is a hardcore conservative.

/obnoxious leftism

[MAINEiac4434]

NYT on Piscopo's potential run for Governor:

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https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/20/nyregion/joe-piscopo-new-jersey-governor.html?_r=1&referer=https://www.google.com/

Yeah Joe. Run as an independent.

[MAINEiac4434]

NYT on Piscopo's potential run for Governor:

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https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/20/nyregion/joe-piscopo-new-jersey-governor.html?_r=1&referer=https://www.google.com/

Yeah Joe. Run as an independent.

If Piscopo runs, who does he spoil the most? Guadagno/Ciattarelli or Murphy/Wisnieswski?

The diehard Trump supporter definitely pulls down the GOP candidate.

[MAINEiac4434]

Something interesting is that Wisniewski still hasn't qualified for public financing. A candidate needs to raise (and pledge to spend) $430,000 in the primary to get 2-for-1 matching in the state, and Wisniewski's last fundraising report (in late January) had him only at $230,000. A Politico article yesterday indicated that he still wasn't there, which is extraordinary in itself as Jim Johnson (who has zero chance of winning) has already crossed that mark, if only barely so.

Murphy, even without his $10 million loan, has raised $1.3 million just for the primary, and has $11.3 million and change in his primary campaign war chest.

The initial excitement has dissipated. He's a dead candidate walking right now.

[MAINEiac4434]

Something interesting is that Wisniewski still hasn't qualified for public financing. A candidate needs to raise (and pledge to spend) $430,000 in the primary to get 2-for-1 matching in the state, and Wisniewski's last fundraising report (in late January) had him only at $230,000. A Politico article yesterday indicated that he still wasn't there, which is extraordinary in itself as Jim Johnson (who has zero chance of winning) has already crossed that mark, if only barely so.

Murphy, even without his $10 million loan, has raised $1.3 million just for the primary, and has $11.3 million and change in his primary campaign war chest.

The initial excitement has dissipated. He's a dead candidate walking right now.

Personally I still think Wiz could get into a stronger position in the next two months than you might think. Murphy has already started attacking Wiz in rather shady ways on guns, environmental issues etc. I think it's very possible that national progressive groups start to mobilize in the last few weeks to "BEAT GOLDMAN SACHS AND THE ESTABLISHMENT!!!!" and turn the primary (briefly) into a national thing.

Of course I could be wrong and Murphy will just sail through with 70% +, but I am still skeptical a large majority of Democratic primary voters are going to turn out for a Goldman Sachs guy in 2017.

Hasn't Murphy taken some pretty progressive stances that defang a lot of the left-wing complaints about him, though?

I mean, there are anecdotal reports that Bernie supporters are splitting 50-50 between Wiz and Murphy. Wisniewski has Bernie's ex-campaign manager's endorsement, but Murphy has Bernie's son's endorsement. I dunno, I feel like the Bernie people should be rallying around wisniewski but maybe they're more concerned about getting a Dem trifecta in NJ or they're just not passionate about non-Bernie politicians.

[MAINEiac4434]

This new story from the Observer shows that millennial New Jerseyans may be trending towards Phil Murphy. The hardcore millennial Bernie Sanders supporters are disappointed in Wisniewski that Sanders didn't win in New Jersey. We'll see what happens.

http://observer.com/2017/03/nj-young-voters-john-wisniewski-phil-murphy/

It's not Wiz's fault Bernie lost NJ lmao. By the time the New Jersey primary came around, Bernie was pretty much eliminated anyway.

[MAINEiac4434]

This new story from the Observer shows that millennial New Jerseyans may be trending towards Phil Murphy. The hardcore millennial Bernie Sanders supporters are disappointed in Wisniewski that Sanders didn't win in New Jersey. We'll see what happens.

http://observer.com/2017/03/nj-young-voters-john-wisniewski-phil-murphy/

It's not Wiz's fault Bernie lost NJ lmao. By the time the New Jersey primary came around, Bernie was pretty much eliminated anyway.

Yeah that is incredibly stupid thinking--Bernie was never favored to win, and the whole Sanders campaign was obsessively focused on California anyway. Sanders did about as well as I expected from him. You can't blame Wiz for failing to do the almost-impossible

One thing I've found to be true about committed Bernie supporters - they always think everything is someone else's fault. If he lost a state it was rigged, or his team didn't work hard enough. It was never as simple as "the people preferred Hillary."

[MAINEiac4434]

Murphy won the Working Families Alliance endorsement (like New York's WFP, but not a formal political party).

Congratulations Governor Murphy.

[MAINEiac4434]

Joe Piscopo will not run for governor as a Republican, he will most likely run as an Independent.

http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/03/its_official_piscopo_wont_run_as_a_republican_as_a.html#incart_river_home

Congratulations Governor Murphy.

[MAINEiac4434]

It's a shame Wisniewski's campaign hasn't gotten the attention that Murphy's has, but I'm not even that surprised at this point.

I'll probably wind up holding my nose and voting for Murphy in November.

It's not the media's (or the NJ political establishment's) fault that Wisniewski is running a god-awful campaign. He's being out-fundraised by Jim Johnson, has virtually no field presence, and his campaign manager makes more headlines than the actual candidate.

Wisniewski hoped his endorsements from Bernie people would start the cash flow and it clearly didn't work, especially with polls indicating half of NJ's Bernie supporters are supporting Murphy anyway.

[MAINEiac4434]

Wiz has gone from polling consistently below 10% to 35%?

[MAINEiac4434]

Maybe Guadagno could run for House against Frank Pallone in NJ-6 (my congressional district) next year in 2018 or run for Senate in 2018 or 2020.

Or, her political career could be potentially over.

Man, she's permanently tied to Christie. Her career is over. We're watching her march to the Elysian Fields.

[MAINEiac4434]

Theres no excitement around here in Bergen County. I dont expect this race to get much attention, especially since it'll get called early in the night.

It'll get called the moment the polls close.

[MAINEiac4434]

ROEM HAS WON

[MAINEiac4434]

It's been 11 minutes and there's nothing from Maine and I'm annoyed.

[MAINEiac4434]

Poor Bramnick. He's a good man, but too close to Christie.

Bramnick will win despite the vicious gerrymander.

Kind of like how Democrats are on track to flip the VA HoD despite the vicious gerrymander there.

I love underdog stories!

How do you think the GOP won the VA House of Delegates in the first place in 2000 after decades out of power?

Ohhhh, I can't wait until Democrats gerrymander the living hell out of Virginia. Maybe they'll go on another 120-year run of complete control.

Nah. Nonpartisan redistricting will be very high on the new Democratic legislatures to-do list.

[MAINEiac4434]

Most of what's out is still from blue counties. Should pad Murphy's margin enough where this won't be a complete embarrassment.

Is this a complete embarrassment? I mean, he's winning by 13 points now.

[MAINEiac4434]

You know what's interesting? It looks like Guadagno will take Somerset County, a county that went for Obama twice and Clinton last year. Along with this, she's outperformed Trump's performance.

So, really, I'm actually surprised this wasn't a harsher blow to her and the GOP.

Low turnout, lack of enthusiasm for Murphy.

[MAINEiac4434]

I’m surprised about the fact Murphy only won by 11-14 points I thought for sure 15-18 points.
I think that Kim Guadagno could be a good candidate if bob Mendez is actually charged.

She will be forever linked to Chris Christie. That is not good.

Plus New Jerseyans are much more likely to send a Republican to the Governors' Mansion than the Senate.